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FirstFT: Congressional committee votes to impeach Trump

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good morning. A congressional committee investigating last year’s violent attack on the US Capitol voted in favor of recommending that the US Department of Justice pursue criminal charges against former President Donald Trump for his role in the failed insurrection.

During today’s final public hearing, the bipartisan nine-member committee Unanimously, Trump should be impeached For aiding in rebellion, obstructing official government action, conspiring to defraud the United States and knowingly making false statements to authorities.

The vote is the culmination of the committee’s effort to highlight Trump’s complicity with the mob that stormed the Capitol in order to prevent Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election from being certified.

“We have never had a president of the United States raise a violent attempt to derail a transfer of power. I think almost two years later, this is still a time for reflection and reckoning,” said Benny Thompson, the Democratic member of the Mississippi House of Representatives who chairs the committee.

He added, “There is one factor that I think is most important in preventing another January 6th: accountability.” “The evidence we have gathered points to further action . . . accountability that can only be found in the criminal justice system.

The congressional committee’s final actions and recommendations are likely to deepen the former president’s legal woes as he makes a new bid for the White House. The Department of Justice, where Special Counsel Jack Smith handled the federal investigations into the former president, will make the final decision on whether to indict him.

1. Twitter users vote to remove Musk as CEO Following the backlash against bans from promoting user accounts on competitors’ platforms, Elon Musk launched a Twitter poll asking if he should resign as CEO of Twitter. A total of 17.5 million votes were cast, or 57.5 percent He called on Musk to step down.

2. Epic Games is paying the FTC $520 million to solve the problem.FortniteClaims In two separate legal complaints, the US Federal Trade Commission alleged that Fortnite Developer Illegally collected data on children and manipulated millions of gamers into unintentional purchases. Payments represent the biggest gain yet by regulators who are tackling so-called “dark patterns” in apps.

A teenage girl plays the video game Fortnite on her Apple iPhone X
© CJ GUNTHER / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock

3. EU energy ministers reach an agreement on a ceiling for gas prices Despite fears that the intervention would fail to calm markets and could threaten Europe’s gas supplies, the EU reached an agreement to cap gas prices in the bloc when it hit €180 per MWh for three days. Hungary opposed the cap, as did the Netherlands and Austria, who abstained in the final vote. Germany too vocal against covereventually agreed on the condition of additional guarantees.

4. Bankman Fried appears in court in the Bahamas while the United States awaits his extradition Sam Bankman Freed has been fighting extradition to New York since his arrest in Nassau last week on US federal fraud and money laundering charges related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Former billionaire Presented in court today Amid expectations that he will end his opposition to extradition.

5. China is running low on blood supplies after the covid virus turned away donors Blood banks in China are grappling with supply shortages during the current wave of Covid-19 cases, Adding more tension to an already strained medical system. Health officials have advised doctors to postpone “unnecessary” surgeries. Meanwhile, China today confirmed two Covid-related deaths, the first officially reported in the country since December 3.

next day

UK nurses strike The number of members of the Royal College of Nursing reaches 100,000 Second one-day strike in a week above pay. MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee will hear evidence from NHS executives and union leaders about nurses’ strikes and ambulance delays.

Judgment in the World War II war crimes trial A verdict is expected today in the case against Irmgard Forchner, a 97-year-old German woman accused of war crimes during World War II.

Gain energy Today is the deadline set by a High Court judge for UK energy provider Octopus Energy to take over its collapsing rival Bulb.

economic indicators Canada releases retail sales data for October. China publishes its cash rate decision; The EU will have its own quick numbers on consumer confidence; Germany will release its November PPI inflation figures, and Japan will publish the Monetary Policy Committee’s rate-setting decision this afternoon.

corporate results BlackBerry releases Q3 results today, FedEx Q2 results, and Petrofac has a trading update today.

Monday’s edition reported that Nike’s results for the second quarter were released yesterday. Today Nike releases results for the second quarter of the year. We are sorry for the error.

What else do we read?

Is the World Cup still the greatest show on earth? Gideon Rachman has participated in all but one World Cup since 1994. His plans are usually met with excitement from friends, but when he said he was going to Qatar, many raised eyebrows. Rachman talks about the FIFA controversy, immigrant, LGBT rights in Qatar, and Morally questionable history tournament.

