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FirstFT: The Chinese chipmaker has been added to the US blacklist

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good morning. This article is an in situ version of our website FirstFT the news. Subscribe to our site AsiaAnd the Europe/Africa or The Americas A release to send straight to your inbox every weekday morning

The Biden administration is set on chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies placed on a trade blacklist, In the latest US efforts to target Chinese technology companies that it believes threaten its security.

The US Department of Commerce will put YMTC and other Chinese companies on its “entity list” as early as this week, according to three people familiar with the plan.

US groups are barred from selling technology to companies on the list unless they have a hard-to-obtain export license. The move comes two months after the United States unveiled strict export controls that made it difficult for China to obtain and produce the latest semiconductors.

The Financial Times reported this year that YMTC appeared to have breached US export controls by supplying Nand memory chips to Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei for its smartphones. US lawmakers have been pressing the Biden administration for months to put the company on the entity list.

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Lawmakers have also warned Apple that it will face intense scrutiny if it goes ahead with a plan to buy YMTC chips.

1. China stops counting asymptomatic cases As the Covid crisis worsens in China, so will it Stop counting asymptomatic Covid-19 cases But accelerating vaccinations because the world’s most populous country is suffering from an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak.

Investors piled into wealth management products as safe-haven assets during China’s stock market slump exacerbated by Beijing’s anti-Covid policy © Kevin Frayer / Getty Images

2. Beijing withdraws its diplomats over the attack on the Manchester consulate China has Six British diplomats withdrewbefore their possible expulsion following an attack on a pro-democracy protester on the grounds of the Chinese Consulate in Manchester.

3. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a point The Federal Reserve has It raised its standard policy rate by half a percentage point He indicated his intention to continue putting pressure on the US economy next year, as central banks on both sides of the Atlantic enter a new phase in the battle against inflation. The pivot is likely to follow smaller price increases internationally.

4. Qatar wooed EU legislators ahead of the World Cup Qatar European legislators were offered World Cup ticketsand free trips to the Gulf state and other generous hospitality as she sought to persuade them to moderate their criticism of her treatment of workers ahead of the soccer tournament.

5. Goldman weighs the bonus cut in the investment bank Studying Goldman Sachs Reducing the total rewards to more than 3,000 investment bankers by at least 40 percent this year. The prospect of deep cuts fueled concerns that the bank could face high staff turnover in the new year, according to people familiar with the matter.

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China and US retail sales and industrial production figures November data is due out today. Retail sales in China are likely to show a hit from the recent Covid lockdowns.

Japanese trade balance data November numbers will be released this morning. Last month, numbers from October showed a A larger-than-expected trade deficit. (CNBC)

New Zealand GDP figures for the third quarter The new GDP figures are expected to show that The nation’s economy continued to grow In general until September 30, but economists Expect a recession in 2023. (NZ Herald, Reuters)

Bank of England interest rate meeting Most economists expect a 0.5 percentage point increase today to 3.5 percent as the Bank of England battles persistent inflationary pressures. UK inflation has fallen to 10.7 per cent In November.

What else do we read

The world could be a better place Martin Wolf veers into optimism He should read his own columnBut he argues that now is the time to learn to move faster to deal with all the challenges we face.

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Line plot of the proportion of the adult population that experienced stress in the past day, by education level (%) showing stress being high and rising

“Fraud in shorts and T-shirts” The wheels of American justice do not turn as fast as the cryptocurrency markets. But now they’ve caught Sam Bankman-Fried, the boy king of a shattered FTX empire who’s accused of one of the biggest financial frauds in US history. Don’t miss Joshua Chaffin The breakdown of the messy week of Bankman Fried.

Russia’s Economy in Wartime: Learning to Live Without Imports When the toughest sanctions against Russia were first imposed, some analysts predicted a rapid collapse of the economy, perhaps by as much as 30 percent. Instead, what has emerged is a steady deterioration in the country’s productive capacity, economists say push the country back decades.

A tale of cancer care Medical issues are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States. Unseen prices in the US healthcare market mean a high-profile, expensive game of roulette, which many stand to lose, Claire Bouchy writes, reflecting The cost of breast cancer treatment.

