More than two years after the UK and the European Union finalized their post-Brexit trade deal, the two sides remain locked in a bitter row over the implementation of Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements.
but with Rishi SunakThe prime minister, now determined to restore relations with Europe and the 25th anniversary of the historic Good Friday Agreement that secured peace looms large in April, political pressure is mounting on all sides to reconcile their differences.
After several months of pre-technical negotiations, London and Brussels are preparing for a final diplomatic encounter to secure a deal that could restart Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive and help normalize EU-UK relations.
However, despite the warmth of the music of diplomatic temperament, securing a permanent settlement will require Sunak to thread the needle through the knot of intense political and technical challenges that have defeated all his post.Britain’s exit from the European Union Loans. The Financial Times is looking at what to do.
Border repair in the Irish Sea
To avoid a return of a north-south border in Ireland, Boris Johnson agreed in the Northern Ireland Protocol that the region will continue to follow EU rules on goods post-Brexit. This necessitated a trading frontier in the Irish Sea.
Unionists say this cuts them off from the rest of the UK and creates a bureaucracy that prevents small businesses in Great Britain from trading with Northern Ireland.
Fixing this would require “de-dramatising” the border by reducing the number of physical checks, but the EU says this can only be done if the UK provides sufficient data on all goods flowing from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. A computer system is tested to do this. But creating datasets requires companies in Britain to fill out forms, which the UK is trying to avoid.
Resolving this dilemma to the satisfaction of the DUP – the largest pro-UK party in Northern Ireland, which has paralyzed domestic politics since May to push for sweeping changes to protocol – would be the first step towards a deal.
Negotiators must then resolve the question of which regulations – those of the UK or the EU – goods traded in Northern Ireland must comply with, and try to find mechanisms to allow the region’s institutions to better consult on which future EU regulations they must accept.
Finally, the “judgement” question will come. Because Northern Ireland must follow EU rules on goods, value-added tax and subsidy control, the agreement is being monitored by the European Court of Justice – conservative Eurosceptics say it is an affront to UK sovereignty. This will be a very difficult circuit, but if a deal is close, some EU diplomats and officials say a way could be found to “soften” the role of the ECJ, even if it cannot be removed entirely.
Sale bargain in Westminster
The pro-Brexit European Research Group helped put Liz Truss in Downing Street and her humiliating failure as Prime Minister was a serious blow to the cause of Eurosceptics.
Yet Sunak, who has a working majority in the 69-year-old House of Commons, knows he cannot afford to alienate dozens of MPs on his party’s pro-Brexit wing by “selling out” to Brussels.
To run the ERG, Sunak appointed Brexiter Chris Heaton-Harris as Northern Ireland secretary, and brought back Oliver Lewis, who helped negotiate Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, as adviser.
David Jones, vice chair of the External Review Group, said the “fundamental” issue in talks with the EU was ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice from UK territory. The challenge facing Sunak is to find a legal solution that satisfies both parties.
“Our position is that we’ve left the European Union now and it’s about sovereignty,” Jones said. “The question is whether the rulings of the European Court of Justice have binding force in the United Kingdom.”
Jones claims the EU would be willing to compromise and says it would be perfectly acceptable for British courts to take into account the rulings of the European Court of Justice. “The issue is whether we are committed to these decisions,” he said.
Persuading unionists in Northern Ireland to make concessions
There is no easy backing down for the DUP, which has prevented the Stormont power-sharing executive and legislative assembly from functioning since the May election in protest of protocol.
And she feels her hard-line tactic is working: in fact, London and Brussels now agree that no deal is possible without the support of the Unionist community, and polls show her support has increased in Northern Ireland.
The Democratic Unionist Party, runner-up to the pro-unity Sinn Féin party last May, says London has a simple choice: Protocol or Stormont. She outlined seven tests to measure any future deal – including no frontiers on the Irish Sea, no checks on goods from Britain residing in Northern Ireland, and having a say in the enactment of laws affecting them.
While not all of these are seen as politically achievable in London, the DUP insists that the institutions it delegated will remain in limbo until protocol is changed to its liking or Westminster passes a bill (currently pending in the House of Lords) giving ministers Powers to cancel the main parts of it.
The Easter 1998 anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the three-decade-old conflict known as the Troubles, means London is particularly keen to seal the deal. But there is a growing sense that the DUP will continue to hold out, which increases the likelihood of it happening yet another Long hiatus for devolution in Northern Ireland.
Work with Europe to strike a deal
EU officials and diplomats are willing to compromise and believe that the UK is serious in its desire to find a solution to the impasse. “The work on the technical level is going better than it was, so we hope that the preference for a negotiated solution is real,” said one.
Maroš Šefčovič, the Brexit commissioner, has offered to minimize checks between Britain and Northern Ireland, but as trade outside EU borders becomes increasingly difficult — the US is becoming more protectionist and the Russian market is out of reach for many industries — the bloc desires to protect the single market.
It is clear that many EU capitals cannot allow an unprotected border between the single market and a third country. And a failure to impose any controls on the Irish Sea would leave Brussels open to legal challenge from companies that believe competitors in Northern Ireland have an unfair advantage.
While there is little evidence so far of dangerous food or defective products slipping through the Irish Sea, there have been some reports of counterfeit electrical goods clearly destined for the EU single market being shipped to Northern Ireland.
Diplomats also say there can be no deal until London scraps the Northern Ireland Protocol Act, which would unilaterally scrap much of the protocol. One said, “The UK should get the loaded gun off the table.”
However, they are weighing the prospect of a less-than-flattering deal against instability in Northern Ireland, where the union has invested billions in the peace process.