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Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to Derivatives data, but for how long?




ether (ETHThe price fell by 11.9% from November 20 to November 22, reaching as low as $1074 – the lowest seen since July. For now, investors have reason to worry after the cryptocurrency lending company Genesis reportedly encountered difficulties Raising money, sparking rumors of bankruptcy on November 21.

However, a Genesis spokesperson told Cointelegraph that there are no plans for imminent bankruptcy as the company continues to hold discussions with its creditors.

Concern about the centralization of decentralized finance (DeFi) arose next Uniswap Labs has changed its privacy policy On November 17, it revealed that it collects publicly available blockchain data, users’ browser information, operating system data and interactions with service providers.

Adding to the scuffle, the hacker is behind $447 million FTX exchange heist Their funds were spotted being transferred from Ether. On November 20, the attacker transferred 50,000 ETH to a separate wallet and converted it into Bitcoin using two renBTC bridges.

Traders fear that the hacker may suppress the price of ether to profit using leveraged short bets. The rumor was spread by @kundunsan on November 15, though the Twitter post did not gain traction.


Let’s look at ether derivatives Data to understand whether deteriorating market conditions have affected cryptocurrency investor sentiment.

Professional traders have been in a panic since November 10th

Quarterly futures contracts are usually avoided by retail traders because their prices are different from the spot markets, but they are preferred tools for professional traders because they prevent the volatility of funding rates that often occurs in Perpetual forward contract.

Annual premium for 2-month Ether futures. Source:

The three-month futures APR should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover the associated costs and risks. The chart above shows that derivatives traders have been in a downtrend since November 10 since the Ether futures premium was negative.

There is currently a lag in contracts and this is an unusual situation and is usually considered bearish. The metric has not improved after ETH surged 5% on November 22, reflecting the unwillingness of professional traders to add long (bullish) positions with leverage.

Traders should also analyze Ether Options Markets To exclude external factors specific to the futures instrument.

Options traders fear additional crashes

A delta deviation of 25% is a significant sign when market makers and arbitrage bureaus overcharge opportunities to gain protection from an upside or downside.


In a bear market, options investors give higher odds of price dumping, causing the skew index to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bull markets tend to push the index deviation below -10%, which means that bearish put options are discounted.

Ether options 60 days at 25% delta deviation: Source:

The delta deviation has been above the 10% threshold since November 9, indicating that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. The situation worsened over the following days as the delta deviation rose above 20%.

The 60-day delta deviation is currently 23%, so whales and market makers are seeking higher odds for Ether price dumps. Hence, derivatives data shows low confidence as Ether struggles to hold the $1,100 support.

According to the data, ether bulls shouldn’t throw in the towel just yet because these metrics tend to be lagging behind. The panic that followed FTX’s bankruptcy and subsequent liquidity issues at Genesis may dissipate quickly if Public exchanges to prove reserves And the Institutional investors add exposure to bitcoin During a decline, it is interpreted as positive by market participants.

For now, however, ether bears still have the upper hand as measured by ETH derivatives.