© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: People walk past a screen showing a Hang Seng stock ticker outside the Hong Kong stock exchanges, in Hong Kong, China July 19, 2022. REUTERS/Lam Yik // File Photo
Written by Jimmy MacGyver
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie MacGyver.
Asian markets are set to open the week with spring in stride Monday, bolstered by a rally on Wall Street on Friday, mounting hopes for a soft landing in the US, and optimism surrounding China’s reopening after the ‘zero Covid’ policy came to pass. End of this week.
Investors took Friday’s ‘Goldilocks’ US employment report as a sign that the Fed may win its battle against inflation without doing too much damage to the economy – US and global stocks, assets and risky bonds rose, which is likely. To set the tone in Asia on Monday.
MSCI Global Equities – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbvggorymvq/MSCIGlobal.png
The relatively bland US backdrop — economic activity and inflation slowing enough to allow the Fed to end its rate hike cycle soon, and perhaps even reverse it later this year — is enough to spur investors’ appetite for risk.
Throw in increasingly positive signals from China, and the bulls could lead the charge on Monday.
Travelers (NYSE: ) began flocking to mainland China by air, land and sea on Sunday, as Beijing opened borders that have been virtually closed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beijing’s sudden shift has led to huge waves of infections, but investors are hopeful that reopening will eventually pay off economically. China is in talks with Pfizer (NYSE:) is on a vaccine, and economists at several major banks are revising their GDP growth forecasts for the second half of this year.
– Out and Wild – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrlroneve/CNY.jpg
The increasing upward trend is reflected in China’s exchange rate. The yuan is its strongest since mid-August, as it moved further away from the 7.00 level for the dollar.
Hong Kong tech stocks have been on a tear lately – up a staggering 65% from an October low – but could open on a more cautious note Monday after news that Ant Group founder Jack Ma will relinquish control of the fintech giant. .
Analysts are divided on whether this clears the way for the company to revive its IPO plans, or will lead to further delays.
There is little economic data out of Asia on Monday, but the flow picks up later in the week. Among the key events to watch: new loans, consumer and producer price inflation, and trade data from China. Australian and Indian inflation and current account and Tokyo inflation figures from Japan.
The South Korean central bank is also expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, to 3.50%. Policymakers are divided on where the final interest rate should be – three out of six in November saw 3.50%, and two saw probability at 3.75%.
Three key developments could provide more direction to the markets on Monday:
Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic speaks
— Japanese Prime Minister Kishida meets French President Macron
Unemployment in the Eurozone (November)