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An already jittery US stock market will face more challenges in the coming week as the government releases its key inflation report and mega-banks begin their… Possibly a mysterious earnings season.

The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) will top the bills in the coming days, with third-quarter financial data from the nation’s largest bank – JPMorgan (JPM), city (c), Wells Fargo (WFC) – to follow suit in the line of importance.

It is expected to dictate a new reading of the consumer price index on Thursday How aggressive will the Fed get? With plans to raise interest rates, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequent economic release will have more significance yet Jobs report issued by the Ministry of Labor for the month of September Suggest Friday officials You have another room for increases.

JPMorgan Chase and Company President and CEO Jamie Dimon testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on the

JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies at Capitol Hill in Washington, US, September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)

The US economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the previous reading but still a solid employment figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. A weaker-than-expected decline in salary gains has dashed investor hopes that FOMC members may walk away from monetary tightening sooner than expected.

That’s the truth Led stocks higher on Friday. S&P 500 Index (^ Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat(Down 2.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average)^ DJI(Gives up 630 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index)^ ninth) led the way down 3.8%. The major averages managed to close higher for the week after three consecutive weeks of declines after holding some gains from a passing rally in the first two trading days of October.

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“Continuing strength in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, means that the Fed is unlikely to turn in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” the bank’s analysts said. America in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth increase of 75 basis points in November.

This week’s inflation reading could confirm such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline CPI for September is expected to show a slight moderation on the annual figure to 8.1%. From 8.3% in Augustbut increasing to 0.2% from 0.1% during the month.

All eyes will be on the report’s “core” component, which excludes volatile food and energy categories. The Bloomberg Project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% during the year, but eased to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.

The marginal fluctuations in the data were not reassuring enough for Fed members that they could walk away from intervening anytime soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Inflation is called an erosion disease. and “a toxic substance that erodes people’s real purchasing power.”

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A banner for the Federal Reserve Board is seen at the entrance to the William McKisney Martin Jr Building before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference on interest rate policy, in Washington, US, September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarck

A banner for the Federal Reserve Board is seen at the entrance to the William McKisney Martin Jr Building before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference on interest rate policy, in Washington, US, September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarck

Elsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a measure of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the Producer Price Index, or PPI, which measures the change in prices paid to producers of goods and services in the United States; A reading on consumer spending performance amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government retail sales report; He examined consumer sentiment from a closely watched University of Michigan survey.

Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season that is expected to be filled with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their business, trimmed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results due to price and price pressures. Companies have been overburdened in the last three months.

Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are all available for the next week and Goldman Sachs will follow (pand Bank of Americabuck) Next week.

The CEOs of the nation's largest banks are sworn in at the start of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs hearing on

CEOs of the nation’s largest banks are sworn in at the start of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs session on “Annual Oversight of the Nation’s Largest Banks,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hochstein

Banks typically benefit from a tightening of central bank policy, as higher interest rates boost net interest income (a bank’s earnings from lending activities and the interest it pays to depositors) and net interest margins (calculated by dividing net interest income by average income earned from interest-producing assets). However, tough market conditions that have dealt a blow to deal-making activity and general macroeconomic uncertainty are poised to offset higher net interest income.

Analysts at Bank of America expect earnings growth across banks and brokers to slow to 2.0% year-over-year in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second and 7.7% in the third, according to estimates by a bottom-up consensus, according to a recent note. .

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However, this decline pales in comparison to expectations for sectors outside of the financial sector – with the exception of the energy sector – according to BofA. The bank warned in a note that earnings growth in those areas is “expected to fall well into negative territory,” with growth forecast of -4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from -1.3% in the second. a fourth.

