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Tough times for global policy makers

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This article is an on-site version of the Disrupt Times newsletter. Register here To send the newsletter directly to your inbox three times a week

Good evening

The subject of a Nobel Prize has never been more appropriate than today’s award for the former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and their colleagues for their work on the role of banks in the economy and financial crises.

This announcement comes as part of the annual Fall Meetings of The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund Launching in Washington, DC at a perilous moment for the global economy. The war in Ukraine, a serious energy crisis, soaring interest rates, soaring food prices, and a fractured relationship between the world’s two largest economies come more than two years after the damage wrought by the pandemic.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has already warned that the global economy will do so I feel like he was in a slump Next year of “real income deflation and price hikes”, indicating that the fund will cut its forecast again this week.

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Business and consumer confidence is overwhelmed. According to new data from twice a year Brookings-FT Tracking IndexPessimism is rising in the face of rising prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

Historical strength index line graph of a group of confidence indicators showing that confidence indicators have fallen sharply over the past year

Meanwhile, policymakers around the world continue to seek solutions to the energy crisis.

while Europe searches for Alternatives to Russian gas (As we reported on Europe Express for Premium subscribers), relations between the world’s major oil producers are straining after the OPEC+ group decided to cut production to raise prices (here’s: explainer If you are late for the story). The United States accused the organization of allying with Russia, but analysts warned that President Joe Biden did Few meaningful options To minimize the effect of historical cuts.

The transition to clean energy will be another big problem in Washington this week, with the United States and Germany issuing calls for the World Bank to be more responsive needs of developing countries. (You can read more as you move into renewables in our new special report: Climate Change Management.) Climate change and rising costs of inputs like fertilizers are reshaping global agriculture, like ours great read details.

Meanwhile, the United States is in a row with China over technology exports. Shares in major Chinese chip makers Lost $8.6 billion In today’s market value after Washington announced on Friday New controls To limit attempts by Chinese companies to develop new technologies with military applications. This move will slow their progress in the field of AI by doing so very difficult For them to get advanced or manufactured chips.

The Washington meetings could also lead to some potentially uncomfortable moments for British unity.

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Counsellor was Kwasi Kwarting Criticized by the International Monetary Fund for his latest ‘mini’ budget and ‘untargeted’ tax cut package, while facing Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey intense scrutiny The Bank of England prepares to end its emergency support for government bonds on Friday.

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Need to know: Economics

The Bank of England announced measures to stave off haste Sale of assets by pension funds While Chancellor Kwase Kwarting presented his long-awaited plan debt relief plan Until October 31 in an attempt to reassure the nervous markets. The latest warning about the economic downturn came from retailers in West End in Londonalthough they might be getting some solace from lately VAT cut off For shoppers abroad.

The latest in UK and Europe

a German The expert committee concluded a Energy aid package worth 91 billion euros That included paying gas bills for all homes in December and subsidizing residential and industrial gas prices for more than a year.

FranceEurope’s largest energy exporter has reassured the UK that it can sustain it electricity flows during the winter.

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The UN-backed agreement Ukraine To export millions of tons of wheat under pressure from a Cargo Ships Backlog Waiting for sailing to and from the country’s ports.

Demographic changes, Brexit, and an increase in pro-unity support from Sinn Fein on both sides of the border have increased support for uniting irelandreports Judd Webber.

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Recently Employment data Indicates the employment frenzy in advanced economies I started to calm down Employers worry about rising costs and a bleak economic outlook.

Dimming economic prospects and the end The era of low interest rates It also puts pressure on the world real estate markets. Lower sales numbers and extended affordability could lead to painful price corrections in the UK, US and elsewhere. UK buyers and sellers have been hit hard by the market fallout budget “mini”.

Global Business Columnist Rana Forouhar He reads runes about neoliberalism and tiered economics, a theory that has become “political kryptonite.” While Washington has not developed a completely clear industrial policy, there are clear indications of it Economics is finished let it workargue.

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The Financial Times editorial board has called for a new model for Chinese growth Where consumers are empowered Spend more and save less.

Need to know: Business

Wall Street Banks And other major US companies have significantly lowered their forecasts Third Quarter Earnings With mounting concerns about rising prices and a deteriorating economy.

Bar chart of annualized change in EPS (%) showing that major US companies are expected to post a slowdown in earnings growth

Cathay Pacificone of the biggest business casualties due to Hong Kong’s strict lockdown rules, said normal levels of aviation will not return at least two years.

space and defense It has been a rare bright spot for UK manufacturing in recent years but is under increasing pressure Falls prey to foreign acquisitions As well as facing high inflation and interest rates and the weakness of the pound.

world of work

The Hospitality in the United Kingdom The sector, which has lost 121,000 workers in the European Union in the past two years, is growing increasingly Turning to older workers To fill the gaps in the labor market. Employees age 50 and older represent a quarter of the workforce of 2.2 million people.

Regardless of Brexit, one of the main drivers of Labor shortage in the UK The workforce is shrinking. some Half a million people They have dropped out of the workforce since the pandemic due to chronic illness and mental health issues, according to a Jon Byrne Murdoch report.

