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Saudi Arabia is in talks to deposit five billion dollars in the Central Bank of Turkey

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Saudi Arabia is discussing a deal to inject $5 billion into Turkey’s central bank, a move that would bolster Ankara’s foreign exchange reserves and mark another sign of the two regional rivals’ rapprochement four years after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

A Saudi finance ministry official said Riyadh and Ankara were in talks about the potential deposit, without providing further details. A Turkish Finance Ministry official confirmed that the two sides were discussing a deposit. “The talks are not over, but they are in their final stages,” he said.

The agreement with Saudi Arabia would put an end to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s months-long efforts to mend relations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and expand trade relations with the kingdom as the Turkish leader seeks new sources of foreign exchange ahead of his upcoming re-election bid. general.

turkey It spent at least $17.9 billion defending the lira between March and September, according to Goldman Sachs. The country’s attempts to prop up its currency come as the central bank cut interest rates this year despite sharp inflation.

The new money from Riyadh could buy Ankara more financial breathing space at a time when it is also facing acute pressure from soaring energy prices.

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Ankara has already struck multi-billion dollar currency swap deals in recent years with countries including Qatar, China, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea.

Funds were transferred this year by Russia’s state nuclear agency to Turkey to build an atomic power plant, providing a boost of $5 billion to $10 billion for Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves, according to analyst estimates.

The net foreign assets of Turkey, the main proxy for its foreign exchange reserves, came in at $11.5 billion on Monday, down from a recent high of $14.1 billion on November 16, according to the Financial Times calculations. The figures were lured by $47.6 billion in short-term borrowed money from Turkish banks and $23.6 billion from other central banks, according to Goldman estimates based on data from November 16.

The agreement with Saudi Arabia would also signal a warming of relations after the 2018 killing of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and critic of Prince Mohammed, in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, sparking a bitter dispute between the two countries. Erdogan accused the “highest levels” of the Saudi government of the murder, and Turkish officials leaked gruesome details of the killing to the press in what was seen as an attempt to embarrass the crown prince.

But a protracted currency crisis has forced Erdogan to mend relations with Riyadh and other powers in the Middle East, where he has sparred with Israel, Egypt and the UAE over Turkey’s assertive foreign policy.

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An Istanbul court in April stopped the trial in absentia of 26 Saudis in connection with Khashoggi’s murder. Erdogan then traveled to Riyadh and later hosted Prince Mohammed in Ankara in what the Turkish president described as a “new era” in relations with the Gulf state. In turn, Saudi Arabia has begun easing the unofficial ban on Turkish exports that it had imposed in the wake of Khashoggi’s murder.

The two men last met on Sunday when they attended the opening match of the World Cup in Qatar, where Erdogan also shook hands for the first time with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi since he ousted his Islamist predecessor Mohamed Morsi, whom Erdogan embraced. As an ideological ally, in 2013.

Erdogan’s overtures to his former foes are aimed at attracting foreign investment after Western investors fled Turkey’s capital markets due to his unorthodox economic policy of keeping interest rates low despite 85 percent inflation. Just six months before the election, his party’s popularity plummeted to historic lows due to the cost of living crisis.


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Cyril Ramaphosa is ready to start the fight in a bid to hold on to the presidency

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Cyril Ramaphosa is preparing to challenge a debtor’s report to South Africa’s parliament accusing the president of abuse of office, in the clearest sign yet that he aims to fight a scandal that has brought him to the brink of resignation.

“Our legal team is working on the review papers so they can be submitted as quickly as possible,” the president’s spokesperson told the Financial Times on Saturday.

Ramaphosa is under pressure to step down after a panel headed by a former chief justice told lawmakers this week he may have been guilty of serious wrongdoing in a case 2020 Theft At least $580,000 stashed inside a couch on his Phala Phala game farm.

The team’s findings hit hard RamaphosaReputation as a reformer who came to power in 2018 on a pledge to restore clean government after years of plundering the country under his predecessor, Jacob Zuma.