Economic calendar

Monday: There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Tuesday: Small business optimism NFIBSeptember (expect 91.8, 91.8 over the previous month); monthly budget statementSeptember (- $219.6 billion)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applicationsweek ending October 7 (-14.2% over the previous week); PPI excluding food and energyYoY, September (7.3% expected, 7.3% over the previous month); Final request PPIMoM, Sep (0.2% expected, -0.1% over the previous month); PPI excluding food and energyMoM, Sep (0.3% expected, 0.4% over the previous month); PPI excluding food, energy and tradeMoM, Sep (0.2% expected, 0.2% over the previous month); Final request PPIYoY, September (8.4% expected, 8.7% over the previous month); PPI excluding food, energy and tradeYoY, Sep (5.6% over the previous month); Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutesSeptember 21

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Thursday: Consumer Price IndexMoM, Sep (0.2% expected, 0.1% over the previous month); CPI excluding food and energyMoM, Sep (0.4% expected, 0.6% over the previous month); Consumer Price IndexYoY, Sep (8.1% expected, 8.3% over the previous month); CPI excluding food and energyYoY, September (6.5% expected, 6.3% over the previous month); CPI NSASeptember (expect 296,417, 296,171 over the previous month); CPI Core Index SASep (296.950 over the previous month); Unemployment Complaints Ratesweek ending October 8 (expect 225,000, 219,000 over the previous week); Ongoing Claimsthe week ending October 1 (1.361 during the previous week); Real average weekly earningsYoY, Sep (-3.4% over the previous month)

Friday: Retail sales progressMoM, Sep (0.2% expected, 0.3% over the previous month); Retail sales excluding carsMoM, Sep (-0.1% expected, -0.3% over the previous month); Retail sales excluding cars and gasMoM, Sep (0.3% over the previous month); retail sales control groupSeptember (0.0% over the previous month); import price indexMoM, Sep (expected -1.1%, -1.0% over the previous month); Import price index excluding petroleumMoM, Sep (-0.2% over the previous month); import price indexYoY, Sep (7.8% over the previous month); Export price indexMoM, Sep (expected -1.2%, -1.6% over the previous month); Export price indexYoY, Sep (10.8% over the previous month); Bloomberg October. Economic Survey of the United States; business inventoryAugust (0.9% expected, 0.6% over previous reading); Consumer Confidence at the University of Michiganintroductory October (expect 58.8, 58.6 over the previous month)

earnings calendar

Monday: There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Tuesday: AZZ (AZZ), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)

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Wednesday: PepsiCo (PEP), Duck Creek Technologies (DCT)

Thursday: Black stone (BLK), Delta Airlines (DA), gradual (PGR), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), commercial metal (CMC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Friday: JP Morgan (JPM), City Group (c), Morgan Stanley (Ms), PNC (PNC), US Bancorp (USB), United Health (United nations), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter Tweet embed

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Clashes over FTX’s bankruptcy become global

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Disputes are raging around the world over who controls the company’s insolvent funds and crypto assets

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Bitcoin plunges 70% on Standard Chartered’s list of potential disruptions for 2023

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(Bloomberg) — Speculators clinging to the view that the cryptocurrency’s path is over are mostly at risk of a rude awakening in 2023, according to Standard Chartered Bank.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Another “surprising” scenario that markets could be “underpriced,” Eric Robertson, the bank’s global head of research, wrote in a note Sunday, another bitcoin drop of about 70% to $5,000 next year.

Robertson said demand could shift from bitcoin as a digital version of gold to real gold, leading to a 30% rally in the yellow metal.

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Robertson added that this likely outcome includes a reversal in higher interest rates as economies struggle, more bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets.

He stressed that he was not making predictions but instead summarizing scenarios that are materially outside the current market consensus.

Arguably, the question of what lies ahead for digital assets wasn’t difficult to answer after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sister trading house Alameda Research. The spreading tremors from the explosion threaten to bring down more crypto companies and token prices.

For some, much of the bad news may already be reflected in the more than 60% drop in bitcoin and a scale of the top 100 tokens over the past year.

“Our bottom line is that most of the forced selling is over, but investors may not be compensated for the market risk incurred in the near term,” Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, wrote in a note on Friday.

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Farrell pointed to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Digital Currency Group, the parent company of beleaguered crypto brokerage Genesis. Genesis creditors are looking at options to try to prevent the brokerage from falling into bankruptcy.

gold forecast

Robertson of Standard Chartered said that a surprising market scenario of gold rallying as cryptocurrencies decline could see the precious metal measure at $2,250 an ounce.

