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Flood and landslide threats prompt evacuations along California coast By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Drone view of a downed tree during a winter storm with high winds in Sacramento, California, US January 8, 2023. REUTERS/Fred Graves

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Written by Erica Urich and Steve Gorman

MONTECITO, Calif. (Reuters) – Storms in the Pacific Ocean were responsible for at least 12 deaths in California on Monday, forcing the evacuation of about 25,000 people, including the entire town of Montecito and areas near the Santa Barbara coast. increased risk of floods and landslides.

The evacuation zone in Montecito was among 17 in California where authorities fear a series of heavy rains since late December will unleash deadly waterfalls of mud, rocks and other debris into hillsides stripped by past wildfires.

The mandatory evacuations came five years after mudslides caused by torrential rains recently pummeled the fire-ravaged cliffs and canyons around Montecito, a affluent coastal region 90 miles northwest of Los Angeles, causing widespread damage and killing more than 20 people. in January 2018.

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Sheriff’s deputies were cruising the flooded roads in high-purity SWAT Bearcat armored vehicles to rescue residents trapped by rising waters, Raquel Zec, a Santa Barbara County sheriff’s spokesman, told Reuters.

Among Montecito’s 9,000 residents, many of them luxury homes in the picturesque town, are celebrities such as media mogul Oprah Winfrey, and Britain’s Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan.

It was not immediately clear if they were among those forced to flee the area. It was known that Winfrey was in Hawaii during the New Year holidays.

Famed Montecito resident comedian Ellen DeGeneres posted a selfie video to Twitter of herself standing in the rain next to a flooded torrent flowing through what she described as a usually dry creek bed near her property.

Mother Nature is not happy

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The artist, who was wearing a hooded jacket, tweeted that she was advised to “take shelter where he is” rather than evacuate because her home was on higher ground.

“We need to be kinder to Mother Nature, because Mother Nature is not happy with us,” she said in the video. “Let’s all do our part. Stay safe, everyone. Yeah.”

The Montecito Fire Department said all 15 of Montecito’s counties were ordered to evacuate immediately, along with parts of the city of Santa Barbara and nearby areas in Carpinteria and Summerland where “burn scars” posed a mudslide hazard.

A social media video posted by TMZ.com showed a man paddling a kayak in the middle of a flooded street in Santa Barbara. The Los Angeles Times reported that many roads were closed due to flooding and debris flows, including portions of US Highway 101 in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

Along the Central California coast, about 14,000 people were ordered evacuated early Monday from four Santa Cruz County communities inundated by flash flooding, extreme tides and runoff from local mountains, said Brian Ferguson, a spokesman for the state’s Office of Emergency Services.

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Nearly 4,000 other people in the town of Wilton remained under evacuation orders due to flood threats from breached levees along the Kusumnis River south of Sacramento, the state capital. Ferguson said another 42,000 residents of nearly a dozen counties were under evacuation warnings.

The heavy rains, along with heavy snow in the mountain regions, were the product of another “atmospheric river” of intense moisture funneled into California from the equatorial Pacific, buoyed by sprawling low-pressure systems churning offshore.

At least 12 deaths have been attributed to several consecutive storms hitting California since Dec. 26, including a young child who was killed when a redwood tree blew over his family’s trailer home last week.

Experts say the frequency and intensity of such storms, which are punctuated by severe dry spells, are symptoms of climate change, posing greater challenges for managing California’s precious water supply while reducing the risk of floods, mudslides and wildfires.

The six storms shortly after Christmas were accompanied by waves that battered coastal communities, as well as gale-force winds that uprooted thousands of trees weakened by a prolonged drought.

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The National Weather Service (NWS) warned that the latest onslaught will affect most of California’s 39 million residents, with up to 5 inches of additional rain expected near the coast and more than a foot of snow on the Sierra Nevada mountains over the next day. some days.

