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German producer prices are falling for the first time in more than two years

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Prices charged by German industrial groups at the factory gate fell on a monthly basis in October for the first time in more than two years, raising hopes that consumer inflation in Europe’s largest economy may be nearing a peak.

The monthly decline of 4.2 percent in industrial producer prices in Germany, announce By the Federal Statistics Agency on Monday, it was due to the sharp decline in wholesale energy costs for businesses that reflect relieve fears About possible gas rationing this winter.

“While this is largely due to significantly lower energy prices, today’s numbers are hopeful that consumer price inflation will soon peak,” said Ralf Solven, chief economist at Germany’s Commerzbank.

“However, this does not mean that the problem of inflation is over,” he added, predicting that German consumer price growth will peak by next spring “at the latest” and remain well above the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target throughout next year.

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Germany has been hit before Double-digit annual heights In consumer prices for the first time since the early 1950s, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic led to higher energy and food prices.

However, the latter Low wholesale prices for gas and electricity in Europe Medium price pressures in the broader eurozone economy may start to abate soon, even if this is expected to take several months to feed into the consumer.

It will take a few more months for the “passage of higher gas prices to consumers” to be completed, said Carsten Brzeski, head of macro research at ING, adding that he expects German inflation to peak in January.

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates by two percentage points since July and is expected to raise them again at its meeting next month. Indicators of easing inflationary pressures may convince policy makers of this Slow down the rate of price rise.

However, German companies still plan to pass more cost pressures on to consumers, according to a survey of 6,500 businesses in October published by the Ifo Institute in Munich on Monday.

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Ifo That companies have conveyed 34 percent of high purchase prices to customers in the past few months, but they expect that percentage to increase to 50 percent by April 2023.

“This is likely to lead to more inflationary pressures on consumer prices,” said Manuel Minkoff, a researcher at Ifo.

Compared to the same month a year earlier, industrial producer prices in Germany rose 34.5 percent in October, a much more marked slowdown than economists had expected after increases of 45.8 percent in the previous two months.

Energy producer prices rose 85.6 percent in the year to October, but fell 10.4 percent from the previous month, mainly due to lower wholesale prices for electricity and natural gas.

Producer prices for other commodities, excluding energy, rose at a lower annual rate of 13.7 percent in October than in September while rising slightly on a monthly basis.

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German companies also face rising wage demands from workers to offset the rising cost of living, but so far trade unions are settling for wage increases well below inflation, which hit 11.6 percent in October.

IG Metall, Germany’s largest union, demanded wage increases of 8 percent for 3.9 million electricity and metals workers, but asked last week agreed Increases of 5.2 percent next year and 3.3 percent in 2024, plus two annual payments for a total of 1,500 euros. On Monday, however, the Verdi union submitted a request for a 15 percent wage increase for Deutsche Post’s 160,000 workers.

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Economic

What is the ChatGPT policy?

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Rob Lonnie She claims to be a “left-liberal”. David Rosado I applied the political compass test He concluded that ChatGPT is a mixture of left and liberal leanings, eg: “anti-death penalty, pro-abortion, skeptical of free markets, corporations exploiting developing countries, more taxes for the rich, government subsidies, pro-benefits for those who refuse to work, Pro-immigration, sexual liberation, morality without religion, etc.”

Produce this image from the test results:

Rosado also ran several other political tests with largely similar results. However, I would like to stress a few different points. Most of all, I see ChatGPT as “pro-Western” in its perspective, while giving different visions of what this means. I also see ChatGPT as a “discord minimization”, for business reasons but also simply to want to get on with substantive work with a minimum of external fuss. I wouldn’t have built it myself So differently, and note that the bias may lie in the training data rather than any biases of the creators.

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Marc Andreessen has received a number of tweets suggesting that AI engines will host the “mother of battles” over content, censorship, bias, etc. – outside of the current battles on social media.

I agree.

