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‘China is long, Europe is short,’ says Wells Fargo in Automotive Industry Analysis (NYSE:BWA).

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According to Wells Fargo, the recovery from the COVID production shutdown should boost growth for auto manufacturers and suppliers exposed to China, while the escalating energy crisis leaves Europe unattractive.

In a note to customers before In earnings season, a team of analysts at the bank led by Colin Langan noted that the conservative estimates of many automakers have greatly mitigated downside risks in upcoming reports. In fact, much of the car’s space is expected to live up to the hesitant consensus expectations and already conservative guidance throughout the year most management teams have provided in their coverage.

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“We expect more than half of our indicative coverage with the rest directed near the low end of the current ranges,” Langan told clients. “[BorgWarner] (New York Stock Exchange:BWA), [Aptiv] (New York Stock Exchange:APTV), And the [Visteon Corp.] (Nasdaq:VCThe best screen, helped in part by the high Chinese mix. With investor expectations low, the guidance contract is likely to be viewed positively.”

The three listed suppliers were cited as “likely to beat” expectations based on an anticipation of a stronger-than-estimated recovery in China’s light vehicle production. Burgwarner (BWA), optiv (APTV) and Visteon (VC) gets 24%, 22% and 20% of its sales from the region, according to the bank.

“Abtif (APTV) should benefit from Tesla’s 42% quarter-on-quarter growth, venture capital should benefit from a recovery [General Motors] (GMLangan wrote) China JVs (+35% quarterly), and BWA should benefit from conservative margin guidance. “We are slightly above GM’s estimate for the third quarter, although this quarter will likely depend on ~90,000 partially assembled vehicles completed in the second quarter. We are assuming that GM completed half, which would increase GMNA delivery by more than 10 percent. % on a quarterly basis.

Additionally, Autoliv (New York Stock Exchange:ALVIt was promoted because its sales to China had a 21% exposure.

However, rising Chinese production and easing expectations are offset by increasingly adverse conditions in Europe, according to the analysis. While global production is expected to rise due to the recovery in China, a 20% and 29% decline in European light vehicle production is expected in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, respectively.

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“We only see downside risks to fiscal guidance due to weakness in Europe (33% of average supplier sales), growing currency market headwinds, and potential business interruptions due to the EU energy crisis,” Langan said. “In general, we see [Magna International] (MGA) & [Lear Corporation] (LEA) as most at risk of losing and downgrading routing. Both screens are below average in Q3 platform analysis and have a high EU mix.”

Ford (F) Production is also expected to be negatively affected by the European recession driven by rising inflation and energy costs. Output is expected to fall “as much as 10%,” according to bank analysts. “We are lowering our earnings per share estimate for 2022-23 to reflect the impact of lower global production and the energy inflation crisis,” Langan wrote. “We are going to cut the 2022E from $2.00 to $1.95, and the 2023E from $1.20 to $1.15.”

Director general (GM), in contrast, is expected to be buoyed by exposure to China and mitigating the effects of semiconductor shortages allowing it to maintain its EBIT orientation. However, the Langan team ranked General Motors (GM) at an equivalent price for sale side by side with Ford )F), based on its stake in Cruise, adjusting its adjusted pension liability for rising interest rates, and persistent inflationary pressures.

In fact, public opinion despite optimistic comments about China was one of pessimism.

“We are lowering our estimates across our coverage to reflect the significant increase in headwinds in the FX market and to incorporate potential business disruptions related to the EU energy crisis and inflationary costs,” Langan concluded.

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Besides the EPS revisions downward, rate targets have been trimmed across much of the bank’s coverage as well.

  • Adient plc (ADNT): Target price by purchase reduced from $45 to $37.

  • Aptiv PLC (APTV): Neutral rated target price lowered from $101 to $92

  • Autoliv, Inc. (ALV): Target price reduced from $79 to $76.

  • BorgWarner Corporation (BWA): Target price by purchase reduced from $57 to $52.

  • Dana Incorporated (Dan): Neutral rated target price reduced from $16 to $14

  • Lear Company (LEA): Target price reduced by purchase from $173 to $157

  • Magna International Inc. (MGA): Target price reduced by purchase from $77 to $62

Read more about Morgan Stanley’s latest Updates to Ford and General Motors estimates.

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Core PCE prices in the US rose less than expected; spending gains

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(Bloomberg) — A key measure of U.S. consumer prices posted its second-smallest increase this year while spending accelerated, offering hope that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will curb inflation without sparking a recession.

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Commerce Department data on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed this week is a more accurate measure of inflationary sentiment, rose less than expected by 0.2% in October from the previous month.

Compared to a year earlier, the gauge rose 5%, which is down from an upwardly revised 5.2% increase in September.

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The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% for the third month and was up 6% from a year ago, still well above the central bank’s target of 2%.

Personal spending, adjusted for changes in prices, rose 0.5% in October, the most since the start of the year and largely reflecting a rise in spending on goods.

