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Could this be an industrial disease?

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This article is an on-site version of The Week Ahead newsletter. Participation over here Get our newsletter sent straight to your inbox every Sunday

Hello, and welcome to Work Week.

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Or if you’re in the UK, Non-Working Week – Today’s title is for Dire Straits fans. Industrial unrest in Britain has been described as: The second winter of discontent (despite no patch in the mass strikes that struck the United Kingdom in 1978-79) and are set to culminate in the coming days, with railway and postal workers, NHS staff And driving instructors (yes, it surprised me too) are all out because of wages and conditions.

Monday closes a vote among RMT members on the latest wage offer for railway workers, with the railway union recommending that members Reject the proposed deal. the offer It could be much higher But the Financial Times revealed last week that government ministers had blocked a 10 per cent increase in wages over two years. The latest of RMT’s many 48-hour strikes that RMT has planned over the Christmas period will start on Tuesday.

More than a million working days You are expected to get lost in strikes in the UK in December, the worst disruption of any month since the end of Margaret Thatcher’s term in office.

Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s administration Enact anti-strike legislationWe may hear more about that this week, but successive Tory prime ministers have made similar pledges that have not come to fruition. Whatever Sunak does now it will be too late for him Escalation in industrial work during the christmas holidays.

Do you want some better news? On Tuesday, it will be the first of a new generation of European weather satellites Launched In space from Kourou in French Guiana. Despite what Billy Bragg sings about his desire for space instruments, the €4.3 billion Meteosat third-generation (MTG) system provides a real leap forward for meteorologists, providing more accurate forecasts, including better warnings than impending storms.

Three satellites will hover in a geostationary orbit 36,000 km above the equator over Africa. From there they will provide images of Europa every two and a half minutes, including the first comprehensive observations of lightning from space. In doing so, the system is expected to save lives that would otherwise be lost in severe weather.

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Then there is football.

If you hate the FIFA World Cup, you will be happy to know that it is the last week of the tournament. If you like it, you can have a try An unusual month For the beautiful game with the four remaining teams playing in the semi-finals on Wednesday before the final on Sunday – read on Financial Times coverage For full details.

Thank you for your messages about this weekly tour. Send me an email to jonathan.moules@ft.com Or if you received the newsletter via email, just click Reply.

Economic data

It’s not just strikes that are gathering this week. Markets focus on three interest rate announcements from the shortening economies: the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom. All three are expected to fall back somewhat on their planned highs.

There is also a wealth of data from the US and the UK that influence rate-setting commissions. The gap between short- and long-term borrowing costs — the widest since 1981 — has reinforced expectations among investors that the Fed will do just that. Stay on course to tighten monetary policy to tame inflation, despite growing concerns about a recession.

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The last time the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee met, in early November, attention focused on restoring confidence in the country’s economic management. The Bank of England continues Hard talkHowever, this time the MPC’s response is expected to be more measured. A 0.5 percentage point rise in the core rate is expected on Thursday, rather than repeating the 0.75 percentage point rise last month.

The week ends with flash G7 PMI numbers. There is also a summit of EU leaders and OPEC publishes its monthly outlook report.

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It’s a quiet week for earnings announcements, but one with some notable companies reporting from certain sectors. In retail fashion, there is H&Mwhich was talked about recovery in the Chinese market After a long-standing consumer boycott. Expectations are also high for Spain Inditex, home of the Zara brand and others. For technology, there is a file acquisition inspiration. In the field of outsourcing, capital And the Circo they represent.

Major economic reports and company reports

Below is a complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • India, Consumer Price Index inflation figures for November

  • UK October GDP estimate, industrial production and trade balance data

  • consequences: inspiration Q2

Tuesday

  • Germany, ZEW Survey and November Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation numbers

  • United Kingdom, Labor Market Statistics for December

  • United States, CPI inflation figures for November

  • consequences: capital Trading update

Wednesday

  • European Union, industrial production figures for October

  • Japan, revised industrial production figures for October (AM local time)

  • OPEC releases its latest monthly report on the oil market

  • UK Inflation Rate Figures, November Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • United States, Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision

  • consequences: Inditex Q3, tui fiscal year , Weber Q4

Thursday

  • China, November retail sales and industrial production figures

  • Meeting of the European Union Monetary Policy Council and the European Central Bank

  • Japan, trade balance data for November (AM local time)

  • New Zealand, third quarter GDP numbers

  • UK Monetary Policy Committee and Bank of England rate setting meeting

  • UK, budget statement in the Scottish Parliament, including tax and spending plans for 2023-24

  • US, November retail sales and industrial production figures

  • consequences: Adobe Q4, piva H1, curry H1, H&M Q4 sales update, OVS Q3, Circo Q3

Friday

  • Magic Quadruple Day, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and individual stock futures contracts expire within the last hour of stock exchange trading

  • EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data

  • European Union, HCIP Inflation Rate Figures for November

  • Russia, the decision of the Central Bank to set the interest rate

  • Quarterly review of the UK index, FTSE UK with AbrdnAnd the paisley And the ware group set to replace Ducra PharmaceuticalsAnd the Harbor Energy And the Waseet Capital Group in the FTSE 100

  • UK, Retail Sales figures for November and GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

  • consequences: Hollywood Theatre fiscal year

world events

Finally, here’s a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

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Monday

  • France, an international conference held in Paris in support of Ukrainian civil resilience, organized by French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

  • Kenya Independence Day Public holiday

  • The nominations for the 80th Golden Globe Awards in the United States were announced ahead of the awards ceremony on January 10

Tuesday

  • An annual Geminids meteor shower is likely to occur climax this eveningas sightings of shooting stars are set to accelerate as the night progresses

  • French Guiana, launch of an Ariane 5 rocket carrying the European Space Agency Meteosat third generation satellite

  • United Kingdom A 48-hour strike by more than 40,000 workers across the rail network and 14 train companies begins a long-running dispute over jobs, wages and terms. Driver testers at the Public and Commercial Services Union are also being struck in a separate dispute over wages. Nurses, Royal Mail staff at the Communications Workers’ Union, bus drivers and baggage handlers are all set to strike later this week.

  • United Kingdom, Ofsted publishes its annual report on schools in England

  • United States, President Joe Biden hosts a Washington summit with the leaders of African countries

Wednesday

Thursday

  • Meeting of the European Union and the European Council of Heads of State and Government of the European Union, chaired by Council President Charles Michel

  • The United States and NASA launch the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Project (elbow grease) satellite, which is the focus of an international mission to conduct the world’s first comprehensive survey of Earth’s water surfaces, from oceans to lakes and rivers.

Friday

  • Kazakhstan, Independence Day, public holiday

  • South Africa, ruling African National Congress begins meeting to review its policies and elect new leadership, including party chief Cyril Ramaphosa

  • UK, 72-hour strike begins by 350 Heathrow ground handlers working for Menzies. Also, more than 100 Eurostar security personnel who work for facilities management company Mitie are set to come out in a pay dispute.

Saturday

Sunday

Broken times Document changes in business and the economy between COVID and conflict. Participation over here

work on it Discover the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces with a weekly newsletter from Work & Careers Editor Isabel Berwick. Participation over here

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Economic

We need to pay more attention to skewed economic signals

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The writer is chair of Queen’s College, Cambridge and advisor to Allianz and Gramercy

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world, especially for advanced economies that have a consequential impact on the global economy and markets.

The effects have been seen in declining living standards, increasing inequality, increasing borrowing costs, stock and bond market losses, and occasional financial mishaps (fortunately small and so far contained).

In this new year, recession, both actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driving seat of the global economy and is likely to replace it. It’s a development that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wide range of possible outcomes — something that a growing number of bond investors seem to be aware of more than their equity counterparts.

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International Monetary Fund iYou will likely review soon Her economic growth forecasts again, predicting that “a third of the world will be hit by recession this year”. What is particularly notable to me about these worsening global prospects is not only that the world’s three major economic regions – China, the European Union and the United States – are slowing down together, but also that this is happening for different reasons.

In China, a chaotic exit from the wrong Covid-19 policy is undermining demand and causing more supply disruptions. Such headwinds to domestic and global economic well-being will continue as long as China fails to improve the coverage and effectiveness of its vaccination efforts. The strength and sustainability of the subsequent recovery will also require that the country more vigorously renew a growth model that can no longer rely on greater globalization.

The European Union continues to deal with energy supply disruptions as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Strengthening inventory management and reorientation of energy supplies is well advanced in many countries. However, it is not yet sufficient to lift immediate constraints on growth, let alone resolve long-term structural headwinds.

The United States has the least problematic view. The headwinds to growth are due to the Fed’s struggle to contain inflation after mischaracterizing rate increases as fleeting and then initially being too timid to adjust monetary policy.

The Fed’s shift to an aggressive front-load of interest rate hikes came too late to prevent the spread of inflation in the services sector and wages. As such, inflation is likely to remain stubborn at around 4 percent, be less sensitive to interest rate policies and expose the economy to greater risk for accidents from additional policy errors that undermine growth.

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The uncertainties facing each of these three economic areas suggest that analysts should be more careful in reassuring us that recessionary pressures will be “short and shallow”. They need to be open, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transient.

This is especially important because these diverse drivers of recessionary risk make financial fragility more threatening and policy shifts more difficult, including potentially Japan. Get out of interest rate control Policy. The range of possible outcomes is extraordinarily large.

On the one hand, a better policy response, including improving the supply response and protecting the most vulnerable populations, can counteract the global economic slowdown and, in the case of the United States, avert a recession.

On the other hand, additional policy errors and market turmoil can lead to self-reinforcing vicious cycles with rising inflation and rising interest rates, weakening credit and compressed earnings, and stressing market performance.

