After one of the worst weeks of industrial unrest in modern British history – with nurses, railway workers and postal staff among those in icy picket lines – Rishi Sunak’s government has been hawkish, warning that big wage increases are “unsustainable” and will lead to inflation.

But as Jack Straw, an adviser to Labor governments during the strife-torn 1970s and then a Cabinet minister, said: “These differences will be ironed out. Or not?

The prime minister told his cabinet on Tuesday that the government had been “fair and reasonable” in its handling of the wage disputes. “There is a feeling that we have to get over this,” said one minister.

But there is also a recognition in the Sunak government that dealing with the wage demands of British nurses – one of the most respected professions in the country – is a particularly complex problem.

Tory unity has already begun to fray on the fringes, with Sir Jake Perry, the former party chairman, and Dan Boulter, a Conservative MP and NHS hospital doctor, saying Sunak will have to increase supply for nurses.

“You’ll never win an argument with the nursing profession,” said Straw. “It’s impossible.” The problem for ministers is that complying with demands for a pay increase for more than a million NHS workers in England would cost billions of pounds.

In understanding Sunak’s approach to the wave of strikes sweeping through Britain, his allies said it was important to understand that ministers treat every dispute as different. But the overarching goal is to maintain wages amid a huge budget deficit and inflation running at more than 10 percent.

Strikes in the NHS are a particular problem for the government, but Sunak is more sanguine about other labor disputes, particularly over railways, where ministers intervened this month to stop employers offering a 10 per cent pay deal over two years.

“The rail unions are starting to act,” said one senior Conservative, noting that only 63 percent of RMT rail union members voted to reject an offer of a 9 percent payout over two years from Network Rail, the infrastructure operator. Another union, TSSA, accepted Network Rail’s offer.

The sight this week of RMT leader Mick Lynch berating a BBC journalist for “repeating far-right things” when she asked him about waning union support for strikes delighted Sunak’s allies. Someone said, “Lynch is upset.”

Ministers believe that public support for strikes “tends to wane the longer they last” and that the government could win the argument at a time when many workers accept offers of lower wages – certainly less than the 19 per cent cut demanded by the Royal College of Nursing, the union behind The industrial strike of nurses.

For example, senior governors believe that teachers who are It has been voted on By unions for strikes in 2023, it is unlikely to garner massive public support, given that children’s education has been disrupted by the Covid pandemic.

Sunak has promised new anti-strike legislation in the new year, limiting damage to key public services caused by the strike, and will be encouraged by many Conservative MPs and right-wing newspapers.

The Prime Minister also believes that Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor Party, could be introduced as a servant of the union – and someone who would make unaffordable salary offers, should he win the next election.

“What is weak is that it is not strong enough to stand up to unions,” Sunak said on Wednesday. We are actually protecting the public. They are protecting their payers.” Starmer described the nurses’ strike as a “badge of shame” for the government.

A strike by nurses and ambulance drivers is a serious problem for a government that has accepted an independent wage review body’s proposal for a £1,400 salary increase for more than a million NHS staff in England, backdated to April. This represents an increase of just under 4 percent in the average base wage for nurses.

So far, the Cabinet and most Tory MPs have stuck firm, arguing that the government could not afford a higher wage increase, that it would be inflationary, and that if NHS staff were paid more it would open the door to similar demands from other public sectors. Workers.

But Steve Breen, the Tory chair of the House of Commons health committee, called for flexibility, saying the “elegant” way out would be to ask the wage review body to reconsider its recommendation. This idea has so far been rejected by Number 10.

There is tension in the government, with figures including Sir John Geoff, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England, wondering whether larger pay increases for public sector workers will cause inflation to rise significantly.

Lord Nick MacPherson, former permanent secretary at the Treasury, said: “I think the government should be careful about its rhetoric here. Public sector workers don’t create inflation.”

Speaking on BBC Radio week in WestminsterHe added, “It is the private sector that is really driving the labor market. We also have to realize that public sector salaries have been contracting for a very long time.”

Some government officials fear that other Tory MPs will join Perry and Poulter and urge the government to give more money to NHS staff, especially if their constituents start complaining about the scrapped operations. “You know what Tory MPs are like,” said one.

Steve Barclay, the health secretary, has so far refused to discuss this year’s NHS wage award with the RCN, saying its demand for a 19 per cent increase was “unsustainable”.

But he, like the unions, is looking for a way to end the strikes. Barkley’s allies said he had tried to “start a conversation” about the next NHS wages deal which comes into effect in April.

But, in the meantime, Sunak will have to calculate the extent of the potential political damage if strikes continue deep into 2023. Watch.