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senior members African National Congress It is scheduled to meet on Sunday to discuss the report and Ramaphosa’s political future – just weeks before the party holds a leadership vote. Ramaphosa was widely tipped to win another five-year term.

The parliamentary report says it appears that more unbanked money was stored in Ramaphosa’s Vala-Fala game reserve than the $580,000 that was stolen, and that he may have failed to report the theft through proper police channels.

Ramaphosa’s supporters have been urging him not to resign and open a court challenge over what they see as serious flaws in the report. They complain that it overstepped its jurisdiction and relied on limited evidence.

South African lawmakers are due to vote on Tuesday on whether to accept the report and begin a full impeachment procedure. Legal experts said a court challenge to the report by the president would freeze or complicate the process.

Ramaphosa has always denied any wrongdoing in connection with the theft of the Fala Fala, saying that he reported the crime to the Presidential Protection Unit as soon as he became aware of it, and that the money was legitimate proceeds from the sale of the buffaloes to a Sudanese businessman.

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The committee said these explanations were insufficient and there was significant doubt as to the legality of the source of the funds, leaving the president with a case to answer.

A court battle over the Falla Falla report could overshadow Ramaphosa’s presidency even if he is reappointed to the leadership of the ANC. Africa’s most industrialized economy is suffering from blackouts and stagnant growth.

Arthur Fraser, former head of South Africa’s spy agency under Zuma and commissioner of prisons under Ramaphosa, exposed the theft earlier this year, accusing the president of covering it up.

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These 49 housing markets will see house prices drop by more than 15% – this interactive map shows Moody’s updated forecasts for 322 markets

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a Historic mortgage rate shock-with The average fixed rate 30-year mortgage It jumped from 3% to 6% this year — in the wake of the pandemic housing boom 41.3% increase in US home prices in just over two years It has simply pushed many potential buyers to breaking point. Other borrowers, who must meet the lenders’ strict debt-to-income ratios, have lost mortgage eligibility altogether. This historical pressure, which comes from prices and rates, is what’s going on luck He calls “compressed affordability.”

Already, squeezing affordability has seen US home prices, as measured Case-Shiller National Home Price Indexfalling for the first time on a seasonally adjusted basis since 2012. In all, US home prices fell 2.2% between June 2022 and September 2022. This correlation The second largest home price correction in the post-World War II era.

Whenever a post like luck He says “US house prices,” talking about a national total. Whatever comes next in the US housing market will certainly vary by market, price point, and home type.

to get an idea of ​​what may be come then, luck I reached out again to Moody’s Analytics to get updated home price forecasts (see map below) for 322 of the largest housing markets in the country. (over here Their previous subway predictions).

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That’s what the data says.


In May, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said luck That anti-inflationary Fed would do We see the US housing market slide into a “housing correction”. At that time, expect home prices to drop nationally and to fall between 5% to 10% in “overvalued” markets.

Zandi was, of course, right housing correction. This correction was actually quite sharp In October, Moody’s Analytics lowered its national home price forecast again. From peak to trough, Zandi expects US home prices to fall by 10%. If a recession does indeed emerge, that forecast shifts to a 20% decline from peak to trough.

“No change in our prospects [national] Home prices or the mortgage rate. I feel more confident that the economy will be able to avoid a full recession next year, which corresponds to a 10% decline in national home prices from peak to trough.” luck Friday. Through the spring of 2023, mortgage rates are expected to hover around 6.5%.

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While Zandi expects a decline in home prices of about 10% nationally, he expects that to change at the regional level. In markets like Morristown, Tenn. and Muskegon, Mich. Moody’s Analytics expects home prices to decline by 24.1% and 23.3%, respectively. The company expects markets like New York and Chicago to decline 6.3% and 4.2% from peak to trough.


Going forward, Moody’s Analytics expects “Massively overrated” The housing markets will see the sharpest declines. (You can find Moody’s Market Overvaluation Study by Market over here).

