© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: US dollar and euro banknotes are shown in this illustration taken on July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Rovic/Illustration/File photo/File photo
Written by Jimmy MacGyver
ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Hedge funds are betting in 2023 that U.S. interest rates are close to peaking, that the Federal Reserve will keep them higher for longer, and that the dollar will weaken slightly.
Judging by the economic data, financial market volatility and talk from US policymakers in the first week of the year, this seems like a reasonable macro strategy – and a reasonable consensus – to use.
At least for now.
CFTC data shows that speculators closed out 2022 with one of the smallest short positions in the three-month SOFR futures rate of the year, a light short dollar position, and large short positions across the US Treasury curve.
A short position is essentially a bet that the price of an asset will go down, and a long position is a bet that it will go up. In bonds and interest rates, implied yields and rates go down when prices go up, and go up when prices go down.
CFTC speculators increased their net short positions in the three-month Guaranteed Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) futures contract to 175,218 contracts in the week ended Jan. 3, but that’s still one of the smallest net short positions in a turbulent year.
Chart: CFTC 3-Month Position “SOFR” https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjklgxapr/CFTC2.png
Funds’ US interest rate expectations peaked in August and September last year when their net short positions exceeded 1 million contracts.
A quick reversal since then shows that they are more neutral on the rate and inflation outlook this year and believe that the Fed is nearing the end of the trolling cycle, or that it has cashed in on a very profitable trade. or both.
“The bottom line is that the Fed and the consensus are right to expect a decline in inflation over time to 2023,” estimates Torsten Slok, partner at Apollo Global Management (NYSE:) in New York.
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Hedge funds are on track for their worst returns in 14 years in 2022, but macro strategies have fared much better. The industry data provider HFR macro index is up 8.15% in the first 11 months of the year, and the currency index is up 12.58%.
HFR is expected to release its December and full-year 2022 revenue numbers this week, with industry peer Preqin to follow later in the month.
The CFTC’s speculators’ slim bet on short-term US interest rates contrasts with the large bets they still hold on two-year and 10-year Treasuries, despite the end of the Fed’s hike cycle and economic slowdown alike.
Chart: CFTC’s US Treasury Futures Locator https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/myvmogmwdvr/CFTC3.jpg
In a 10-year period, the funds finished 2022 with their third largest net short position for the year, at 383,602 contracts. Funds have been short in these futures contracts since October 2021, and the selling bias has strengthened recently — and the pullbacks were soon followed by weeks of larger bearish bets.
Since hitting a 15-year high of 4.30% in October, the 10-year yield has fallen; It closed at 3.57% on Friday. The inversion of the yield curve around that time also deepened, meaning that the 10-year yield fell further to below the two-year mark.
But the funds held their large net short positions. If this is the year to buy bonds because they are cheap — direct and stock-based — money may have to turn around.
Funds trimmed their net short exposure to two-year Treasury futures contracts in the week ended Jan. 3 — but only slightly — to 521,508 contracts, still one of the largest ever.
Funds have been short two-year futures all year, and any notion of a positioning for the Fed’s pivot vanished in October when they raised their bearish bets to record highs.
Chart: CFTC Dollar Position vs. https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjvqjeqgbpx/CFTC1.png
In foreign exchange, funds cut their net short dollar positions by about a third, closing the year with a $6.8 billion bet that the dollar will weaken against its G10 peers.
This is driven by a large EUR long position. Funds betting on the euro rally against the dollar – near the biggest in two years – is worth $17 billion and beats the $4.5 billion and $1.5 billion long dollar bets against the yen and pound sterling respectively.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a Reuters columnist.)
(Writing by Jimmy MacGyver; Editing by Bradley Perrett)