More tech tantrums. The spread of covid in china. Above all, there are no central banks to bail out if things go wrong. With $18 trillion wiped out, global equities must overcome all of these hurdles and more if they are to escape a second year in a row in the red.
With a drop of more than 20% in 2022, the MSCI All-Country World Index is on track for its worst performance since the 2008 crisis, as massive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve more than doubled 10-year Treasury yields – the average Support global capital costs.
Bulls looking forward into 2023 may find solace in the fact that two consecutive years of decline are rare for major stock markets — the S&P 500 has fallen for two consecutive years on only four occasions since 1928. But the scary thing is that when they do happen, The drops in the second year tend to be deeper than they were in the first.
Here are some of the factors that could determine how 2023 shapes up for global stock markets:
central banks
Optimists may point out that a peak rate hike is on the horizon, possibly in March, as money markets expect the Fed to shift into rate-cutting mode by the end of 2023. News survey Found 71% of large global investors expect stocks to rise in 2023.
Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer of Amundi, Europe’s largest financial manager, recommends putting investors on the defensive at the start of the new year. He expects a bumpy ride in 2023, but believes that “doing the Fed in the early part of the year could lead to interesting entry points.”
But a year later Shocked The best and brightest of the investment community, many are bracing for more reversals.
One risk is that inflation remains too high for policymakers’ comfort and rate cuts do not materialize. A Bloomberg Economics model shows a 100% chance of a recession by August, yet it seems unlikely that central banks will rush to ease policy when faced with cracks in the economy, a strategy they have used repeatedly in the past decade.
Policymakers, at least in the United States and Europe, now seem resigned to weak economic growth in 2023. Deutsche Bank Christian Nolting, the private bank’s chief global investment officer, told clients in a note. He warned that recessions may be short, but they “will not be pain-free”.
Major technical problems
The big unknown is how the big tech companies fare, after a 35% drop in Nasdaq 100 in 2022. Companies like Meta platforms Inc. And the Tesla The company gave up nearly two-thirds of its value, while the losses are at Amazon.com and Netflix A company that has approached or exceeded 50%.
High-value technology stocks suffer the most when interest rates rise. But other trends that have supported the advancement of technology in recent years may also be reversing — an economic recession threatens to hurt iPhone demand while a slump in online advertising could take a toll on Meta and the alphabet company
In an annual Bloomberg survey, only about half of respondents said they would buy the sector — selectively.
“Some tech names will come back because they’ve done a great job convincing customers to use them, like Amazon, but others will probably never reach that peak as people move on,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bouquet Capital Partners. for Bloomberg Television.
Earnings slump
Previously flexible corporate earnings were widespread is expected In 2023, as pressure on margins increases and consumer demand weakens.
“The final chapter of this bear market is all about the trajectory of earnings estimates, which are way too high,” said Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, a Wall Street bear who predicts earnings of $180 per share in 2023 for the S&P 500, versus analyst expectations. $231.
He said the next earnings recession could rival 2008, and markets have yet to price it in.
delicate china
Beijing’s decision in early December to dismantle tough Covid restrictions appeared to be a turning point for the MSCI China Index, whose 24% drop was a major contributor to global stock market losses in 2022.
But a month-long recovery in mainland and Hong Kong stocks faded as a surge in Covid-19 infections threatened the economic recovery. Many countries are now requiring Covid testing for travelers from China, which is a negative for global travel, leisure and luxury stocks.
Boom options
Technical factors increasingly drive daily stock moves, with S&P 500 seeing below-average turnover in 2022, but explosive growth In very short term options trading.
Professional traders and algorithmic institutions have piled into such options, which until recently were controlled by small investors. That could lead to bumpier markets, causing sudden swings to flare up like the big intraday swing after the hot US inflation reading in October.
Finally, with the S&P 500 failing to break out of its 2022 downtrend, the short-term speculation continues to tilt to the downside. But should the market turn around, it will add fuel to the recovery.