France and Morocco fans at Souq Waqif in Doha, Wednesday
France and Morocco fans in Doha’s Souq Waqif on Wednesday © MARTIN DIVISEK / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock

Nouriel Roubini: I hope not to disappoint you too much The famously somber economist who warned of a 70 per cent chance of a recession in the US in August 2006 has an even bleaker forecast for next year and beyond. But Roubini, who is nicknamed “Doctor Doom”, reveals that he is also optimistic about the technology in the world This interview is with Henri Mance.

How private markets became escapism The rage over private investing began in the early 2000s and private channels became a way for money managers to hide losses from clients. But now, with inflation likely to be more steady than before, we have entered an era of money tightness, writes Ruchir Sharma, and There is no place to hide.

The face of a man peaking out from behind his hands as a downward zigzag outline
© Matt Kenyon

At Christmas, airline crews are Santa’s helpers in the sky For those who work in aviation and cabin crew, Christmas It can be heart warming but also bittersweetBritish Airways pilot Mark Vanhonker explains.

Cultural Predictions for 2023

In the year’s final episode, the FT Weekend podcast talks through listeners’ and editors’ cultural predictions for 2023: from dog trends to speed dating, to Twitter and what’s a White Lotus. He says about our collective psyche.

Thank you for reading and remembering that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

Climate chart: an explanation – Learn about the most important weather data for the week. Participation here

Long story short – The biggest and best-read stories in one smart email. Participation here


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Economic

We need to pay more attention to skewed economic signals

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The writer is chair of Queen’s College, Cambridge and advisor to Allianz and Gramercy

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world, especially for advanced economies that have a consequential impact on the global economy and markets.

The effects have been seen in declining living standards, increasing inequality, increasing borrowing costs, stock and bond market losses, and occasional financial mishaps (fortunately small and so far contained).

In this new year, recession, both actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driving seat of the global economy and is likely to replace it. It’s a development that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wide range of possible outcomes — something that a growing number of bond investors seem to be aware of more than their equity counterparts.

International Monetary Fund iYou will likely review soon Her economic growth forecasts again, predicting that “a third of the world will be hit by recession this year”. What is particularly notable to me about these worsening global prospects is not only that the world’s three major economic regions – China, the European Union and the United States – are slowing down together, but also that this is happening for different reasons.

In China, a chaotic exit from the wrong Covid-19 policy is undermining demand and causing more supply disruptions. Such headwinds to domestic and global economic well-being will continue as long as China fails to improve the coverage and effectiveness of its vaccination efforts. The strength and sustainability of the subsequent recovery will also require that the country more vigorously renew a growth model that can no longer rely on greater globalization.

The European Union continues to deal with energy supply disruptions as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Strengthening inventory management and reorientation of energy supplies is well advanced in many countries. However, it is not yet sufficient to lift immediate constraints on growth, let alone resolve long-term structural headwinds.

The United States has the least problematic view. The headwinds to growth are due to the Fed’s struggle to contain inflation after mischaracterizing rate increases as fleeting and then initially being too timid to adjust monetary policy.

The Fed’s shift to an aggressive front-load of interest rate hikes came too late to prevent the spread of inflation in the services sector and wages. As such, inflation is likely to remain stubborn at around 4 percent, be less sensitive to interest rate policies and expose the economy to greater risk for accidents from additional policy errors that undermine growth.

The uncertainties facing each of these three economic areas suggest that analysts should be more careful in reassuring us that recessionary pressures will be “short and shallow”. They need to be open, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transient.

This is especially important because these diverse drivers of recessionary risk make financial fragility more threatening and policy shifts more difficult, including potentially Japan. Get out of interest rate control Policy. The range of possible outcomes is extraordinarily large.

On the one hand, a better policy response, including improving the supply response and protecting the most vulnerable populations, can counteract the global economic slowdown and, in the case of the United States, avert a recession.

On the other hand, additional policy errors and market turmoil can lead to self-reinforcing vicious cycles with rising inflation and rising interest rates, weakening credit and compressed earnings, and stressing market performance.

Judging by market prices, more bond investors are better understanding this, including by refusing to follow the Fed’s interest rate guidance this year. Instead of a sustainable path to higher rates for 2023, they believe recessionary pressures will lead to cuts later this year. If true, government bonds would provide the yield and potential for badly missed portfolio risk mitigation in 2022.