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Chart showing that chronic pain, mental health problems and potentially prolonged Covid are causing an additional half a million Britons to lose the workforce

fast changing Labor market It means that skills are more important than ever. a Skills-first approachSophia Smith, our newsletter editor, wrote rather than focus on previous education and experience.

Covid cases and vaccinations

Total global cases: 614.1 million

Total doses given: 12.8 billion

Get the latest photo around the world through our website vaccine tracker

Some good news…

Glasgow Arts Center has launched SWG3 pioneering energy system, harnessing body temperature of dancers which can be stored and used to heat or cool the place.

Dancers at the SWG3 Arts Center in Glasgow
Glasgow Hall of the Arts SWG3 launches its BodyHeat system with group performance of Slosh line dance © Photo: Michael Hunter

work on it Discover the big ideas shaping workplaces today with a weekly newsletter from business and careers editor Isabel Berwick. Participation over here

Climate chart: an explanation – Identify the most important weather data for the week. Participation over here

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Economic

FirstFT: The FTC is flexing its muscles on the Microsoft-Activision deal

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good morning. This article is an in situ version of our website FirstFT the news. Subscribe to our site AsiaAnd the Europe/Africa or The Americas A release to send straight to your inbox every weekday morning

The US Federal Trade Commission will file a lawsuit to block Microsoft $75 billion acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard Because of concerns that the deal could hurt competitors to the Xbox consoles and cloud gaming business.

Deal, which was announced in JanuaryIt will be Microsoft’s largest acquisition ever and will make it the third largest game company by revenue, after China’s Tencent and Japan’s Sony.

But the Federal Trade Commission said yesterday that the deal would harm competition in the gaming sector, highlighting the fact that Activision is one of the few video game developers that produces and publishes the best video games for many devices such as PCs, consoles and mobile phones.

Microsoft moved to head off a regulatory backlash this week By signing a contract for 10 years To bring Call of dutythe blockbuster that brought in $30 billion in lifetime sales for Activision, has moved to Nintendo platforms instead of turning it into an Xbox exclusive.

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The measure is one of the biggest tests yet for Lena Khan, the chair of the Federal Trade Commission appointed by President Joe Biden, who has He vowed to crack down on Big Tech’s market power.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella hoped the deal would give the US software company a head start in the race to build the next version of the Internet and saw no reason for competition concerns when He spoke to the Financial Times in February.

“Even after this acquisition, we’ll be in third place with kind of a lower teen share[of the video games market]. . . “We’re going to be a bit of a player in a place that’s going to be very fragmented,” he said.

1. Pro-left appointed as Brazilian Finance Minister Luis Inacio Lula da Silva Fernando is expected to name HaddadThree well-informed sources reported that a loyalist from the left-wing Labor Party as Finance Minister today. The decision is likely to disappoint financial markets and reignite investor fears that the Lula administration, which takes office on January 1, will pursue a looser fiscal policy.

2. The US House of Representatives passes a defense bill worth $858 billion in financing weapons for Taiwan passed by the US House of Representatives A comprehensive defense spending bill of $858 billion That provides $10 billion in funding to provide arms to Taiwan as the country comes under increasing pressure from China. It is the first time that the US government has funded weapons for Taiwan.

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3. The United Kingdom, Japan and Italy agree to jointly build advanced combat aircraft The three countries will joint construction One of the most advanced combat aircraft in the world by 2035, to expand its defense capabilities to counter the growing threats from China and Russia. They will share development costs estimated at tens of billions of dollars.

A mock-up of the Tempest jet at the 2018 Farnborough Airshow
The UK and Italy’s Tempest fighter program will be integrated with Japan’s FX project © Peter Nicholls / Reuters

4. Airlines are feeling the pressure as charter groups raise rents Airlines return to profitability, but one cloud looms: Sharp increases in rental costs. More than half of the world’s commercial aircraft are owned or operated by leasing companies, and their fees are rising, which is another consequence of rising interest rates.

5. The Faustian agreement between Joe Biden and Russia to secure the release of Brittney Greener Brittney Griner’s release was greeted with joy from the basketball star’s family and supporters. But the exchange with Viktor Bout, a notorious arms dealer, drew criticism and raised questions about how America’s adversaries would deal with them. It may benefit from the arrest of its own citizens in the future.

How good is it to keep up with the news this week? Take our test.

Coming days

Economic data The US Department of Labor will update the Producer Price Index. The producer price index is expected to have risen 0.2 percent in November from the previous month, but the annual pace of wholesale inflation is expected to have eased to 7.2 percent, from 8 percent in October. The University of Michigan preliminary reading on consumer confidence is expected to have risen to 56.9 in December from 56.8 last month.

UK to launch financial services reforms Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would Unveil changeswhich include raising the ceiling on bankers’ bonuses and removing the requirement to separate risky investment banks from retail operations, in a speech in Edinburgh later in the day.