Look no further than markets like Boise and Flagstaff, Ariz. Just weeks into the pandemic, these markets are flooded with buyer interest from white-collar professionals who work in high-cost cities like Seattle and San Francisco. While remote work has been a game-changer for uprooted white-collar workers, it has not fundamentally changed local incomes. So as the boom rages on, Boise and Flagstaff become “overrated” by 76.9% and 65.6%.

Fast-forward to 2022, and slowing levels of immigration mean that these booming cities will have to rely more on local income. Zandi says it will be hard to do. Because of this, Moody’s forecast model projects that home prices in markets like Boise and Flagstaff will fall by more than 20% from peak to trough.

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Speaking at a Brookings Institution event on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell He said the rise in housing prices during The pandemic housing boom qualifies as a “housing bubble.”

out of the epidemic, [mortgage] Prices were so low, people wanted to buy homes, they wanted to get out of the cities and buy homes in the suburbs because of COVID. So you really had a housing bubble, and home prices went up [at] “Very unsustainable levels and overheating and that sort of thing. So now the housing market is going to go through the other side of that and hopefully come in a better place between supply and demand,” Powell said.

The The pandemic housing boom has already seen housing fundamentals spiral out of control. According to Moody’s Analytics, the US median housing market was “overvalued” by 1% in the second quarter of 2019. During the second quarter of 2022, the US median housing market was “overvalued” by about 25%.

Moving forward, Zandi doesn’t expect a 2008-style financial crisis or foreclosure crisis, but he does expect housing fundamentals to ease toward the mean. Part of this moderation will come through rising incomes, and part of it will come through falling home prices.

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“Before [home] Prices have begun to fall, and we have been overestimated [nationally] by about 25%. Now that means [home] Prices will normalize. Affordability will be restored. The [housing] “The market won’t be overvalued after this process is over,” Zandi says. “It’s all about affordability. First-time buyers are cut off from the market. They simply can’t afford the mortgage payments. Barter buyers won’t sell and buy because it doesn’t have any economic meaning.


Of course, the home price correction has already arrived.

Just over half of the 400 largest housing markets in the country They witnessed local housing valuesas measured by Zillowfalling from its peak in 2022. The average decline is -2%.

The ongoing correction has hit two different types of markets the hardest: the high-cost West Coast markets, and the “bubbly” boomtowns.

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John Burns told real estate consultancy that even before the correction was in full swing luck High-cost West Coast markets were more prone to declining values. The reason is that they are simply more sensitive to price. Markets like Seattle (down 6.3%) and Portland, Oregon (down 5.1%) were hit with a double whammy: Not only are their high-end real estate markets more sensitive to rates, but so are their technology sectors. There is also the fact that homebuilders and iBuyers –Their price is likely to drop during the correctionCreate a higher concentration of inventory outside the West.

The other set of markets hit hard by the correction Champagne markets. These markets, which include places like Austin (down 10.2%) and Boise (down 7.1%), saw their home values ​​separate from the underlying fundamentals (i.e. local income) during the boom. And now, they are seeing sharper declines.

Want to stay up to date housing correction? Follow me Twitter in @tweet.

The new Impact Report weekly newsletter will examine how ESG news and trends are shaping the roles and responsibilities of today’s CEOs – and how they can better overcome these challenges. Subscribe here.



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“I pay a paycheck.” I make $350,000 a year, but have $88,000 in student loans, $170,000 in auto loans and a mortgage I’m paying $4,500 a month. Do I need professional help?

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I am the first homeowner of my generation and the first to earn this amount annually and I don’t want to ruin this home. How, specifically, can a financial advisor help me?

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A question: By the end of 2022, I will have made $350,000 before taxes as the sole breadwinner and head of household. This is a great starting point and I’m very aware of how lucky we are to be in this position, but I’m always looking forward to how we can improve. I currently have $88k remaining in student loans (originally close to $150k) and very little credit card debt (less than $2k with over $25k available). I have two auto loans totaling $170,000 for two electric vehicles at 5% interest.