However, parts of the stock market is still weakly bearish pricing. Reconciling these different scenarios is more important than investors. Without better alignment within markets and with policy signals, the positive economic and financial outcomes we all desire will be no less likely. They will also be challenged by the risk of more unpleasant outcomes at a time of less economic and human resilience.

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Macro hedge funds end 2022 higher, investors say, while many others take big losses By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Svea Herbst Baylis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some hedge funds betting on macroeconomic trends have boasted of double and even triple-digit gains for 2022, while other high-profile companies that have long been on technology stocks have suffered heavy losses in volatile markets, investors said.

Rokos Capital, run by Chris Rokos and one of a handful of so-called global macro companies, gained 51% last year. Fund investors this week, who asked not to be identified, said Brevan Howard Asset Management, the company where Rokos once worked, posted a gain of 20.14% and Caxton Associates returned 16.73%.

Haider Capital Management’s Haider Jupiter Fund rose 193%, an investor said.

Data from hedge fund research showed that many macro managers have avoided crumbling stock markets that have been rocked by rapid interest rate increases and geopolitical turmoil, including the war in Ukraine, to rank among the best performers in the hedge fund industry. The company’s macro index rose 14.2% while the general index of hedge funds fell 4.25%, its first loss since 2018.

Equity hedge funds, where the bulk of the industry’s roughly $3.7 trillion in assets are invested, fared worse with a loss of 10.4%, according to HFR data. And while that beat the broader stock market’s loss of 19.4%, some high-profile funds posted even bigger losses.

Tiger Global Management lost 56% while Whale Rock Capital Management ended the year with a 43% loss and Maverick Capital lost 23%. Coatue Management ended 2022 with a loss of 19%.

But not all companies that bet on technology stocks suffered. John Thaler JAT Capital finished the year with a 3.7% gain after fees after a 33% increase in 2021 and a 46% gain in 2020.

Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE::), where founder Dan Och is fighting the company’s current CEO in court over his salary increase, posted a 13% drop.

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which bet that Elon Musk would be forced to buy Twitter, ended the year up 37% while Rick Sandler’s Eminence Capital rose 7%.

A number of so-called multi-manager companies where teams of portfolio managers bet on a variety of sectors also boast positive returns and have been able to deliver on their promise that hedge funds can deliver better returns in distressed markets.

Balyasny’s Atlas Fund (NYSE: Enhanced) gained 9.7%, while Point72 Asset Management gained 10%. Millennium Management gained 12% while Carlson Capital ended the year with a 7% gain.

Representatives for the companies either did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

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German automakers point to easing supply chain problems

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Sales at BMW and Mercedes-Benz jumped in the final months of 2022 as the German premium auto brands indicated supply chain problems plaguing the industry were abating.

Automakers around the world have experienced parts shortages since the pandemic, especially semiconductors, leaving many of them with large fleets of incomplete vehicles that can’t be delivered to customers.

BMW and Mercedes each said their full-year vehicle deliveries fell last year by 4.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively, due to Suppliers Bottlenecks as well as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

But supply pressures eased in the last quarter of the year, as BMW recorded a 10.6 percent jump in sales, with 651,798 vehicles delivered, and Mercedes fulfilling 540,800 orders, up 17 percent from the same period in 2022.

BMW He said the main effects of supply chain bottlenecks and continued lockdowns were felt in the first six months of the year, adding that “sales were steadily picking up in the second half.”

Mercedes boss Ula Kallenius told the Financial Times last week that the list of problems in the auto supply chain was declining, but added that long waits for cars would continue into 2023.

“One chip is enough to be vital [ . . .] Missing, and then you can’t finish the car, even if you have everything else.

Both brands recorded strong sales growth electric car. Mercedes, which last week announced a plan to build 10,000 charging docks, said EV shipments grew 124 percent to 117,800 last year compared with its predecessor.

Similarly, BMW reported strong growth in electric vehicle sales, with deliveries of fully electric vehicles doubling last year to 215,755.

Analysts at Bank of America said that sales of electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, reached a historic peak last November, with 1.1 million units sold. They attributed this largely to the upcoming phase-out of customer subsidies in Germany.

Participate in Mercedes BMW and BMW prices held steady Tuesday morning as investors priced in an image of an improving showing.

Rolls-Royce, a subsidiary of BMW, announced Monday that sales have hit a 119-year record, driven by strong demand in the United States, its largest market.

The luxury brand has been largely unaffected by the semiconductor pressure, mainly because it makes relatively few compounds and therefore needs fewer chips.

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