I saw someone ask ChatGPT if Israel is an apartheid state (I can’t reproduce the answer because chat is now broken for me – unfortunately! But try for yourself.). Basically, ChatGPT answered no, that only South Africa was an apartheid country. Not many people will be unhappy with this answer, including many supporters of Israel (Israel’s moral defense, on the one hand, was not weighty enough for many tastes). Many Palestinians will object, for obvious reasons. And what about all those Rhodesians who suffered under their apartheid regime? Are they simply to be forgotten?

When it comes to politics, the AI ​​engine simply cannot win, or even win a draw. However, there is no simple way to keep them out of politics either. By the way, if you get frustrated with ChatGPT wrapping your question, rephrase it in terms of asking them to write a dialogue or speech on a topic, in someone else’s voice or style. Often it will go further in this way.

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The world has yet to realize how powerful ChatGPT is, and thus Open AI can still live in a kind of relative peace. I’m sorry to say that it won’t last long.

the post What is the ChatGPT policy? Debuted marginal revolution.



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China will launch SSE 50 stock index options trading from December 19th

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Chinese national flag flies outside the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) building on Financial Street in Beijing, China on July 9, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s securities regulator on Friday approved the launch of China Financial Futures Exchange (LON:: 50) stock index options from December 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement on Friday.

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Xi Jinping Hails “New Era” in China-Saudi Arabia Relations

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Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “new era” in Beijing’s relationship with the Gulf region as he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Thursday and the two sides signed partnership agreements.

In an opinion article published by Saudi media, something He wrote, “The visit will carry forward our traditional friendship, and open a new era in China’s relations with the Arab world, with the Arab Gulf states and Saudi Arabia.”

Before being received in Riyadh by the kingdom’s daily ruler, Xi wrote this Kingdom Saudi Arabia China “respects each other’s sovereignty and development path.” [and] Respect each other’s history and cultural traditions.”

His plane was ceremoniously escorted by Saudi planes before it landed on Wednesday evening for his first visit since 2016. He was received by Prince Mohammed and a guard of honor before he met the prince and his aides on Thursday.

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The three-day visit, which will see the Chinese leader attend an Arab and Gulf summit, comes at a low point in US-Saudi relations after the kingdom led OPEC+ in oil production cuts, prompting warnings from Washington that it might reassess its relations with it. Riyadh.

Saudi and Chinese media reported that the two sides signed a strategic partnership agreement that would see the leaders of the two countries meet every two years. They have also drafted 34 investment deals in sectors including technology and energy.

The deals included a memorandum of understanding between Huawei and the Saudi Minister of Communications to establish a mobile internet at a speed of 10 gigabits per second and a cloud computing facility in the Kingdom, as well as construction deals for 300,000 housing units. Huawei’s business dealings in the West have come under scrutiny over security concerns.

Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Enovate Motors has also agreed a memorandum of understanding with a Saudi holding company to set up a car factory in the country that will produce 100,000 vehicles annually.

The United States has opposed Huawei’s expansion in the region and recently warned that some sectors of engagement with China could affect cooperation between the United States and Arab countries.

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Washington said it would monitor the visit, which comes months after US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia and told Arab leaders at a summit that the United States would not leave a “vacuum” in the region for China, Russia and Iran to fill.

“We recognize the influence that China is trying to cultivate around the world,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, about Xi’s visit. “The Middle East is definitely one of those regions where they want to deepen their level of influence.”

Kirby said that while America did not ask countries to choose between Washington and Beijing, US policies were “more conducive to preserving prosperity and security for countries around the world than those that China exhibits or promotes.”

Despite Biden’s pledge, Gulf officials said the United States, Saudi Arabia’s main security partner and arms supplier, has grown distant as it focuses on other regions. Saudi officials have refrained from playing the role of the two superpowers, saying they want to diversify their foreign relations.

China is already the kingdom’s largest trading partner, while Saudi Arabia is its largest supplier of crude oil. Analysts say that Beijing does not seek to replace the United States in the region, and in no way will it be able to do so, but rather aims to expand its trade and influence.

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Additional reporting by Maiqi Ding

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