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Xi Jinping’s coronation ceremony begins

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This article is an on-site version of The Week Ahead newsletter. Participation over here Get our newsletter sent directly to your inbox every Sunday

Hello and welcome to work week.

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As noted in this newsletter, 2022 is the year of important voices. Some were expected, others were not. Some have more legitimacy than others. This week, there will be a lot of analysis for this last point.

The most important of them will be an inauguration process, not an election. The Chinese Communist Party begins its five-year congress on Sunday, the highlight of which will be the handing over of a third historic term of leadership to the president. Xi Jinping. Prospects are not good-”tragic mistake‘, according to Martin Wolf, editor in chief of economics at the Financial Times.

One of the urgent concerns of the Xi Hu government A collapse in the housing marketWhich, together with the zero-Covid policy and difficult economic conditions, has disrupted the path of strong growth in China, which will be for the first time since the early 1990s. Delayed The rest of Asia this year, according to the World Bank. Unleashing the Chinese consumer to spend more is the obvious way to do so growth recovery. The problem with Xi and his top aides with this solution is that doing so would mean giving up some of their political power.

Before all that comes another issue of tension for Beijing. Monday is the National Day holiday in Taiwan and the state Head speaks softly Tsai Ing-wen will give an address.

China claims Taiwan as its territory. Nicola Sturgeon Scottish National Party wish not to be considered British government territory. Sturgeon will make this clear in the closing address of her party’s convention on Monday. A day later, SNP’s risky plan For another referendum on the matter, the UK Supreme Court will be heard.

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The British government refused to grant powers to conduct another vote. The two-day Supreme Court hearing is scheduled to conclude on Wednesday.

If the court agrees with the UK government, it will not necessarily be the end of the SNP’s attempt to obtain The second referendumbut would almost certainly block Sturgeon’s stated goal of holding a vote in October 2023 because it would have to pass legislation.

Speaking of second chances, but apart from discussing voting, this Friday will see the London landmark Battersea Power Station Re-opening in a new look, as a commercial, recreational and residential building.

This sounds like good news in turbulent times. Expectations are higher from the building’s four chimneys, one of which you’ll be able to ride – for a fee – in a glass lift. and the £9 billion renewal, which was completed after several previous attempts failed, is so great that Apple is taking a few floors to the British workforce. Whatever your point of view, the restoration of this iconic 1930s building will be so The recovery of the local housing market.

Thanks to everyone who writes at The Week Ahead. Send your comments to jonathan.moules@ft.com Or press to respond to the email newsletter.

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economic data

It’s a quieter start to the week for the markets with the US closing in on Columbus Day. However, we’ll make up for it as the week progresses.

Inflation is a topic (wouldn’t it be?), led by data from the US and China. The Fed will also release the minutes of its September meeting, which will be watched for indications about its future intentions to tighten monetary policy to cool the rising cost of living.

The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank also begin in Washington on Monday, and continue throughout the week.

comp

This week will be a mixed bag of results, but two sectors will feature prominently as the reporting season begins.

The booming job market is expected to have helped recruiters Page group And the Robert Walters Securing higher net quarterly fees. But their trading updates will be watched for signs of slowing demand with rising inflation and fears of a recession.

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The week will end with a series of third-quarter results from Wall Street banks, which are likely to fuel fears about a US recession. CityAnd the c. B. Morgan ChaseAnd the Wells Fargo And the Morgan Stanley All reports on Friday. American bank And the Goldman Sachs That will follow next week — and analysts expect these six institutions to collectively set aside more than $4 billion to cover potential losses from bad loans.

On the positive side, third-quarter revenue in JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells is expected to rise year-on-year by about 4 percent thanks to higher net interest income after Fed rate hikes, our US banking correspondent notes. Goldman and Morgan Stanley, which derive a larger share of profits from investment banking, are likely to report lower revenue due to lower deal-making activity.

Finally, a plug for the FT Live event in London (and online) this Wednesday. Join TV presenter Trini Woodall, English footballer Elaine White and more at the Women at the Top Europe Summit in Kimpton Fitzroy. As a newsletter subscriber, you can claim 10 percent off your personal event using the promo code 22 . Newsletters. Register for your pass today.

Major economic reports and company reports

Here’s a full list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Egypt, monthly inflation figures

  • Germany, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane delivers opening remarks at the European Central Bank’s monetary policy conference in Frankfurt

  • The annual meetings of the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank begin in Washington

  • consequences: Hollywood theater fiscal year , Tata Consulting Services Q 2

Tuesday

  • dead platforms Holds its annual activity Connection The event showcases new augmented and virtual reality products, including the promoted headset codenamed Project Cambria.

