Connect with us

Blockchain

Bitcoin bear market will continue “maximum 2-3 more months”

Avatar

Published

on

join us cable A channel to stay up to date on breaking news coverage

Although the majority of the bear market is already behind Bitcoin, it may still suffer more in the near future.

Philip Swift, a well-known analyst on the chain source of his data, LookIntoBitcoinHe analyzes several of the most well-known Bitcoin market indicators, and comes to various conclusions, including this one.

Swift, who co-founded trading platform Decentrader with analyst Filbfilb, believes that despite the current price pressures, Bitcoin will soon emerge from its latest macro decline. Swift provided fresh insights into what the data shows experts and what traders should be aware of in a new interview with Cointelegraph.

Advertisement

How long will the average worker need to wait for the tides to turn and bitcoin to return from its two-year low?

I mentioned that some on-chain metrics like HODL Waves and RHODL Ratio are pointing to a BTC bottom. Can this be expanded? Are you sure that history will repeat this cycle?

Philip Swift (PS): I think we are now at the point of maximum opportunity for Bitcoin. There are several key metrics on LookIntoBitcoin which indicate that we are at the bottom of the main cycle.

We are seeing the percentage of long-term holders peaking (1 year HODL Wave), which usually occurs in the depths of a bear market where those long-term holders don’t want to take profits until the price moves higher.

This has the effect of restricting the supply available in the market, which may cause the price to increase when demand eventually returns.

Bitcoin HODL Waves chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Advertisement

We’re also seeing metrics like the RHODL Ratio pull back in their build-up areas, which shows how much euphoria is now draining from the market. This removal of positive sentiment is necessary to form a bottoming range for BTC.

The RHODL ratio highlights that the cost basis of recent bitcoin purchases is significantly lower than prices paid 1-2 years ago when the market was clearly jubilant and expected +$100k bitcoin. So it is able to tell us when the market will reset in preparation for the start of the next cycle.

Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

How is this bear market different from previous BTC cycles? Is there a silver lining?

note: I’ve been in the 2018/19 bear market and it really felt very similar. All the tourists have left and you only have the crypto-committed enthusiasts in the space. These guys will benefit the most in the next bull run – as long as they don’t go crazy with leveraged trading.

In terms of silver linings, I have a couple! First, we’re actually a fair way through the market cycle, and that’s probably going to be through the majority of this already bear market. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s performance in each cycle since the halving, and we’re already around the surrender points for the previous two cycles.

Bitcoin bull market comparison chart. Source: Philip Swift / decentrader

Advertisement

Second, the context of the macro is completely different now. While it was painful for the bulls to see that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are inextricably linked with the faltering traditional markets, I think we will soon see a show on Bitcoin as confidence in (main) governments crisscross down beyond the point of no return.

I believe this lack of confidence in governments and their currencies will create a rush to private “hard” assets, with Bitcoin being the main beneficiary of this trend in 2023.

What other key metrics in the series would you also recommend to monitor to determine the bottom?

note: Be wary of Twitter characters displaying Bitcoin charts on the chain cut by weird/strange variables. Data like this rarely adds any real value to the story shown by the key key metrics and these characters do so only as a way to get attention rather than genuinely trying to help people.

Two metrics are particularly useful in current market conditions:

The MVRV Z-Score is an important and widely used metric for Bitcoin. It shows the extremes of the bitcoin price as it moves above or below its realized price. The realized price is the average cost basis of all bitcoins purchased. So it can be considered as the approximate break-even level of the market. The price only drops below this level in severe bear market conditions.

Advertisement

When that happens, the indicator on this chart drops into the green “accumulation” area. We are currently in that territory, which indicates that these could be very good levels for a long-term strategic investor to accumulate more bitcoin.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Point Chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Project Boyle takes a multiple look at miners’ returns against their historical standards. When the pointer drops into the green build-up range, as it is now, it shows that many miners are under great stress. This often happens at the lows of the main bitcoin cycle. This indicator indicates that we are approaching a major cycle low for Bitcoin if we haven’t already reached the bottom.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Scheme. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Your fellow analyst, Filbfilb, expects BTC to reverse course in the first quarter of 2023. Do you agree?

note: yes I do. I think traditional markets will probably see a bit more contraction in early 2023. At worst, I see cryptocurrencies going through a rough time until then, so maybe another 2-3 months max. But I think the majority of fear will soon turn toward governments and their currencies – and that’s true. So I expect private assets like Bitcoin to outperform in 2023 and surprise many convicts who say Bitcoin has failed and will go to zero.