Short sellers are enjoying the end of the ‘fantasy’ stock market The short sellers had a lot to be grateful for in 2022 — a slump in stocks, an abrupt end to easy money, and a historic energy crisis. But what are the predictions for 2023? Lawrence Fletcher explains.

artistic renaissance

Artists return to the eternal source of inspiration which is the Renaissance, wrote Louis Wise. But as a new generation honors the styles, themes, and forms of the late fourteenth, fifteenth, and sixteenth centuries, they also modernize them, with twists— as you see.

Dab, 2022, by Chris Oh
Dab, 2022, by Chris Oh© Courtesy of the artist and Fortnight Institute, New York

Thank you for reading and remembering that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

Climate chart: an explanation – Learn about the most important weather data for the week. Participation over here

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Economic

We need to pay more attention to skewed economic signals

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The writer is chair of Queen’s College, Cambridge and advisor to Allianz and Gramercy

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world, especially for advanced economies that have a consequential impact on the global economy and markets.

The effects have been seen in declining living standards, increasing inequality, increasing borrowing costs, stock and bond market losses, and occasional financial mishaps (fortunately small and so far contained).

In this new year, recession, both actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driving seat of the global economy and is likely to replace it. It’s a development that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wide range of possible outcomes — something that a growing number of bond investors seem to be aware of more than their equity counterparts.

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International Monetary Fund iYou will likely review soon Her economic growth forecasts again, predicting that “a third of the world will be hit by recession this year”. What is particularly notable to me about these worsening global prospects is not only that the world’s three major economic regions – China, the European Union and the United States – are slowing down together, but also that this is happening for different reasons.

In China, a chaotic exit from the wrong Covid-19 policy is undermining demand and causing more supply disruptions. Such headwinds to domestic and global economic well-being will continue as long as China fails to improve the coverage and effectiveness of its vaccination efforts. The strength and sustainability of the subsequent recovery will also require that the country more vigorously renew a growth model that can no longer rely on greater globalization.

The European Union continues to deal with energy supply disruptions as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Strengthening inventory management and reorientation of energy supplies is well advanced in many countries. However, it is not yet sufficient to lift immediate constraints on growth, let alone resolve long-term structural headwinds.

The United States has the least problematic view. The headwinds to growth are due to the Fed’s struggle to contain inflation after mischaracterizing rate increases as fleeting and then initially being too timid to adjust monetary policy.

The Fed’s shift to an aggressive front-load of interest rate hikes came too late to prevent the spread of inflation in the services sector and wages. As such, inflation is likely to remain stubborn at around 4 percent, be less sensitive to interest rate policies and expose the economy to greater risk for accidents from additional policy errors that undermine growth.

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The uncertainties facing each of these three economic areas suggest that analysts should be more careful in reassuring us that recessionary pressures will be “short and shallow”. They need to be open, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transient.

This is especially important because these diverse drivers of recessionary risk make financial fragility more threatening and policy shifts more difficult, including potentially Japan. Get out of interest rate control Policy. The range of possible outcomes is extraordinarily large.

On the one hand, a better policy response, including improving the supply response and protecting the most vulnerable populations, can counteract the global economic slowdown and, in the case of the United States, avert a recession.

On the other hand, additional policy errors and market turmoil can lead to self-reinforcing vicious cycles with rising inflation and rising interest rates, weakening credit and compressed earnings, and stressing market performance.

Judging by market prices, more bond investors are better understanding this, including by refusing to follow the Fed’s interest rate guidance this year. Instead of a sustainable path to higher rates for 2023, they believe recessionary pressures will lead to cuts later this year. If true, government bonds would provide the yield and potential for badly missed portfolio risk mitigation in 2022.

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However, parts of the stock market is still weakly bearish pricing. Reconciling these different scenarios is more important than investors. Without better alignment within markets and with policy signals, the positive economic and financial outcomes we all desire will be no less likely. They will also be challenged by the risk of more unpleasant outcomes at a time of less economic and human resilience.