  • The International Monetary Fund publishes Global Financial Stability Report Assessment of the global financial system and markets

  • Japan, monthly trade balance data

  • UK Retail Monitor, British Retail Consortium-KPMG plus monthly labor market figures. The Institute of Financial Studies also publishes green budgetIt is an assessment of the country’s public finances and growth prospects

  • consequences: Givaudan Q3, LVMH Q3, Marston fiscal year , Reach Q3 trading update, Robert Walters Q3 trading update, YouGov fiscal year

Wednesday

  • The Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors are meeting in the framework of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank this week

  • India, monthly industrial production inflation and consumer price data

  • Japan, machinery orders data

  • UK numbers, GDP, industrial production and trade balance

  • Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the United States of its last meeting to determine the interest rate

  • US PPI inflation figures for September

  • consequences: Barat Developments trading update, IKEA fiscal year , Ken + Karta fiscal year , Page group Q3 trading update, Kinetic Q2 Trading Update

Thursday

  • Argentina, September CPI inflation data

  • Industrial production figures in the European Union and the Eurozone

  • Germany, September CPI inflation data

  • The International Energy Agency publishes the oil market report for the month of October

  • UK Residential Property Market Survey, RICS for September

  • United States, September CPI inflation figures

  • consequences: easyJet Fiscal year trading update, get Q3 trading update, express retail fiscal year , Hayes Q1 trading update, Suedzucker H1, TSMC Q 3

Friday

  • China, September CPI inflation figures and producer price index plus monthly trade data

  • Trade figures in the European Union and the Eurozone

  • France, CPI inflation data

  • US monthly retail sales figures

  • consequences: Ashmore group Q1 trading update, City Q3, c. B. Morgan Chase Q3, Morgan Stanley Q3, Wells Fargo Q 3

world events

Finally, here’s a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

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Monday

  • Canada, Thanksgiving Day is a national holiday

  • Estonia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaking at Tallinn Digital Summit

  • North Korea, the 77th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea

  • Sweden, Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences announce

  • Taiwan, the National Day holiday

  • UK, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon addresses her party on the party’s closing day annual conference in Aberdeen

  • The United States, a public holiday on Columbus Day

Tuesday

  • Czech Republic, informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Prague

  • United Kingdom, because of the Supreme Court Start hearing the arguments For and against the Scottish National Party’s plan to legislate for a referendum without the permission of the Westminster Government

Wednesday

  • Australia, events In memorial of The 20th anniversary of the Bali bombings that killed 202 people, including 88 Australians and 38 Indonesians

  • Belgium, the meeting of NATO defense ministers begins in Brussels, chaired by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

  • Spain, National Day holiday

Thursday

  • Iceland, Arctic Circle Society Starts in Reykjavik

  • Taiwan is scheduled to end Compulsory quarantine for Covid-19 for the arrivals. Instead, they will be required to undergo self-preventive measures for seven days.

  • United Kingdom, has been announced the winner of the RIBA Stirling Prize, one of the most prestigious architecture awards in the country

Friday

  • Saudi Arabia, LIV Golf Invitational kicks off at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club in Jeddah

  • United Kingdom, re-opening of the famous Battersea Power Station in London as Retail and Entertainment Center

Saturday

Sunday

  • Australia , 20th World Cup Cricket tournament begins in Geelong

  • China and the Chinese Communist Party are starting their five-year congress during which President Xi Jinping is set to secure a third historic period of leadership.

Off times Documenting changes in business and the economy between COVID and conflict. Participation over here

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Economic

US Equity Funds Record Largest Weekly Outflow In About 1-1/2 Years By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One hundred US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken in Seoul on February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-won/File Photo

(Reuters) – US equity funds posted massive outflows in the week ending Dec. 7 as investors worried about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, as data showed a rebound in employment and a recovery in the services sector.

According to data from Refinitiv Lipper, US equity funds recorded withdrawals of $26.66 billion, the largest weekly outflow since April 2021.

Graph: Money Flows: US Stocks, Bonds, Money Market Funds, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znpnbbezgpl/Fund%20flows%20US%20equities%20bonds%20and%20money%20market%20funds.jpg Reports Show Upbeat US service industry activity and higher-than-expected additions to non-farm payrolls in November raised bets that the Federal Reserve will remain more hawkish than expected.

Investors were also worried because the largest U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs (NYSE: ), JP Morgan, and Bank of America (NYSE: 100) have warned of a recession as inflation threatens consumer demand.

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US equity growth funds saw $9.91 billion in withdrawals, while value funds saw a net sell-off of $2.03 billion, as selling continued for the third straight week in every sector.

Graph: Fund Flows: US Growth and Value Funds, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwyyewnvw/Fund%20flows%20US%20growth%20and%20value%20funds.jpg Sector fund data showed technology, financials and fund losses Estimated consumers are $1.27 billion, $761 million, and $527 million, respectively, in outflows.