I was recently offered a $200,000 HELOC at 9%, which will help me lower some of my monthly payments and make some small home repairs and improvements, but I want to make the right moves. It has also introduced me to a few long term real estate investment opportunities that are properties for rent out of state and are currently yielding a 10-12% ROI. But my concern is that after taxes, 401(k) contributions, bills, savings, and a mortgage ($4,500), on paper, I have a paycheck to pay. I’d like to use HELOC to consolidate debt while also participating in some of these investment opportunities. I am the first homeowner of my generation and the first to earn this amount annually and I don’t want to ruin this home. How, specifically, can a financial advisor help me? (Also looking for a new financial advisor? This tool can help match you with a counselor who may meet your needs.)

Answer: You have a few questions that need to be addressed here, so let’s go one by one. The first is HELOC. Yes, HELOCs can be a good way to consolidate debt, but the price you’re being offered isn’t fair, as HELOC rates average just over 6%. “I would ask if 9% is the best rate you can get, because it seems a bit high,” says Chris Chen, certified financial planner with Insight Financial Strategists. What’s more, “I’d like you to consider the potential impact of our federal policy and inflation on interest rates, since HELOCs usually have variable interest rates and we’re in an environment with rates going up. You might start at 9% and end up much higher.” Chen says.

Furthermore, student loans, auto loans, and mortgages are likely to be less than 9%, so consolidation via HELOC is not likely to save you money. “You may want to start in a different place, like the snowball method, where you focus on one loan, usually the smallest loan, and direct all your resources to paying that loan off while keeping payments on others,” Chen says. This method can end your student loans and maybe one of your auto loans, to begin with.

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Do you have a problem with your financial advisor or have questions about hiring a new one? E-mail picks@marketwatch.com.

For those real estate investments, what do you really know about those returns? “In terms of real estate investments, I’m assuming the 10% to 12% ROI you’re talking about is the income you’ll get from the investment. If that’s the case, it’s very high and often when you get a much higher return than normal, there’s something else that makes investing Less desirable, Chen says.Also looking for a new financial advisor? This tool can help match you with a counselor who may meet your needs.)

Certified Financial Planner Kaleb Paddock says you may actually want to work with a financial coach before working with a financial advisor. While a financial advisor helps develop investment strategies and long-term financial plans, a money coach provides a more educational experience and focuses on the short-term goals of money management. “A money coach will help you pay off all of your debt, maximize cash flow, and help you create systems and processes to proactively direct your money,” Paddock says.

While having a high income is great, there’s a concept called Parkinson’s Law, which essentially states that your spending will always go up to meet your income no matter how high that income goes, Paddock explains. “Working with a financial coach will help you defeat Parkinson’s Law, eliminate your debt, and then empower you to maximize your investments and plan your life with a financial advisor,” Paddock says.

A financial advisor can help, too, and Danielle Harrison, a certified financial planner with Harrison Financial Planning, says she looks for someone who does comprehensive financial planning and can help you create a more comprehensive plan for your finances. “They can help you create short- and long-term goals, and then help you by giving you guidance on financial decisions and opportunities,” says Harrison.

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A financial advisor will also help you take a long-term approach to your money and help you create a spending plan where you don’t feel like you’re living paycheck to pay a $350,000 paycheck. “Everyone has blind spots when it comes to their finances, so finding a competent financial partner can be invaluable,” says Harrison. (Also looking for a new financial advisor? This tool can help match you with a counselor who may meet your needs.)

Do you have a problem with your financial advisor or have questions about hiring a new one? E-mail picks@marketwatch.com.

*Edit questions for brevity and clarity.

The advice, recommendations, or ratings in this article are those of MarketWatch Picks, and have not been reviewed or endorsed by our business partners.

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