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First: the fatal strike launched by Ukraine on the Russian military barracks

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good morning. This article is an in situ version of our website FirstFT the news. Subscribe to our site AsiaAnd the Europe/Africa or The Americas A release to send straight to your inbox every weekday morning

Good morning and happy new year. Welcome to the inaugural FirstFT of 2023.

Moscow said a Ukrainian air strike on a military barracks in the Russian-occupied town of Makievka killed 63 soldiers, in the One of the bloodiest blows to the Kremlin ground forces Since the beginning of the war.

The Defense Ministry said four high-explosive missiles hit the town’s temporary deployment base – a school building located near an ammunition depot and weapons cache. It added that the Russian air defenses shot down two additional missiles, without mentioning when the attack took place.

Russian military bloggers indicated that casualties were far greater than the official figures, claiming that hundreds of newly mobilized troops were dead or missing. While the Ukrainian military did not take credit for the strike, it said in a message on Telegram that the Makievka attack took place on New Year’s Eve, leaving 400 Russian servicemen dead and 300 wounded.

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The air strike shows the damage HIMARS, supplied from the west, can do to Russian forces, who were forced to retreat in the face of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to the east and south last year. But it also indicates a tactical miscalculation of the Russian military’s commanders, according to analysts.

  • FT width: The goal for 2023 should be to give Kyiv all the aid it needs to end the conflict — on its own terms, Our editorial board writes.

1. Japan offers families 1 million yen per child to leave Tokyo As the government attempts to reverse decades of demographic decline, economic immigration, and the lure of the world’s largest city, the Japanese government will offer families Up to 1 million yen ($7,600) per child If they swap Tokyo crammed with out-of-town communes, according to officials familiar with the plan.

2. Home sales in Hong Kong fell to their lowest level in 15 years Home sales in Hong Kong fell 40 percent year on year The lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisisData from the local cadastre and forecasts from real estate agencies are shown. One of the world’s most expensive real estate markets is expected to ease into recession by mid-2023.

Hong Kong housing market dips below zero Covid

3. Recession is expected to hit a third of the world this year It will be a third of the global economy out of recession this yearThe head of the International Monetary Fund said, while warning that the world faces a “tougher” year in 2023 than in the previous 12 months. The United States, the European Union and China are all slowing down simultaneously, said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

4. Turkish exports set a record in 2022 Turkey registered (a) A 13 percent increase in exports by valueYesterday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said sales would reach $254 billion in 2022. The new record comes as the lira’s depreciation has made companies’ products more competitive abroad, with the country also benefiting from close economic ties with Russia.

5. The commodities boom raises fears of big losses for retail investors Retail volumes in commodity futures and the largest commodity-focused mutual funds rose in 2022. But while commodities have had a much better recent track record than stocks and bonds, some market participants and analysts have They expressed concerns about retailers Navigating a highly volatile market dominated by specialized players.

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next day

The new US Congress is sworn in When the 118th US Congress is sworn in on Tuesday, seven new faces will join the ranks of the 100-member Senate. Get to know the newcomersamong them a hoodie-wearing stroke survivor, a Trump-backed author and a former mixed martial arts fighter.

In memory of Pele family Burial contract The Brazilian soccer star after marching through Sao Paulo. Worldwide in the Vatican, will Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI lie in state in the Vatican. (independent, AP)

What else do we read

Business trends, risks and people to watch in 2023 Financial Times correspondents around the world detail what to look out for this year in the corporate world in sectors from energy to private capital and technology. Read our analysis to get a jump start in the new year.

Millennials are breaking the oldest rule in politics People tend to become more conservative as they get older. From the “Silent Generation,” born between 1928 and 1945, to the “Generation X,” who came between 1965 and 1980, this pattern has remained consistent—until now. change him Surprising implications for UK Conservatives and US Republicans.

Graph shows that millennial voters in the UK and US do not follow the usual pattern of becoming more conservative as they age

Experts say Taiwan’s military reforms fall short China’s push for more than two decades to build an armed force capable of realizing its national ambitions has left the Taiwanese military in a precarious position. And the island’s recently announced conscription reform was more than an emergency measure To end the chronic shortage of military personnel, military analysts say.

Startups looking for a cure for aging The fantasy of living forever has been going on for centuries, from finding regeneration in the Fountain of Youth to gaining immortality from the Philosopher’s Stone. But with so many people now spending their last decades in poor health, scientists are on a quest to do more Not only increased lifespan but also Healthspan: the number of healthy years we live.

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Halting China’s growth cannot be the goal of the West Do we want China to fail? This question was asked at a recent seminar attended by Gideon Rachman for Western policymakers and commentators. But the question instead should be: How do we manage China’s continued rise? Gideon writes.