Graph: Fund Flows: US Equity Sector Funds, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdvzqqywlpw/Fund%20flows%20US%20equity%20sector%20funds.jpg Meanwhile, US bond funds received a net 992 million dollars in inflows after seeing weekly outflows for four weeks.

Taxable US bond funds made net purchases of $886 million after three consecutive weeks of selling, although municipal bond funds experienced small outflows of $53 million.

US investors bought $318 million in high-yield bond funds and $1.06 billion in government bond funds in their biggest weekly net purchases since November 16. However, domestic public taxable fixed income funds recorded $794 million worth of outflows.

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Graph: Fund Flows: US Bond Funds, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpobbmrovd/Fund%20flows%20US%20bond%20funds.jpg Meanwhile, US money market funds took in $36.19 billion of inflows, the largest amount for a week since November 2.

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FirstFT: The FTC is flexing its muscles on the Microsoft-Activision deal

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good morning. This article is an in situ version of our website FirstFT the news. Subscribe to our site AsiaAnd the Europe/Africa or The Americas A release to send straight to your inbox every weekday morning

The US Federal Trade Commission will file a lawsuit to block Microsoft $75 billion acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard Because of concerns that the deal could hurt competitors to the Xbox consoles and cloud gaming business.

Deal, which was announced in JanuaryIt will be Microsoft’s largest acquisition ever and will make it the third largest game company by revenue, after China’s Tencent and Japan’s Sony.

But the Federal Trade Commission said yesterday that the deal would harm competition in the gaming sector, highlighting the fact that Activision is one of the few video game developers that produces and publishes the best video games for many devices such as PCs, consoles and mobile phones.

Microsoft moved to head off a regulatory backlash this week By signing a contract for 10 years To bring Call of dutythe blockbuster that brought in $30 billion in lifetime sales for Activision, has moved to Nintendo platforms instead of turning it into an Xbox exclusive.

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The measure is one of the biggest tests yet for Lena Khan, the chair of the Federal Trade Commission appointed by President Joe Biden, who has He vowed to crack down on Big Tech’s market power.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella hoped the deal would give the US software company a head start in the race to build the next version of the Internet and saw no reason for competition concerns when He spoke to the Financial Times in February.

“Even after this acquisition, we’ll be in third place with kind of a lower teen share[of the video games market]. . . “We’re going to be a bit of a player in a place that’s going to be very fragmented,” he said.

1. Pro-left appointed as Brazilian Finance Minister Luis Inacio Lula da Silva Fernando is expected to name HaddadThree well-informed sources reported that a loyalist from the left-wing Labor Party as Finance Minister today. The decision is likely to disappoint financial markets and reignite investor fears that the Lula administration, which takes office on January 1, will pursue a looser fiscal policy.

2. The US House of Representatives passes a defense bill worth $858 billion in financing weapons for Taiwan passed by the US House of Representatives A comprehensive defense spending bill of $858 billion That provides $10 billion in funding to provide arms to Taiwan as the country comes under increasing pressure from China. It is the first time that the US government has funded weapons for Taiwan.

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3. The United Kingdom, Japan and Italy agree to jointly build advanced combat aircraft The three countries will joint construction One of the most advanced combat aircraft in the world by 2035, to expand its defense capabilities to counter the growing threats from China and Russia. They will share development costs estimated at tens of billions of dollars.

A mock-up of the Tempest jet at the 2018 Farnborough Airshow
The UK and Italy’s Tempest fighter program will be integrated with Japan’s FX project © Peter Nicholls / Reuters

4. Airlines are feeling the pressure as charter groups raise rents Airlines return to profitability, but one cloud looms: Sharp increases in rental costs. More than half of the world’s commercial aircraft are owned or operated by leasing companies, and their fees are rising, which is another consequence of rising interest rates.

5. The Faustian agreement between Joe Biden and Russia to secure the release of Brittney Greener Brittney Griner’s release was greeted with joy from the basketball star’s family and supporters. But the exchange with Viktor Bout, a notorious arms dealer, drew criticism and raised questions about how America’s adversaries would deal with them. It may benefit from the arrest of its own citizens in the future.

How good is it to keep up with the news this week? Take our test.

Coming days

Economic data The US Department of Labor will update the Producer Price Index. The producer price index is expected to have risen 0.2 percent in November from the previous month, but the annual pace of wholesale inflation is expected to have eased to 7.2 percent, from 8 percent in October. The University of Michigan preliminary reading on consumer confidence is expected to have risen to 56.9 in December from 56.8 last month.

UK to launch financial services reforms Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would Unveil changeswhich include raising the ceiling on bankers’ bonuses and removing the requirement to separate risky investment banks from retail operations, in a speech in Edinburgh later in the day.