High winds wreaked havoc on the state’s power grid, leaving tens of thousands of Californians without power. As many as 120,000 homes and businesses were without power Monday morning, according to Poweroutage.us data.

US President Joe Biden has approved an emergency declaration authorizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to coordinate disaster relief efforts and mobilize emergency resources in California.

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Economic

We need to pay more attention to skewed economic signals

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The writer is chair of Queen’s College, Cambridge and advisor to Allianz and Gramercy

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world, especially for advanced economies that have a consequential impact on the global economy and markets.

The effects have been seen in declining living standards, increasing inequality, increasing borrowing costs, stock and bond market losses, and occasional financial mishaps (fortunately small and so far contained).

In this new year, recession, both actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driving seat of the global economy and is likely to replace it. It’s a development that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wide range of possible outcomes — something that a growing number of bond investors seem to be aware of more than their equity counterparts.

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International Monetary Fund iYou will likely review soon Her economic growth forecasts again, predicting that “a third of the world will be hit by recession this year”. What is particularly notable to me about these worsening global prospects is not only that the world’s three major economic regions – China, the European Union and the United States – are slowing down together, but also that this is happening for different reasons.

In China, a chaotic exit from the wrong Covid-19 policy is undermining demand and causing more supply disruptions. Such headwinds to domestic and global economic well-being will continue as long as China fails to improve the coverage and effectiveness of its vaccination efforts. The strength and sustainability of the subsequent recovery will also require that the country more vigorously renew a growth model that can no longer rely on greater globalization.

The European Union continues to deal with energy supply disruptions as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Strengthening inventory management and reorientation of energy supplies is well advanced in many countries. However, it is not yet sufficient to lift immediate constraints on growth, let alone resolve long-term structural headwinds.

The United States has the least problematic view. The headwinds to growth are due to the Fed’s struggle to contain inflation after mischaracterizing rate increases as fleeting and then initially being too timid to adjust monetary policy.

The Fed’s shift to an aggressive front-load of interest rate hikes came too late to prevent the spread of inflation in the services sector and wages. As such, inflation is likely to remain stubborn at around 4 percent, be less sensitive to interest rate policies and expose the economy to greater risk for accidents from additional policy errors that undermine growth.

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The uncertainties facing each of these three economic areas suggest that analysts should be more careful in reassuring us that recessionary pressures will be “short and shallow”. They need to be open, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transient.

This is especially important because these diverse drivers of recessionary risk make financial fragility more threatening and policy shifts more difficult, including potentially Japan. Get out of interest rate control Policy. The range of possible outcomes is extraordinarily large.

On the one hand, a better policy response, including improving the supply response and protecting the most vulnerable populations, can counteract the global economic slowdown and, in the case of the United States, avert a recession.

On the other hand, additional policy errors and market turmoil can lead to self-reinforcing vicious cycles with rising inflation and rising interest rates, weakening credit and compressed earnings, and stressing market performance.

Judging by market prices, more bond investors are better understanding this, including by refusing to follow the Fed’s interest rate guidance this year. Instead of a sustainable path to higher rates for 2023, they believe recessionary pressures will lead to cuts later this year. If true, government bonds would provide the yield and potential for badly missed portfolio risk mitigation in 2022.

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However, parts of the stock market is still weakly bearish pricing. Reconciling these different scenarios is more important than investors. Without better alignment within markets and with policy signals, the positive economic and financial outcomes we all desire will be no less likely. They will also be challenged by the risk of more unpleasant outcomes at a time of less economic and human resilience.

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Economic

Macro hedge funds end 2022 higher, investors say, while many others take big losses By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Svea Herbst Baylis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some hedge funds betting on macroeconomic trends have boasted of double and even triple-digit gains for 2022, while other high-profile companies that have long been on technology stocks have suffered heavy losses in volatile markets, investors said.