October is a historically bad month for stocks – not so much for Bitcoin. How long do you expect BTC to be coherent with riskier assets and what is the catalyst?

note: Bitcoin has been a useful indicator of forward-looking risk to the markets for most of 2022. What will change in 2023 is that market participants will appreciate [that] Most of the risks actually lie with governments, not with traditionally identified “risk” assets. As a result, I anticipate a narrative shift that will benefit Bitcoin next year.

The UK government’s actions on its mini-budget two weeks ago were a major turning point for this potential narrative shift. The markets have shown that they are ready to show their disapproval of bad policy and incompetence. I expect this trend to accelerate not only in the UK but in other countries as well.

Advertisement

Are you surprised by the poor performance of Ethereum after the merger? Are you bullish on ETH in the long-term through supply-burning mechanisms?

note: ETH had a strong short-term narrative with the merger, but it was in the context of a global bear market. So it comes as no surprise that its price performance is lackluster. In the end, general market conditions took over, which was to be expected.

In the long run, Ethereum is set to do an exceptionally good job. It’s a critical component of Web3, which is steadily growing. So I am very optimistic about Ethereum over the next couple of years.

What is the best jurisdiction for a bitcoin/cryptocurrency trader today?

note: Somewhere that is low tax and crypto-friendly. Personally, I think Singapore is great and there is a growing cryptocurrency scene here, which is fun too. I have friends in Bali, and this also looks great and is reasonably priced.

Would you like to add anything?

note: Resist any temptation to abandon cryptocurrencies near the bottom of a bear market. Just be patient and use some good tools to help manage your emotions.

Related

Tamadoge – Play to win a meme coin

Advertisement

Tamadoge logo
  • Earn TAMA in Battles With Doge Pets
  • Maximum supply of 2 billion burning tokens
  • Now listed on OKX, Bitmart, LBank, MEXC and Uniswap
  • Ultra Rare NFTs on OpenSea

Tamadoge logo


join us cable A channel to stay up to date on breaking news coverage

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Blockchain

Never mind FTX – fine art institutions must stay on board in the blockchain

Avatar

Published

on

The truth is that blockchain technology can still provide great benefits, especially in the fine arts. And for those who paid attention, 2022 was an incredible year of normalization Non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Simply put, major enterprises in various sectors have dipped their toes into Web3.

In November, Instagram announced that creators will soon be getting Jobs for making and selling NFTs. Apple similarly announced in September that NFTs can be sold on its app store. Combined, that’s 3.5 billion people (2 billion from Instagram and 1.5 billion from the App Store).

Although each of these major organizations has their own rules and quirks, most notably the fees associated with using their platforms, the truth is that they are still some of the largest platforms in the world and will pay millions to Web3.

Advertisement

It is not just limited to the technology sector. Starbucks and JPMorgan Chase recently teamed up with Polygon, a leading blockchain infrastructure company, to fuel their services. While both partnered for different reasons — Starbucks to launch a loyalty program and JPMorgan Chase to facilitate financial transactions — the variety of legacy companies that have stepped onto the blockchain in serious, multimillion-dollar ways suggests something is going on.

Related: From the New York Times to WaPo, the media is beating Bankman-Fried

It is very easy to throw the baby away with the bathwater and reject cryptocurrency just because of the fraudulent activity of bad actors, such as FTX and Terra, in recent days. But they presented problems with governance, not cryptography or blockchain. Any technology can be abused and misused: surely we don’t want to hold fiat currency or any other asset classes to the same standards?

The fine arts, particularly the performing arts, have yet to recover after nearly two years of cancellations and closings of theaters — not even their performers. Moreover, the sector was already experiencing hardship and decline in the run-up to 2020. Artist wages were on the decline, even factoring in the higher costs they incur as a result of changes in the price of tuition and extras. Costs they incur simply to do their work (for example, vocal lessons and vocal auditions).