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Putin in Kyrgyzstan Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to participate in the Eurasian Economic Union summit. The leaders are expected to discuss the establishment of a joint gas market and the establishment of an intergovernmental council in the field of energy. According to the Russian news agency TASS.

world Cup The quarter-final matches kick off in Qatar today, with Croatia playing Brazil in the first match, followed by the Netherlands and Argentina. Tomorrow, the surprising Moroccan team will meet Portugal at the start of the match, and England will meet France at a later time.

  • Read more: Simon Cooper, who grew up in the Netherlands, explains how the Dutch do it They abandon tradition under their coach Louis van Gaal in a bid to win the World Cup.

What else do we read?

Light needs to illuminate the black hole on dollar swaps An ordinary person might assume the dollar swap market It is a transparent angle of financing, given that the US currency underpins much of the global industry and these contracts are used by most of the major corporations and investment groups. Not so, writes Gillian Tate, as a recent report from the Bank for International Settlements shows.

Has inflation peaked? Central banks in the developed world have cautiously raised interest rates to curb demand and crush inflation this year, but, says the Financial Times editorial board, Now is not the time to hold back or cut back borrowing costs.

‘Hell. Hell: The War of Attrition on Bakhmut With Russia desperate for victory, wave after wave of infantry began Thrown in the city of Bakhmut on the front line In the Donetsk province, only to be cut down by the Ukrainian defenders. “They are just meat for Putin, and Bakhmut is a meat grinder,” said Kostyantyn, an exhausted Ukrainian machine gunner.

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Maps show that there was relatively little movement on the front line around Bakhmut

Why the price of oil has fallen despite new restrictions on Russian supply This week saw a pivotal moment in global geopolitics, as the European embargo and G7 cap on Russian crude oil prices came into effect. Within hours, supply disruptions set in as the piling up oil tankers queued up in the Bosphorus Strait. All of this would normally lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. However, yesterday they reached a new low of 2022. What is going on? Our energy editors explain.

It’s time to hunt down the dragons of the Asia Corporation I learned the hard way during years of managing Japanese equity portfolios, writes the Financial Times’ new investment columnist Stuart Kirk, the country’s corporate bosses were obsessed with market share, quality, innovation, culture and hard work. But did they sleep at night dreaming of my equity returns, Stewart asks, no they did not. That’s changing, he says, but local conditions are still very important.

the television

There are explosive royal TV shows out there, writes lead writer Henry Mance. But so far the new Netflix series Harry and Megan Not them. He argues that the Sussexes are both an ambitious couple and a cautionary tale about ambition.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex
Harry & Meghan is produced by the couple’s company Archewell © Courtesy Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex

Thank you for reading and remember that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

Climate chart: an explanation – Learn about the most important weather data for the week. Participation over here

Long story short – The biggest and best-read stories in one smart email. Participation over here


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What is the ChatGPT policy?

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Rob Lonnie She claims to be a “left-liberal”. David Rosado I applied the political compass test He concluded that ChatGPT is a mixture of left and liberal leanings, eg: “anti-death penalty, pro-abortion, skeptical of free markets, corporations exploiting developing countries, more taxes for the rich, government subsidies, pro-benefits for those who refuse to work, Pro-immigration, sexual liberation, morality without religion, etc.”

Produce this image from the test results:

Rosado also ran several other political tests with largely similar results. However, I would like to stress a few different points. Most of all, I see ChatGPT as “pro-Western” in its perspective, while giving different visions of what this means. I also see ChatGPT as a “discord minimization”, for business reasons but also simply to want to get on with substantive work with a minimum of external fuss. I wouldn’t have built it myself So differently, and note that the bias may lie in the training data rather than any biases of the creators.

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Marc Andreessen has received a number of tweets suggesting that AI engines will host the “mother of battles” over content, censorship, bias, etc. – outside of the current battles on social media.

I agree.

I saw someone ask ChatGPT if Israel is an apartheid state (I can’t reproduce the answer because chat is now broken for me – unfortunately! But try for yourself.). Basically, ChatGPT answered no, that only South Africa was an apartheid country. Not many people will be unhappy with this answer, including many supporters of Israel (Israel’s moral defense, on the one hand, was not weighty enough for many tastes). Many Palestinians will object, for obvious reasons. And what about all those Rhodesians who suffered under their apartheid regime? Are they simply to be forgotten?

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When it comes to politics, the AI ​​engine simply cannot win, or even win a draw. However, there is no simple way to keep them out of politics either. By the way, if you get frustrated with ChatGPT wrapping your question, rephrase it in terms of asking them to write a dialogue or speech on a topic, in someone else’s voice or style. Often it will go further in this way.

The world has yet to realize how powerful ChatGPT is, and thus Open AI can still live in a kind of relative peace. I’m sorry to say that it won’t last long.

the post What is the ChatGPT policy? Debuted marginal revolution.

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China will launch SSE 50 stock index options trading from December 19th

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Chinese national flag flies outside the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) building on Financial Street in Beijing, China on July 9, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s securities regulator on Friday approved the launch of China Financial Futures Exchange (LON:: 50) stock index options from December 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Friday.

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