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First: McCarthy is fighting to be Speaker of the House until the fourth day

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The competition for the next speaker of the US House of Representatives is scheduled to enter the fourth day, after the deputies voted to postpone the procedures yesterday evening after Historic defeat on the eleventh ballot for Republican Kevin McCarthy Amidst a difficult impasse in Washington.

Despite recent trench attempts by McCarthy To quell dissent and secure the votes he needed to be elected president, 20 Republicans voted against him again and again, depriving him of the simple majority needed to win sledgehammer.

The ongoing stalemate has exposed long-simmering tensions in the Republican Party and raised questions about how lawmakers will be able to chart a path forward.

McCarthy resisted calls for him to step down in favor of another Republican, and Democrats objected to suggestions that they might support McCarthy or work with Republicans to choose another president.

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1. UK signs cancer trials agreement with BioNTech The UK government is partnering with German Covid-19 vaccine maker BioNTech to enroll up to 10,000 patients in clinical trials in order to Advanced cancer treatments. BioNTech said it would open a research and development center with 75 employees in Cambridge and an office in London, and may later consider investing in UK manufacturing.

2. Create Taiwan’s domestic satellite hero to resist China Taiwan is in talks with a number of domestic and international investors to help its space agency Establishing its own satellite communications provider. Inspired by Elon Musk’s Starlink role in the war in Ukraine, Taipei is stepping up efforts to fortify itself against a potential attack from China.

3. The “social tariff” required in Britain with high energy bills to bear Major energy suppliers and fuel poverty campaigners are urging UK ministers to engage in an ‘open and frank’ dialogue on how to do this. Addressing rising energy costs in the coming yearsespecially for the most vulnerable, as analysts warn that wholesale gas prices may not return to “normal” before 2030.

Line chart of pennies per heat showing average monthly wholesale gas prices during the winter

4. Low inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from further rate hikes Inflation in the Eurozone probably fell to single digits for the first time in three months in December. However, it is also likely to be a ECB ‘will stick to its hawkish rhetoric’ Prices are rising in the near term, said Franzisca Palmas, chief economist for Europe at research group Capital Economics.

5. China’s new renminbi tactics keep traders guessing The Chinese currency fell by nearly 8 percent last year against the dollar, but Beijing has facilitated this decline by using tools such as the so-called “Invisible reserves” held by state banksinstead of its traditionally harsh intervention by the People’s Bank of China.

How good is it to keep up with the news this week? Take our test.

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next day

Putin’s 36-hour ceasefire is set to begin in Ukraine the Ceasefire ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin Orthodox Christmas is set to begin, despite its refusal by Kyiv, which called it hypocrisy and a propaganda attempt.

Anniversary of the US Capitol attack US President Joe Biden will Giving remarks at the White House On the occasion of the second anniversary of the January 6 uprising. In a final report released at the end of the year, a congressional committee said former President Donald Trump is “central cause” From last year’s attack on the US Capitol. (The Hill, Financial Times)

Eurozone inflation figures In continental Europe, optimism is growing that inflation has peaked. Low inflation in the member states indicates that today’s expected figure at the eurozone level may fall less than expected by 9.7 percent. Read more in our Disrupt Times newsletter.

Returning to its regular January schedule, the World Economic Forum’s 2023 annual meeting will bring together global leaders in Switzerland next week. Join FT Live in Davos for in-person and digital events from 16th to 20th January. View events and register for free here.

What else do we read and watch

Moscow Diaries: Fear, Loathing, and Deep Denial While missiles rain down on Kyiv and villages in Russia’s hinterland, it has lost much of its adult male population to conscription, Putin’s war does not seem to have changed Moscow that much. “Nobody does any self-reflection. What’s the point? If you stop to stop and think about it, it just gets worse,” a Kremlin-linked businessman grumbles to Max Seddon, the Financial Times’ Moscow bureau chief.

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New Year's decorations of the Kremlin star bearing the letter Z at the entrance to Gorky Park
New Year’s decorations of the Kremlin star bearing the letter Z at the entrance to Gorky Park © Getty Images

Ruchir Sharma’s Investor’s Guide: From Peak Dollars to Better TV Ruchir Sharma points out that a sudden change in the price of money is a fundamental break with the past, but many business leaders do not act. As this stage progresses, big businessmen, companies, currencies and countries that thrived on easy money will stumble. Make room for new winnerswith a discriminatory provision shaping the trends of 2023.

🎥 Watch: How India can revolutionize women’s cricket The Indian Premier League has transformed cricket from a game struggling for a future into one of the most valuable sporting assets in the world. While the top men’s players have become millionaires, The female players struggled to make ends meet. The launch of a women’s league could change the game around the world.

Premium subscribers can get more sports business by Register on the scoreboard the news.

What happened to Google search? Google search was once one of the wonders of the internet. Writes Eileen Moore. “Clean, orderly results pages navigated the Internet’s unmanageable information load. That was until it was filled with ads.”

How a drug partnership led to a mutation in breast cancer Often medicine does not receive a warm welcome. When Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca announce impressive breast cancer treatment results, Enhertu, Oncologists rose to their feet to applaud. “It was a shocking moment, sending chills down my spine,” said Susan Galbraith, who leads oncology research and development at AstraZeneca.

Take a break from the news

our Six movies to watch this week Including a pouting Tom Hanks in A man called OttoAntonio Banderas as a killer in a classic car port Christian Bale Meet Edgar Allan Poe In Pale blue eye.