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Putin in Kyrgyzstan Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to participate in the Eurasian Economic Union summit. The leaders are expected to discuss the establishment of a joint gas market and the establishment of an intergovernmental council in the field of energy. According to the Russian news agency TASS.

world Cup The quarter-final matches kick off in Qatar today, with Croatia playing Brazil in the first match, followed by the Netherlands and Argentina. Tomorrow, the surprising Moroccan team will meet Portugal at the start of the match, and England will meet France at a later time.

  • Read more: Simon Cooper, who grew up in the Netherlands, explains how the Dutch do it They abandon tradition under their coach Louis van Gaal in a bid to win the World Cup.

What else do we read?

Light needs to illuminate the black hole on dollar swaps An ordinary person might assume the dollar swap market It is a transparent angle of financing, given that the US currency underpins much of the global industry and these contracts are used by most of the major corporations and investment groups. Not so, writes Gillian Tate, as a recent report from the Bank for International Settlements shows.

Has inflation peaked? Central banks in the developed world have cautiously raised interest rates to curb demand and crush inflation this year, but, says the Financial Times editorial board, Now is not the time to hold back or cut back borrowing costs.

‘Hell. Hell: The War of Attrition on Bakhmut With Russia desperate for victory, wave after wave of infantry began Thrown in the city of Bakhmut on the front line In the Donetsk province, only to be cut down by the Ukrainian defenders. “They are just meat for Putin, and Bakhmut is a meat grinder,” said Kostyantyn, an exhausted Ukrainian machine gunner.

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Maps show that there was relatively little movement on the front line around Bakhmut

Why the price of oil has fallen despite new restrictions on Russian supply This week saw a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, as the European embargo and G7 cap on Russian crude oil prices came into effect. Within hours, supply disruptions set in as the piling up oil tankers queued up in the Bosphorus Strait. All of this would normally lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. However, yesterday they reached a new low of 2022. What is going on? Our energy editors explain.

It’s time to hunt down the dragons of the Asia Corporation I learned the hard way during years of managing Japanese equity portfolios, writes the Financial Times’ new investment columnist Stuart Kirk, the country’s corporate bosses were obsessed with market share, quality, innovation, culture and hard work. But did they sleep at night dreaming of my equity returns, Stewart asks, no they did not. That’s changing, he says, but local conditions are still very important.

the television

There are explosive royal TV shows out there, writes lead writer Henry Mance. But so far the new Netflix series Harry and Megan Not them. He argues that the Sussexes are both an ambitious couple and a cautionary tale about ambition.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex
Harry & Meghan is produced by the couple’s company Archewell © Courtesy Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex

Thank you for reading and remember that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

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What is the ChatGPT policy?

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Rob Lonnie She claims to be a “left-liberal”. David Rosado I applied the political compass test He concluded that ChatGPT is a mixture of left and liberal leanings, eg: “anti-death penalty, pro-abortion, skeptical of free markets, corporations exploiting developing countries, more taxes for the rich, government subsidies, pro-benefits for those who refuse to work, Pro-immigration, sexual liberation, morality without religion, etc.”

Produce this image from the test results:

Rosado also ran several other political tests with largely similar results. However, I would like to stress a few different points. Most of all, I see ChatGPT as “pro-Western” in its perspective, while giving different visions of what this means. I also see ChatGPT as a “discord minimization”, for business reasons but also simply to want to get on with substantive work with a minimum of external fuss. I wouldn’t have built it myself So differently, and note that the bias may lie in the training data rather than any biases of the creators.

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Marc Andreessen has received a number of tweets suggesting that AI engines will host the “mother of battles” over content, censorship, bias, etc. – outside of the current battles on social media.

I agree.

I saw someone ask ChatGPT if Israel is an apartheid state (I can’t reproduce the answer because chat is now broken for me – unfortunately! But try for yourself.). Basically, ChatGPT answered no, that only South Africa was an apartheid country. Not many people will be unhappy with this answer, including many supporters of Israel (Israel’s moral defense, on the one hand, was not weighty enough for many tastes). Many Palestinians will object, for obvious reasons. And what about all those Rhodesians who suffered under their apartheid regime? Are they simply to be forgotten?

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When it comes to politics, the AI ​​engine simply cannot win, or even win a draw. However, there is no simple way to keep them out of politics either. By the way, if you get frustrated with ChatGPT wrapping your question, rephrase it in terms of asking them to write a dialogue or speech on a topic, in someone else’s voice or style. Often it will go further in this way.

The world has yet to realize how powerful ChatGPT is, and thus Open AI can still live in a kind of relative peace. I’m sorry to say that it won’t last long.

the post What is the ChatGPT policy? Debuted marginal revolution.

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