These are serious challenges that the sector must face if it is to change its financial and social trajectory. But even after their financial challenges, a new generation of consumers is emerging with an appetite for different kinds of experiences, from the digital assets they can buy and showcase in their social network to the authenticity and more personal connection they want to have with the brands they buy from. Just consider a recent Roblox survey of 1,000 members of the Generation Z community: 73% of Zoomers said they spend money on digital fashion, 66% said they’re excited to wear branded virtual items on Roblox, and almost half look forward to digital fashion. Brands and designers of clothes they could try on that they would never have worn in real life.

Advertisement

This does not mean that consumers want purely digital experiences, but rather that digital becomes a complement to personal goods and services. That should come as a surprise – this is how music really is, with a mix of live broadcasts and in-person concerts. The differences here are the expansion of digital asset types and the fact that the asset lives on the blockchain rather than a central CRM software.

Related: Crypto breaks the Google-Amazon-Apple monopoly over user data

Second, the job market for artists was suffering. While detailed data on performers is difficult to collect, my research using data from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey found that real wages for performing artists have declined over the past decade. International evidence indicates that a similar pattern applies to all countries.

Even worse, artists absorbed more costs during these years as well, which meant their disposable income suffered. Although many artists may stick to their profession because of the love of what they do, the sector will eventually collapse if the business model does not change.

These factors greatly reduce the bargaining power of artists when negotiating contracts. This is why they are generally forced to give up their intellectual property when signing with a record label – giving up their creative content in favor of a larger audience. Unfortunately, however, these agreements rarely deliver on the financial resources they promise.

Advertisement

There is an opportunity for fine arts organizations: using digital assets to simultaneously expand their client base and revamp the way artists are paid so they are financially empowered.

NFTs are just a way to create a line of communication between consumers and organizations using a digital paper trail around intellectual property that guarantees reward based on agreed terms.

While many fine art galleries are already beginning to work with digital artists, other types of fine art institutions, such as theaters, can also use NFTs.

The easiest place to start is with tickets: the Opera House can offer tickets as NFTs, and patrons can transact in a similar way using email and a password, but now the NFT is live on the blockchain.

This offers quite a few benefits, such as the ability for patrons to show their support for Opera on their digital wallet, while reducing fraud and/or hacking.

Advertisement

Related: 5 tips for getting out of a pessimistic market this holiday season

Furthermore, the use of NFTs creates a two-way line of communication between the owners and the institution, allowing the opera house to grant attendees additional privileges (for example, photos from the event).

Web3 is not a panacea. It’s just another technology, but one that offers the potential to radically change the way we interact and interact with one another.

It’s easy to get hung up on all the new language and buzzwords, but an efficient implementation of Web3 architecture in the end should look and feel just as intuitive as you’re used to. The only difference is that the technology now lives on the blockchain.

Fine arts institutions can gain a lot from strategic adoption of these technologies. It just requires an open mind and a willingness to work hard with the right partners.

Advertisement

Christos Makridis He is the Chief Operating Officer and Co-Founder of Living Opera, a Web3 multimedia startup centered on classical music, and a research firm of Columbia Business School and Stanford University. He also holds a Ph.D. in Economics, Management Science, and Engineering from Stanford University.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Blockchain

LUNC/USD achieved another higher price level

Avatar

Published

on


Terra Classic price forecast for today, December 2: LUNC/USD reaches another higher price level

join us cable A channel to stay up to date on breaking news coverage

Terra Classic price forecast for today, December 2: LUNC/USD reaches another higher price level

Terra Classic It is making an impressive upward movement in the market today. Before today, the market overview on the chart depicted a flat market. This flat market reflects a lack of interest among the trader and also indicates a high level of indecision in the market. LUNCUSD previously experienced a strong downward movement in early November, which was also followed by a strong upward movement. However, the bulls failed to hold the price.

Stats for Tera Classic market price:

  • LUNC/USD price now: $0.000183
  • LUNC/USD Market Cap: $1,085,709,379
  • Circulating supply LUNC/USD: 5,980.72 billion
  • Total money supply against USD/USD: 6,873,241,411,025
  • LUNC/USD currency market ranking: #39

key levels

  • Resistance: $0.00020, $0.00025, $0.00030
  • Support: $0.00015, $0.00014, $0.00013

Terra Classic Market Price Analysis: The Indicators View

In today’s trading session, the buyers are putting so much pressure on the market that the price is moving along the path of the November 10 resistance level, which is at $0.0002. This impressive upward move took the price above the 20-day moving average. Also, the general movement of the Bollinger Bands (which is a bearish movement) is changing. However, the concern is whether the bull market can sustain this trend and sustain the bullish price. This is because the trade volume is not that much when compared to the upward movement of the market today. Such moves usually lead to exhaustion on the part of the buyers. Finally, after exhaustion, a downward movement will follow.