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Tom Hanks and Mariana Trevino in A Man Called Otto
Tom Hanks and Mariana Treviño in A Man Called Otto © Niko Tavernise

Thank you for reading and remembering that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

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Economic

BoE Pill Sees Persistent Inflation Risk, Even If Gas Price Falls By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the Bank of England building in London, Britain on November 3, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville

By David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain risks persistent inflationary pressures from a tightening labor market, Bank of England chief economist Howe Bell said on Monday, even if prices stabilize or fall.

Bell said in a speech he will deliver in New York later on Monday.

“(This) will strongly influence my position on my monetary policy in the coming months,” he added.

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The Bank of England has released a transcript of Bell’s comments ahead of the speech he plans to give to the Capital Market Association at New York University.

The Bank of England raised its key rate to 3.5% in December, up from 0.1% a year earlier, and financial markets expect the central bank to raise interest rates again to 4% in its next policy announcement on February 2nd.

However, economists and markets are divided on how much further the price hike will be beyond that. Inflation has fallen slightly since it hit a 41-year peak of 11.1% in October, and the British economy appears to be entering a shallow recession.

Bell said that even if there was a drop in natural gas prices, the main driver of the latest spike in inflation, that was no guarantee that underlying price pressures would fall enough for inflation to return to the BoE’s 2% target.

Bell said businesses and workers need to accept lower inflation-adjusted profit margins and wages than they were before the energy shock.

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“The more companies try to maintain real profit margins, and employees try to maintain real wages at pre-energy price shock levels, the more likely it is that domestically generated inflation will pick up its own momentum,” Bell said.

Britain is currently facing a wave of strikes as trade unions seek to reduce the impact of inflation on their members’ salaries.

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Strong economic data points to a shallow recession in the Eurozone

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Unemployment in the eurozone hit a new record low, while output from German factories rose in November, boosting hopes of a milder economic slowdown than fears in the single currency area.

Figures from Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics office, showed that the number of people in the labor market without work fell slightly in November. Eurostat reported that 10.849 million workers were without jobs, 2,000 fewer than the previous month and the lowest since records began. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged since October at 6.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office reported that industrial production rose 0.2 percent between October and November, a reading slightly better than the 0.1 percent expansion forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Francesca Palmas, chief economist for Europe at Capital Economics, a research firm, said the rise confirmed that German manufacturing strength “held up better than expected” during the fourth quarter of 2022.

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On Friday, Germany’s statistics office is set to publish its first estimate of last year’s gross domestic product, which economists expect to show the economy contracted by a modest amount during the last three months of 2022.

The rise in energy prices last spring after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised fears of energy shortages and a deep recession in the eurozone. However, economists have steadily raised their growth estimates in recent months on the back of better-than-expected incoming data and falling wholesale gas prices.

Investor sentiment regarding the Eurozone economy also improved. The Syntex market sentiment index, also published on Monday, showed the third consecutive increase in January to the highest level since June 2022. Patrick Hussey, managing director of Syntex, said.

The resilience of the eurozone economy and its labor market it is expected that It leads to more interest rate increases by the European Central Bank.

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With unemployment stuck at historically low levels, “the ECB’s hawkish tone is likely to multiply with further tightening in the coming months,” says Paolo Grignani, economist at Oxford Economics.

Markets are pricing in a 50 basis point increase in interest rates when the European Central Bank meets on February 2nd. That would be up from the 2.5 percentage point increases since June last year, which took the deposit rate to 2 percent in December.

A tight labor market could boost wage growth and keep core inflation higher for longer. While the headline inflation rate fell to single digits in December, come in at 9.2 percentCore inflation — which excludes changes in food and energy costs and is seen as a better measure of long-term price pressures — rose from 5 percent to 5.2 percent.

Line chart of 2022 GDP growth forecasts, by forecast date showing that economists have revised their 2022 economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone

Bert Collin, chief eurozone economist at ING, noted that the strength of the labor market “makes it a key risk for the ECB’s second round inflationary effects.” With a tight labor market, Cullen added, “unemployment is unlikely to rise enough to make labor shortages a thing of the past.”

Between October and November, the unemployment rate in Italy, France and Spain fell by 0.1 percentage point to 7.8 percent, 7 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively. It remained at 3 percent in Germany.

Melanie Debono, chief economist for Europe at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said fiscal support across the eurozone should prevent a “significant increase in unemployment,” despite the economic downturn.

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UK and EU Hit Break in Brexit Talks on Sharing Trade Database By Bloomberg

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& Copy Bloomberg. A Royal Mail Plc transporter trailer is loaded onto a ferry at the Port of Larne in Larne, Northern Ireland, UK, on ​​Tuesday, July 5, 2022. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants Parliament to pass his plan to override the Brexit deal by The end is from 2022, but it could take up to a year to become law if the House of Lords gets involved. Photographer: Emily McInnes/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — The European Union is preparing to agree to use the UK’s live database to track goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, the first sign of progress in a long-running dispute over post-Brexit trading rules.

An agreement was finalized at a lunch between British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and European Commission Vice President Maros Sefkovic on Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Someone said that the block completed the test of the database proposed by the United Kingdom last year, and suggested several areas for improvement. The person added that the UK had agreed to work on the comments.

This development is the first hurdle cleared since talks began again last year after eight months of deadlock. Although a technical step, the database deal will raise hopes of a further agreement on trade flows, and may help reduce customs checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

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The UK government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

© 2023 Bloomberg LP

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