Take a break from the news

The clue 1-across to the latest cryptic crossword puzzle is: Mists shrouds the river in flood (6). See if you can guess the answer.

Thank you for reading and remembering that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

asset Management – Discover the inside story on the movers and shakers behind a multi-billion dollar industry. Participation here

next week Start each week by reviewing what’s on the agenda. Participation here


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Economic

Europe offers a glimmer of optimism amid the global gloom

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This article is an on-site version of the Disrupt Times newsletter. Register here To have our newsletter sent straight to your inbox three times a week

The most important news of the day

  • Salesforce has become the latest tech company to cut costs as demand slows, announcing plans to scale back 10 percent of its workers.

  • British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made it clear in his first major political address since taking office Five promises Who wants to be judged by the public in general elections. One of these big issues is the state of the health service: here’s our explanation of why the NHS exists Worst crisis ever.

  • To be imposed by the European Union Covid tests before departure For travelers coming from China, in light of the new wave of infections in the country, which is still being reported propaganda efforts in Beijing. The World Health Organization called for More transparency.

For the latest news, visit live blog


Good evening.

“We expect a third of the global economy to be in recession,” was the International Monetary Fund’s cheery New Year’s message as it hinted at other possibilities. cut in his expectations for 2023, likely during its annual meeting in Davos later this month.

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But even though the US, Europe and China will all experience some kind of slowdown over the next 12 months, new data this week has highlighted some key differences.

In continental Europe at least, optimism is growing that inflation has peaked. Better than expected The German CPI fell to 9.6 percent From 11.3 per cent lifted European stocks and government bonds to one of the best starts of the year ever. German companies reported an improvement in supply chain disruption And the number of jobs in high after reunification.

inflation in Spain And the France It also fell more than expected, suggesting that the eurozone-wide figure due on Friday could fall 9.7 percent less than expected. Outside the European Union, Turkey has also reported A big drop In inflation, albeit from as high as 85 percent, to 64 percent, thanks to lower food and fuel costs.

However, comfort crumbs are hard to find across the channel.

Industry data showed today UK food inflation was 13.3 per cent, which puts more pressure on distressed families. Other data this week showed industrial production contracted in one of the Fastest prices since 2009; Closing stores hits them highest totals in five years; Mortgage approvals are their responsibility lowest levels in more than two yearshighlighting the turmoil in the housing market sparked by the disastrous September ‘mini’ budget of then Prime Minister Liz Truss.

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Not surprisingly, the Financial Times’ annual survey of economists concludes that the UK is facing The worst and longest recession in the Group of Seven.

The Chinese economy, which until recently was under severe pressure from crippling epidemic restrictions, is now struggling with A new wave of infection After the sudden reopening in the country, it negatively affected the factory activity in the process. For the first time in 40 years, China is likely to be a major drag on the global economy in 2023 rather than a driving force, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The United States, which the International Monetary Fund believes will likely survive the worst of the downturn, thanks in part to its strong labor market, will publish monthly figures on Friday, but new data on… Jobs Today was better than expected.

However, the country’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle, contracting in December for the second month in a row, according to closely watched. ism scan, today too. As for the fight against inflation, minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting later (2pm ET / 7pm London) will give more clues about policymakers’ next steps.

Need to know: UK and European economy

In better news for the beleaguered Brits, recent warm weather across Europe means home energy bills Likely to be Less than previously expectedwhich is lower than the price guarantee provided by the government in the second half of the year.

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Meanwhile, the European Union plans to reform the bloc electricity market give priority to The cheapest renewable energy. Right now, the most expensive fuel—currently gas—determines the price of all power generated. Our Big Read explores whether the consumer is moving to reduce consumption It will have a lasting effect.

Need to know: The global economy

Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, President of Oxfam Great Britain, argues in the Financial Times for the urgency Financial architecture reform to global aid With less of an emphasis on charity and more about responsibility – and enlightened self-interest.

Pakistan Turns to China to fund its overhaul The rail system is creakingEven though it already owes $100 billion in foreign debt and is at risk of default after its foreign exchange reserves plummet.

We can remember 2023 as a new year global energy system It is shaping up as the oil market slowly “dollars back,” says a columnist Rana Forouhar.

And if you can’t get enough of those Predictions for 2023take a look at this Compendium of kicks by Financial Times writers On everything from the war in Ukraine to the prospect of cutting federal interest rates and the future of cryptocurrency.