Judging by market prices, more bond investors are better understanding this, including by refusing to follow the Fed’s interest rate guidance this year. Instead of a sustainable path to higher rates for 2023, they believe recessionary pressures will lead to cuts later this year. If true, government bonds would provide the yield and potential for badly missed portfolio risk mitigation in 2022.

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However, parts of the stock market is still weakly bearish pricing. Reconciling these different scenarios is more important than investors. Without better alignment within markets and with policy signals, the positive economic and financial outcomes we all desire will be no less likely. They will also be challenged by the risk of more unpleasant outcomes at a time of less economic and human resilience.

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Economic

Macro hedge funds end 2022 higher, investors say, while many others take big losses By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Svea Herbst Baylis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some hedge funds betting on macroeconomic trends have boasted of double and even triple-digit gains for 2022, while other high-profile companies that have long been on technology stocks have suffered heavy losses in volatile markets, investors said.

Rokos Capital, run by Chris Rokos and one of a handful of so-called global macro companies, gained 51% last year. Fund investors this week, who asked not to be identified, said Brevan Howard Asset Management, the company where Rokos once worked, posted a gain of 20.14% and Caxton Associates returned 16.73%.

Haider Capital Management’s Haider Jupiter Fund rose 193%, an investor said.

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Data from hedge fund research showed that many macro managers have avoided crumbling stock markets that have been rocked by rapid interest rate increases and geopolitical turmoil, including the war in Ukraine, to rank among the best performers in the hedge fund industry. The company’s macro index rose 14.2% while the general index of hedge funds fell 4.25%, its first loss since 2018.

Equity hedge funds, where the bulk of the industry’s roughly $3.7 trillion in assets are invested, fared worse with a loss of 10.4%, according to HFR data. And while that beat the broader stock market’s loss of 19.4%, some high-profile funds posted even bigger losses.

Tiger Global Management lost 56% while Whale Rock Capital Management ended the year with a 43% loss and Maverick Capital lost 23%. Coatue Management ended 2022 with a loss of 19%.

But not all companies that bet on technology stocks suffered. John Thaler JAT Capital finished the year with a 3.7% gain after fees after a 33% increase in 2021 and a 46% gain in 2020.

Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE::), where founder Dan Och is fighting the company’s current CEO in court over his salary increase, posted a 13% drop.

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David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which bet that Elon Musk would be forced to buy Twitter, ended the year up 37% while Rick Sandler’s Eminence Capital rose 7%.

A number of so-called multi-manager companies where teams of portfolio managers bet on a variety of sectors also boast positive returns and have been able to deliver on their promise that hedge funds can deliver better returns in distressed markets.

Balyasny’s Atlas Fund (NYSE: Enhanced) gained 9.7%, while Point72 Asset Management gained 10%. Millennium Management gained 12% while Carlson Capital ended the year with a 7% gain.

Representatives for the companies either did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

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German automakers point to easing supply chain problems

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Sales at BMW and Mercedes-Benz jumped in the final months of 2022 as the German premium auto brands indicated supply chain problems plaguing the industry were abating.

Automakers around the world have experienced parts shortages since the pandemic, especially semiconductors, leaving many of them with large fleets of incomplete vehicles that can’t be delivered to customers.

BMW and Mercedes each said their full-year vehicle deliveries fell last year by 4.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively, due to Suppliers Bottlenecks as well as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

But supply pressures eased in the last quarter of the year, as BMW recorded a 10.6 percent jump in sales, with 651,798 vehicles delivered, and Mercedes fulfilling 540,800 orders, up 17 percent from the same period in 2022.

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BMW He said the main effects of supply chain bottlenecks and continued lockdowns were felt in the first six months of the year, adding that “sales were steadily picking up in the second half.”

Mercedes boss Ula Kallenius told the Financial Times last week that the list of problems in the auto supply chain was declining, but added that long waits for cars would continue into 2023.

“One chip is enough to be vital [ . . .] Missing, and then you can’t finish the car, even if you have everything else.

Both brands recorded strong sales growth electric car. Mercedes, which last week announced a plan to build 10,000 charging docks, said EV shipments grew 124 percent to 117,800 last year compared with its predecessor.

Similarly, BMW reported strong growth in electric vehicle sales, with deliveries of fully electric vehicles doubling last year to 215,755.

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Analysts at Bank of America said that sales of electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, reached a historic peak last November, with 1.1 million units sold. They attributed this largely to the upcoming phase-out of customer subsidies in Germany.

Participate in Mercedes BMW and BMW prices held steady Tuesday morning as investors priced in an image of an improving showing.

Rolls-Royce, a subsidiary of BMW, announced Monday that sales have hit a 119-year record, driven by strong demand in the United States, its largest market.

The luxury brand has been largely unaffected by the semiconductor pressure, mainly because it makes relatively few compounds and therefore needs fewer chips.

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