Terra Classic price forecast for today, December 2: LUNC/USD reaches another higher price level

LUNC/USD 4-hour chart forecast

The market from the standpoint of the 4-hour chart is showing a lack of interest for traders as most of the candlestick patterns are 4-price dojis. The market also has low trading volume. With these challenges, it may be difficult for the bulls to maintain the trend.

Advertisement

LUNCUSD market may not be able to sustain an upward trend with low trade volume. But this is not the case with Dash 2 Trading. This new project has been doing great since it was in pre-sale. D2T The pre-sale of the token is still available, and it brought in close to $8 million. Dash 2 Trading (D2Tis a unified analytics platform with market-beating intelligence and features to take your trading experience to the next level. Additional team members included, pre-sale dashboard beta launched.

Related

Dash 2 Tadawul – High Potential Pre-Selling

Advertisement

Dash 2 Trading
  • Active pre-sale is live now – dash2trade.com
  • The original code for the crypto signals ecosystem
  • Know Your Customer verified and reviewed

Dash 2 Trading


join us cable A channel to stay up to date on breaking news coverage

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Blockchain

NFT Steez and Victor Solomon talk about building in Web3 and the Metaverse

Avatar

Published

on

On December 2, NFT Steez hosts Alyssa Exposito and Ray Salmond Chatted With Victor Solomon to discuss his journey incorporating his real-world artwork into NFTs and how he is nurturing the community and culture surrounding them.

Solomon’s work centers around basketball, not just the thing, but the sport itself. For Solomon, the inspiration for his work comes from his early childhood when he wanted to play hockey, a sport he didn’t have access to, and his eventual discovery of basketball, which he found more suitable.

Suleiman said:

Advertisement

“Basketball has been such an inspiring platform for me that there is no barrier to entry.”

Solomon says the open nature of basketball is “an incredible parallel to everything that’s going on in Web3” and throughout the episode he explains the symbiotic relationship he experienced building the VesselVerse, basketball in the Metaverse.

Bridging the gap between real life and digital spaces

When asked about the liberating elements of creating and iterating in Web3, Solomon drew attention to the “energizing” nature of the ability to create things that could not exist in real life, such as “a planet inside a hollow basketball,” but also the process of taking physical elements into digital designs and vehicles.

For Solomon, building a group and community to rally around was second nature. His extensive experience in the traditional art world has given him the same insight and structure on how to release digital collectibles.

Inspired by other NFT projects like Nouns, Solomon’s digital collection, VesselVerse works similarly to his real-life pieces, except for one “ship,” or basketball, that is auctioned off every hour.

Unlike physical installations or display pieces in an exhibition, Solomon noted that Creating Within Web3 provides contributors and collectors a broader, larger say in the direction of the work rather than a one-off experience.

Advertisement

Related: A Comic-Con expert explains why storytelling is a key component of successful NFT projects

Opening horizons for cooperation within the community

When it comes to Web3 and the Metaverse, one of the key principles in a successful project or ecosystem is the community around it and building alongside it. Describing how “exciting it is to be able to work alongside a growing community,” Solomon allows diverse collectors “an open forum to visit, discuss, and continually study the direction of a project.”

Rather than shy away from considerations of openness to the community, Solomon embraces the decentralized aspects of building and opening up the community in Web3. Suleiman said:

“What attracts me as a founder is opening up this opportunity for everyone to have a voice.”

For Solomon, the juxtaposition of Web2 and Web3 has brought about what he considers a “huge opening”. As he describes, the collaborative nature and “community spirit” was not something he was able to experience and “animate” in his physical work.

Solomon’s biggest challenge currently is re-educating a part of the ecosystem that may have had bad experiences in the crypto and NFT market. However, Solomon suggests that the adversity is worth enduring because the promise of Web3 is so much greater than any given negative experience.

Advertisement

To hear more of the conversation, tune in and Listen Tune in to the full episode of NFT Steez and be sure to mark your calendar for the next episode on December 16 at 12 PM ET.