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Need to know: business

US technology stocks It was a bumpy start to the year, led by big declines for electric car company Tesla and an Apple, which was affected by fears of declining demand. Markets fall globally More than 30 trillion dollars Last year thanks to inflation, high interest rates and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Premium subscribers can check out commentator Robert Armstrong Stocks to watch in 2023.

For more positive tech news, try Technology heroes Report of winners and shortlists for The smartest use of technology. Here’s how readers of sister publication Sifted see next year European technology.

Hollywood heads anticipation “year of unrestWhere the economic downturn coincides with a slowdown in the flow of growth, a faltering film industry and a potential writers’ strike. The boom is in TV content Spending is too It is expected to slow down. cinemaworldThe movie theater operator is in bankruptcy protection in the US, looking for buyers trying to avoid it Partially cut.

price for re Insurance rose up to 200 percent Its crucial January renewals, thanks to the war in Ukraine and severe weather. Reinsurers share losses with primary insurers, and so they have a vital role in what can be insured and at what rate.

Strong and long lasting Cold and flu season As people mix more indoors after two years of pandemic restrictions, this is good news for at least one sector: consumer health. Sales of cold and flu medicines in the UK jumped 28 per cent in value terms to £288.5m in the year to November 27.

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world of work

The economic downturn will be paid to Post-Covid Work Attitudes? The FT team discusses what 2023 holds in the new edition Working on a podcast.

Get ready for what could be a tough year with our new series: Make work better. Read about how to communicate more efficiently, ask for a raise, and if all else fails, leave on better terms.

Another way to improve life is through work Mental health treatments. Companies are beginning to realize that basic wellness programs are failing to make a dent in burnout and Stress-related absence among executives.

And in case you missed it, here are some of them FT search On how to adapt to the city of London Hybrid work It is increasingly adopting a Tuesday-Thursday work week.

Covid cases and vaccinations

Total global cases: 649 million

Total doses administered: 13.1 billion

Get the latest worldwide image through our website Vaccine tracker

Some good news

There may be problems in the future but it is important to acknowledge the progress as well. Here are reasons to be a delight list 183 ways to improve the world in 2022.

Monarch butterfly

Monarch butterfly arrives in Mexico after migrating from Canada. The number of endangered species found in Mexican forests increased by 35% last year © AP

work on it Discover the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces with a weekly newsletter from Work & Careers Editor Isabel Berwick. Participation here

Climate chart: an explanation – Learn about the most important weather data for the week. Participation here

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Biden says US economy is heading for a ‘new plateau’ amid recession fears By Reuters

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© Reuters. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken looks on at President Joe Biden during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin LaMarque

Written by Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the U.S. economy is seeing “really bright spots” after a rough few years, and that it is heading for a “new plateau,” a new term for stable and slower growth seen by White House officials. Before.

While investors, several economists, and some CEOs recently warned of a recession in the United States in 2023, the Biden administration considers that unlikely, in part because of federal spending.

Biden told his cabinet members before a private meeting that he sees $3.5 trillion in public and private investment in manufacturing and technology over the next decade that will boost the American economy and boost the prospects for American businesses and workers.

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“This isn’t about hitting a flat,” the Democratic president said. “It’s about going to a whole new plateau.” “We are the only country in the world that has emerged from the crisis stronger than we entered it.”

Biden cited recent data showing declining inflation, strong growth and a resilient labor market, but said it would be critical to implement the hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending contained in three key signature laws passed last year.

The US economy is expected to grow 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the Atlanta Fed model, while the consumer price index rose 0.1% in November.

He said, “This does not mean that everything is over. It means that we are off to a good and somewhat promising start.” “I just don’t want to make us think we can kind of let off the gas pedal.”

Biden is not alone in his optimism.

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Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, said on Sunday that the United States may avoid an outright deflation that could hurt a third of the world’s economies.

Louis Federal Reserve Chairman James Bullard said Thursday that the risks of a recession in the United States have receded in recent weeks.

However, if the US avoids a recession, it will likely be by a narrow margin. The Federal Reserve projects 0.5% growth in 2023, for example.

Speaking to cabinet members, Biden also praised plans by the US Federal Trade Commission, which enforces antitrust law, to ban companies from requiring workers to sign incomplete reimbursement agreements and certain training reimbursement agreements that prevent workers from leaving for better jobs.

“Bottom line, I think our economic vision is working, we’re in the process of doing the first parts we’ve done and we’ll move forward,” he said.

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Biden’s upbeat comments came as Wall Street’s major indexes closed down more than 1%, with evidence of a tight labor market devouring any hopes investors had that the Federal Reserve might soon halt its rate-raising cycle.

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Falling inflation in Europe

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The Fed’s meeting minutes show that the central bank is still looking to raise interest rates this year

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