Rokos Capital, run by Chris Rokos and one of a handful of so-called global macro companies, gained 51% last year. Fund investors this week, who asked not to be identified, said Brevan Howard Asset Management, the company where Rokos once worked, posted a gain of 20.14% and Caxton Associates returned 16.73%.

Haider Capital Management’s Haider Jupiter Fund rose 193%, an investor said.

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Data from hedge fund research showed that many macro managers have avoided crumbling stock markets that have been rocked by rapid interest rate increases and geopolitical turmoil, including the war in Ukraine, to rank among the best performers in the hedge fund industry. The company’s macro index rose 14.2% while the general index of hedge funds fell 4.25%, its first loss since 2018.

Equity hedge funds, where the bulk of the industry’s roughly $3.7 trillion in assets are invested, fared worse with a loss of 10.4%, according to HFR data. And while that beat the broader stock market’s loss of 19.4%, some high-profile funds posted even bigger losses.

Tiger Global Management lost 56% while Whale Rock Capital Management ended the year with a 43% loss and Maverick Capital lost 23%. Coatue Management ended 2022 with a loss of 19%.

But not all companies that bet on technology stocks suffered. John Thaler JAT Capital finished the year with a 3.7% gain after fees after a 33% increase in 2021 and a 46% gain in 2020.

Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE::), where founder Dan Och is fighting the company’s current CEO in court over his salary increase, posted a 13% drop.

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David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which bet that Elon Musk would be forced to buy Twitter, ended the year up 37% while Rick Sandler’s Eminence Capital rose 7%.

A number of so-called multi-manager companies where teams of portfolio managers bet on a variety of sectors also boast positive returns and have been able to deliver on their promise that hedge funds can deliver better returns in distressed markets.

Balyasny’s Atlas Fund (NYSE: Enhanced) gained 9.7%, while Point72 Asset Management gained 10%. Millennium Management gained 12% while Carlson Capital ended the year with a 7% gain.

Representatives for the companies either did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

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German automakers point to easing supply chain problems

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Sales at BMW and Mercedes-Benz jumped in the final months of 2022 as the German premium auto brands indicated supply chain problems plaguing the industry were abating.

Automakers around the world have experienced parts shortages since the pandemic, especially semiconductors, leaving many of them with large fleets of incomplete vehicles that can’t be delivered to customers.

BMW and Mercedes each said their full-year vehicle deliveries fell last year by 4.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively, due to Suppliers Bottlenecks as well as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

But supply pressures eased in the last quarter of the year, as BMW recorded a 10.6 percent jump in sales, with 651,798 vehicles delivered, and Mercedes fulfilling 540,800 orders, up 17 percent from the same period in 2022.

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BMW He said the main effects of supply chain bottlenecks and continued lockdowns were felt in the first six months of the year, adding that “sales were steadily picking up in the second half.”

Mercedes boss Ula Kallenius told the Financial Times last week that the list of problems in the auto supply chain was declining, but added that long waits for cars would continue into 2023.

“One chip is enough to be vital [ . . .] Missing, and then you can’t finish the car, even if you have everything else.

Both brands recorded strong sales growth electric car. Mercedes, which last week announced a plan to build 10,000 charging docks, said EV shipments grew 124 percent to 117,800 last year compared with its predecessor.

Similarly, BMW reported strong growth in electric vehicle sales, with deliveries of fully electric vehicles doubling last year to 215,755.

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Analysts at Bank of America said that sales of electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, reached a historic peak last November, with 1.1 million units sold. They attributed this largely to the upcoming phase-out of customer subsidies in Germany.

Participate in Mercedes BMW and BMW prices held steady Tuesday morning as investors priced in an image of an improving showing.

Rolls-Royce, a subsidiary of BMW, announced Monday that sales have hit a 119-year record, driven by strong demand in the United States, its largest market.

The luxury brand has been largely unaffected by the semiconductor pressure, mainly because it makes relatively few compounds and therefore needs fewer chips.

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