“Gold will benefit from cryptocurrency woes going forward, with the sudden downturn in confidence in the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” said Nicholas Vrabel, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery in Sydney.

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The cryptocurrency sector continues to shrink. For example, digital asset exchange Bybit plans to cut its workforce by 30%, the latest in a series of layoffs to hit the industry.

There could be more pain ahead: About 94% of respondents to Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey believe more blowouts will follow FTX’s bankruptcy as years of easy credit give way to a tougher business and market environment.

Bitcoin at the moment is fairly stable. The largest virtual currency was up 1.8% on Monday and was trading at a three-week high of $17,340 as of 2:35pm in Tokyo. It also gained codes like Ether, Solana, and Polkadot.

For crypto market prices: CRYP; For the most important cryptocurrency news: TOP CRYPTO.

–Assisted by Sing Yee Ong.

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Dollar falls as easing of restrictions in China boosts risk sentiment By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: One hundred US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken in Seoul on February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-won/File Photo

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar fell broadly on Monday after a rough week, weakening below 7 yuan as sentiment towards riskier non-dollar assets improved after signs of China easing some coronavirus-related restrictions.

More Chinese cities, including financial hub Shanghai and Urumqi in the far west, announced easing coronavirus restrictions over the weekend as China tries to soften its stance on COVID-19 restrictions in the wake of unprecedented protests against the policy.

“They may seem like small steps, but nonetheless they are a strong sign that China is taking measured steps toward reopening,” said Christopher Wong, currency analyst at OCBC.

China is preparing to announce soon easing nationwide testing requirements, as well as allowing positive cases and close contacts to isolate at home under certain conditions, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week.

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The dollar fell below 7.0 yuan in foreign trade, while it jumped about 1.4% to 6.9507 on Monday morning, the strongest level since Sept. 13.

The euro, which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and the euro, fell 0.18% to 104.28, its lowest since June 28.

The index fell 1.4% last week, capping a 5% decline for November, its worst month since 2010, on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve is ready to scale back interest rate hikes after four consecutive 75-bps. Points increase.

Investors’ focus will be on US consumer price inflation data due on December 13, a day before the Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting.

The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates by an additional 50 basis points at the meeting. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing the Fed’s benchmark rate to a peak of 4.92% in May.

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OCBC’s Wong said some degree of caution is still warranted because the Fed is not done tightening. “They’re still tightening up, it’s just that it’s going to be in baby steps.”

Traders appeared to be looking beyond the stronger-than-expected US jobs report for November on Friday after some Federal Reserve speakers calmed market concerns.

“We’ve blown past the US payrolls with a temporary jolt to risk markets,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noting that the data supports the “soft landing” argument and is unlikely to change the Fed’s course.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was down 0.04% against the dollar at 134.37 per dollar, after rising 3.5% last week, off October’s low of 151.94.

The euro rose 0.38% to $1.0578, after rising 1.3% last week. It had earlier touched its highest level in more than five months at $1.05835.

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The pound rose to $1.23450, the highest level since June 17, and was last trading at $1.2339, up 0.42%.

The Australian dollar rose 0.75% to $0.684, while it rose 0.31% to $0.643.

================================================== == ======

The currency bid prices are at 0520 GMT

Description RIC Last US Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

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previous change

session

EUR/USD 1.0580 $1.0541 +0.37% -6.94% +1.0584 +1.0512

USD/JPY 134.3800 134.2950 +0.00% +16.75% +134.7600 +134.2800

EUR/JPY 142.18 141.53 +0.46% +9.10% +142.2200 +141.5700

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USD/CHF 0.9349 0.9368 -0.19% +2.51% +0.9393 +0.9344

GBP/USD 1.2337 1.2293 +0.37% -8.76% +1.2343 +1.2251

USD/CAD 1.3401 1.3474 -0.54% +5.99% +1.3473 +1.3386

AUD/USD 0.6841 0.6794 +0.63% -5.94% +0.6851 +0.6764

NZ 0.6429 0.6413 +0.27% -6.06% +0.6442 +0.6367

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Tokyo forex market information from Bank of Japan

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