Similar to last month’s CPI data, the report shows that while inflation has begun to ease, it is still very high. While a slowdown is certainly welcome, Powell stressed on Wednesday that the US is far from price stability and that it will take “significantly more evidence” to provide comfort that inflation is in fact declining.

Policymakers are expected to continue raising interest rates next year, albeit at a slower pace, and remain on hold for some time.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 0.3% monthly increase in the core PCE price index and a 0.4% advance in the overall measure. The S&P 500 rose, the dollar fell, and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated.

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What Bloomberg tells the economy…

The larger-than-expected slowdown in PCE prices in October adds to the case for a gradual increase in the pace of rate hikes at the upcoming FOMC meetings. However, there was strength elsewhere: Consumer spending started the fourth quarter at a strong clip, gains in wage income remained strong, and government distributions of refundable tax credits — which boosted income — likely just aren’t a one-off.”

Andrew Hesby and Eliza Winger, economists

For the full note, click here.

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Supported by a flexible labor market and continued wage increases, the pick-up in household spending points to a strong start for GDP in the fourth quarter.

Inflation-adjusted expenditures for goods jumped 1.1% in October, driven by new vehicle purchases. Spending on services rose 0.2%, supported by expenditures on health care, food services, accommodation, housing and utilities.

However, it is unclear whether consumers will be able to maintain this momentum in 2023.

With inflation continuing to outpace wage gains, many families are relying on savings, stimulus checks from some state governments, and credit cards to keep spending. There is growing concern that tight monetary policy will push the US economy into recession.

Low savings rate

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The Commerce Department report showed that the savings rate fell to 2.3% in October, the lowest level since 2005.

Inflation-adjusted disposable income rose 0.4%, the largest rise in three months. Non-price wages and salaries increased by 0.5%. The report also noted that one-time payments issued by countries boosted income in October.

Continued wage gains, particularly in the service sectors, could keep inflation consistently above the Fed’s target for a long time, underscoring the importance of the labor market to the Fed’s decision-making in the months ahead.

A measure of core services inflation that excludes housing and energy, Powell said on Wednesday “may be the most important category for understanding the future development of core inflation,” which was revised in October from the previous month.

Data released on Friday is expected to show that employers added another 200,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate remained at a historically low level of 3.7%.

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— with assistance from Matthew Boesler and Kristy Scheuble.

(Adds Market Open, comment from Bloomberg Economics)

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© Bloomberg LP 2022

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Tivic Health has an agreement with ALOM for product supply chain and logistics

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The company also recently announced additional steps to reduce cost and improve margin, including the implementation of a manufacturing partnership with Microart Services, which is expected to reduce printed circuit board subassembly costs by up to 70% while increasing manufacturing scalability.

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Poisoning, Adultery, Incest, Murder, and Mayhem: A Family History of Humankind

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A lot of world dates have popped up in the past few years, but this one is different. It is a family history of the world–not a global history of families, tracing how marital unions evolved from the loose alliances common to hunter-gatherers through the strict patriarchy of peasant societies to the dizzying diversity of residential groups in the twenty-first century, but rather a history of the world as evidenced by the lives of specific families.

Simon Sebag Montefiore, whose previous books included a living history of the Romanovs, begins with the oldest known person of his name, an accountant named Kushim, who lived in the third millennium BC in the Middle East.

As it progresses through time, the geographic range of The world: a family history It expands steadily. By 1150 BC, the story has expanded to include King Wuding of the violent, ancestor-worshipping Shang dynasty of China, who ruled with his favorite wife, Lady Hao. By 800 BC, we hear of King Alara of Kush, who is believed to have married his sister and built mud-brick pyramids in what are now Egypt and Sudan. In the sixth century B.C., we join the greedy Alcmaeonids in Athens; Around 300 BC, we meet King Chandragupta and his mother in India; And by the second century AD, we find ourselves in Tikal at the court of the bloodthirsty Mayan clan of Yax Ehb Xook, or “First Step Shark”.

By the 19th century, Sebag Montefiore’s novel had become truly international, casting characters from Kamehameha in Hawaii with his 30 wives and his 500-pound girlfriend/adviser Kaahumanu, through King Gezo of Dahomey, whose three thousand “wives” in his army fought for English Victoria and her wise husband and the sentimental Albert, whose 42 descendants went on to thrones across Europe. Another exceptional story follows, all very well told. It’s hard to stop turning pages – and that too, since there are more than a thousand of them.

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One of the most common critics of world history is Jared Diamond Guns, germs and steel Or Yuval Noah Harari Sabines is that it is about the enormous impersonal forces of geography and evolution, and hardly has a place for the very important people who have already made history. The family-centered Sebagh Montefiore alternative is the perfect antidote, reveling in the outspoken quirks and perversions of its human representatives.