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Macro hedge funds end 2022 higher, investors say, while many others take big losses By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Svea Herbst Baylis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some hedge funds betting on macroeconomic trends have boasted of double and even triple-digit gains for 2022, while other high-profile companies that have long been on technology stocks have suffered heavy losses in volatile markets, investors said.

Rokos Capital, run by Chris Rokos and one of a handful of so-called global macro companies, gained 51% last year. Fund investors this week, who asked not to be identified, said Brevan Howard Asset Management, the company where Rokos once worked, posted a gain of 20.14% and Caxton Associates returned 16.73%.

Haider Capital Management’s Haider Jupiter Fund rose 193%, an investor said.

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Data from hedge fund research showed that many macro managers have avoided crumbling stock markets that have been rocked by rapid interest rate increases and geopolitical turmoil, including the war in Ukraine, to rank among the best performers in the hedge fund industry. The company’s macro index rose 14.2% while the general index of hedge funds fell 4.25%, its first loss since 2018.

Equity hedge funds, where the bulk of the industry’s roughly $3.7 trillion in assets are invested, fared worse with a loss of 10.4%, according to HFR data. And while that beat the broader stock market’s loss of 19.4%, some high-profile funds posted even bigger losses.

Tiger Global Management lost 56% while Whale Rock Capital Management ended the year with a 43% loss and Maverick Capital lost 23%. Coatue Management ended 2022 with a loss of 19%.

But not all companies that bet on technology stocks suffered. John Thaler JAT Capital finished the year with a 3.7% gain after fees after a 33% increase in 2021 and a 46% gain in 2020.

Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE::), where founder Dan Och is fighting the company’s current CEO in court over his salary increase, posted a 13% drop.

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David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which bet that Elon Musk would be forced to buy Twitter, ended the year up 37% while Rick Sandler’s Eminence Capital rose 7%.

A number of so-called multi-manager companies where teams of portfolio managers bet on a variety of sectors also boast positive returns and have been able to deliver on their promise that hedge funds can deliver better returns in distressed markets.

Balyasny’s Atlas Fund (NYSE: Enhanced) gained 9.7%, while Point72 Asset Management gained 10%. Millennium Management gained 12% while Carlson Capital ended the year with a 7% gain.

Representatives for the companies either did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

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German automakers point to easing supply chain problems

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Sales at BMW and Mercedes-Benz jumped in the final months of 2022 as the German premium auto brands indicated supply chain problems plaguing the industry were abating.

Automakers around the world have experienced parts shortages since the pandemic, especially semiconductors, leaving many of them with large fleets of incomplete vehicles that can’t be delivered to customers.

BMW and Mercedes each said their full-year vehicle deliveries fell last year by 4.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively, due to Suppliers Bottlenecks as well as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

But supply pressures eased in the last quarter of the year, as BMW recorded a 10.6 percent jump in sales, with 651,798 vehicles delivered, and Mercedes fulfilling 540,800 orders, up 17 percent from the same period in 2022.

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BMW He said the main effects of supply chain bottlenecks and continued lockdowns were felt in the first six months of the year, adding that “sales were steadily picking up in the second half.”

Mercedes boss Ula Kallenius told the Financial Times last week that the list of problems in the auto supply chain was declining, but added that long waits for cars would continue into 2023.

“One chip is enough to be vital [ . . .] Missing, and then you can’t finish the car, even if you have everything else.

Both brands recorded strong sales growth electric car. Mercedes, which last week announced a plan to build 10,000 charging docks, said EV shipments grew 124 percent to 117,800 last year compared with its predecessor.

Similarly, BMW reported strong growth in electric vehicle sales, with deliveries of fully electric vehicles doubling last year to 215,755.

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Analysts at Bank of America said that sales of electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, reached a historic peak last November, with 1.1 million units sold. They attributed this largely to the upcoming phase-out of customer subsidies in Germany.

Participate in Mercedes BMW and BMW prices held steady Tuesday morning as investors priced in an image of an improving showing.

Rolls-Royce, a subsidiary of BMW, announced Monday that sales have hit a 119-year record, driven by strong demand in the United States, its largest market.

The luxury brand has been largely unaffected by the semiconductor pressure, mainly because it makes relatively few compounds and therefore needs fewer chips.

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