A big part of the author’s challenge is that the nature of our evidence changes a lot over time. Until only a few centuries ago, many of our sources were written by wealthy and educated men and most of them were written. This requires him to focus heavily on a narrow elite of wealth and birth, but he tries very hard to give a voice to pre-modern women—in fact, it’s so hard that our perspective becomes distorted in two different ways.

One of them includes the kind of women we hear about. Pericles of Athens is supposed to have said, “Women’s greatest glory, is the least spoken of by men”—implying that young girls tend to get lost in the historian’s gaze.

The women who access the pages of Sebagh Montefiore constitute something of a catalog of delinquents, constantly betraying, torturing and/or doing to death their relatives. Whether Olympias of Macedon or Catherine the Great was truly as troubling as the men put it is still open to debate, but the ways men chose to write about women mean we hear more monsters like Messalina, who – it has been claimed – made Roman Emperor Claudius’ life very miserable, in comparison. With delightful people like Julius Caesar’s daughter, who shared bliss with Pompey the Great until she died in childbirth.

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One of the few things we know about Julia, however, is that when she married Pompey she was only 14 while her new husband was 57. This is a second approach to the exceptional women who feature strongly in the first 600 pages or so. From the scientist may mislead us. Throughout most of history, most marriages — even happy ones — have been startlingly masculine.

Take Julia’s father. When he’s not busy conquering Gaul, subverting the Roman constitution, killing scores of rivals, reforming the calendar, writing a two-volume work on Latin grammar and composing some of the most crisp prose ever written, Julius Caesar found time to seduce the wives of just about everyone. A leading man in Rome, a foundling father with an Egyptian queen and an adulterer with outnumbered slaves. Yet Caesar’s wife had to be above suspicion. And when she failed to meet his standards, she had to go.

The Sebagh-Montefiore families are largely unhappy. Immediate marital misery, such as Napoleon’s neglect of Empress Josephine, is the least of them. I soon lost count of husbands beating wives, wives killing husbands, and parents of both sexes killing unfit children.

But my vote for the greatest house in history goes back to Temujin, the Mongol boy who grew up to be Genghis Khan. His father, Yesugei, kidnapped his mother, Hoelun, from her original husband, impregnated her, and renamed her Temujin Temujin Temujin after a man he killed. Temujin was then forgotten by Yesugei and Hoelun when they moved from camp to camp and did not wander back to retrieve him for a year. Then the Yesugei tribesmen killed him, drove out Hoelun, stole her animals and left her to starve. Temujin supported her by trapping the rats. It wasn’t long until he killed his half-brother, blood brother and men who kidnapped and raped his fiancée, before graduating to several million hapless people from the Pacific Ocean to the Volga, taking their lives “where the lines of writing were erased from the paper,” according to a Persian survivor.

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However, the regularly repeated fact that Genghis was so active in the bedroom that his blood now runs in the veins of 16 million people seems to be wrong. According to a paper published in 2018, it was the migrating Mongols collectivelynot a single sex-crazed killer, who has spread the Y chromosome C3* star cluster across Asia.

Although Tolstoy believed that every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, Sebagh Montefiore all tend to be unhappy in somewhat similar ways. Nobody watched TV dramas like this Succession, or reading any Shakespeare, you would be surprised to read that the families of the rich and famous are awful. But where the dramatists work their magic by showing how these crazy families are bound together by love—sick and twisted as they may be—almost as strong as their hate, the Sebagh-Montefiore families have less redeeming features. As the book went on, I regularly found myself wondering why they hadn’t killed each other even earlier.

Individually, Sebag Montefiore’s vignettes are fascinating, if often in an annoying way. But taken together, hundreds of horror stories could undermine anyone’s faith in human nature. “Leaders who trust no one usually trust family,” the author tells us near the end of the book, but he makes it hard to see why. There seemed to be no end to poisoning, adultery, and incest, not to mention flaying and burning; And if the book has a real flaw, perhaps this is it. “There is such a thing as too much history,” notes Sebag Montefiore.

It wasn’t always obvious, as the family story in Family Story accumulated across 1,250 pages added what each new example added, other than simply moving the narrative forward. The book might have benefited from a smaller focus, with fewer examples chosen to illustrate a tighter range of topics.

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the scientist It begins with a group of roughly one million-year-old footprints excavated on a beach in Habsburgh, England in 2013, which appear to belong to a family; Even the oldest footprints from Latoli in Tanzania, dating back 3.7 million years, may also belong to population groups and/or kinship groups.

There is no doubt that the family is the central institution of human history, and Sebag Montefiore’s look at the last five thousand years is constantly entertaining and intriguing. However, it clearly did not lead him to any concrete conclusions. This interesting book is well worth the read, but there should be more to say.

the scientistFamily history Written by Simon Sebag Montefiore, Weidenfeld & Nicholson, £35 / Knopf $45, 1,344 pages

Ian Morris is professor of classics at Stanford University and author of the book Geography is Destiny: Britain and the World, a 10,000-Year History (Profile personly)

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