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Artificial intelligence triumphs over diplomacy

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Diplomacy is a 7-player game where players must persuade, cajole, coordinate, strategize, deceive, and lie to each other in order to take over the world. For the first time, he achieved artificial intelligence Success in diplomacy:

Over 40 games of diplomacy with 82 human players including 5277 messages over 72 hours of play, CICERO has more than doubled the average score of other players and ranked in the top 10% of players!

Note that this AI isn’t just a big language model, it’s a strategic engine connected to the language model – thus it figures out what it wants to do and then persuades others, including gaining sympathy, deception, and lying, to convince others to do what you want to do.

This is some correspondence from one match. Can you tell what artificial intelligence is?

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CaptainMeme, a professional diplomat gamer, is passing through The entire Blitz game is here. What’s interesting is that he barely gets hung up on the AI ​​aspect and treats it like a game with 6 other very good players.

paper and further discussion over here. Keep in mind that because the game is zero-sum to do well, the AI ​​must convince humans to do what is not in their best interest. We really need to invest more in the alignment problem.

addition: Austria and France were AI.

the post Artificial intelligence triumphs over diplomacy Debuted marginal revolution.



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Economic

FirstFT: CBI warns of a one-year recession in the UK

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good morning. This article is an in situ version of our website FirstFT the news. Subscribe to our site AsiaAnd the Europe/Africa or The Americas A release to send straight to your inbox every weekday morning

The United Kingdom will fall into recession for a year in 2023 As “stagflation” the combination of high inflation, negative growth and declining business investment affects the economy, according to Britain’s largest business group.

The Central Bank of Iraq warned that the gross domestic product will decline by 0.4 percent in 2023, which is a decrease from its previous forecast for growth of 1 percent set in June. She said consumer spending would decline throughout the year as inflation remained above the BoE’s target.

The lobbyist gave its own gloomy forecasts for business investment, which it said would start to decline from the middle of next year when the current “super-deductible” tax break scheme designed to boost investment ends.

Business investment is expected to be 9 per cent below pre-Covid pandemic levels by the end of 2024 – the equivalent of around £5 billion.

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CBI Director General Tony Danker warned:[Companies] Seeing potential growth opportunities, but not having ‘reasons to believe’ in the face of headwinds causes investment to pause.”

The UK’s economic outlook is among the weakest of the developed countries covered in the CBI report, with only Germany’s GDP set to decline at a slightly faster pace next year.

1. Europe cuts gas demand by a quarter Interim data from commodity analytics firm ICIS showed that gas demand in the European Union was 24 percent lower than the five-year average last month, after a similar decline in October, in the latest evidence of the bloc’s success in reduce its dependence on Russian energy Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

2. War and weather to keep food prices high Bad weather and war events are set in Ukraine Keep food prices high Despite signs of moderation in global commodity markets, economists and agriculture experts have warned. Costs are likely to remain well above pre-pandemic levels because wars and droughts limit producers’ ability to increase supply.

The line graph of annual percentage change shows that the moderation in food prices in world markets has not yet interfered with the decline in consumer inflation.

3. The European Union is pledging to simplify aid rules to compete with Biden’s climate package The European Union should “Simplify and adapt” its rules On government aid to counter the US $369 billion climate package, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday in her first public response to Washington’s support for green energy. EU leaders said the plan risked “dividing” the transatlantic union by enticing European companies to relocate.

4. The court paves the way for the sale of the Belgian steel mills in Gupta Can Sanjeev Gupta He loses control of his steel mills in Belgium After a court in Liège last week upheld a request from workers at its Liberty Steel subsidiary to begin restructuring. The court appointed a legal representative to supervise the sale of two factories at Flémalle and Tilleur.

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5. A report calling for the suppression of asylum seekers in the UK Britain’s Home Secretary, Soyla Braverman, has welcomed a report by a centre-right think tank calling for an amendment Great repression of asylum seekers who come to Britain using illegal routes. The report says that “if necessary” the UK should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights to address the problem.

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economic indicators S&P Global released the November Composite PMI for the European Union, the Services PMI for Russia, and the Composite PMI with Cips for the United Kingdom. In the US, ISM publishes the Non-Manufacturing PMI.

WHO meeting The World Health Organization is meeting in Geneva to review the new pandemic control convention.

Brussels bombing trial Belgium’s largest criminal case against suspects in the 2016 Brussels attacks that killed 32 people and left hundreds injured has been brought to court.

Saint Nicholas Ev Holland celebrates the pre-Sinterklaas night.

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cricket England and Pakistan face off on the final day of their first Test match in Rawalpindi.

What else do we read

FT Person of the Year: Volodymyr Zelensky The 44-year-old Ukrainian president, who before the February invasion was seen by many as something of a joke, embodies the resilience of his people and has become the standard-bearer of liberal democracy. He has earned a place in history for him An exceptional display of ride and stability.

“I wish our students would be more resilient to bad feedback.” She is preparing to step down this month Louise Richardson, Vice-Chancellor of the University of OxfordHe talks to Henry Mance about cancellation culture, public schools, why universities shouldn’t be corporations, and the need for free speech.

Louise Richardson says:
“I worry that academics are afraid of taking on public office because they just don’t want to be subservient to social media,” says Louise Richardson. © Charlie Bibby / FT

How Sam Bankman-Fried blurred the lines between FTX and Alameda In an interview with the Financial Times, the founder of FTX said he did He isolated himself from trading and risk management in the Alameda Research business, which he owns majority, but he also admitted his involvement more closely than he had previously disclosed. “We kind of lost track of the spot risks,” he said.

Find the next market break With soaring inflation, soaring interest rates, and financial shocks sucking liquidity out of the markets, and sudden price moves sparking malicious margin calls and forced sell-offs, where will the next shock come from? Here are the corners of the market Which is closely watched by decision makers and investors.

The 4-Day Week: Does It Really Work? About 70 British companies, involving 3,300 employees, took part in a four-day-a-week trial, with researchers at Cambridge University, Boston College and Oxford University measuring the impact of a shorter week on productivity and well-being. This is what four companies discovered.

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residence

Instead of “perfectly” renovating the house, bring it back to imperfection. Maiden outdated – and there A fresh and sustainable aesthetic It displays the scars of the past while preserving the building’s history and collective memory.

Restoration of Clandon Park House in Surrey, which was destroyed by fire in 2015, will preserve parts of its burnt condition
Restoration of Clandon Park House in Surrey, destroyed by fire in 2015, will preserve parts of its burnt condition © National Trust Images / James Do

Thank you for reading and remember that you can Add FirstFT to myFT. You can also choose to receive a FirstFT push notification every morning on the app. Send your recommendations and feedback to firstft@ft.com

Climate chart: an explanation – Learn about the most important weather data for the week. Participation over here

Long story short – The biggest and best-read stories in one smart email. Participation over here


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Philippines Cuts 2023 GDP Growth Target to 6.0-7.0% By Reuters

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© Reuters. A vendor settles into a public market in Quezon City, Philippines, August 9, 2022. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez/Files

MANILA (Reuters) – The Philippines cut its growth target for 2023 to 6.0%-7.0% from 6.5%-8.0%, an interagency government panel said on Monday, taking into account the impact of a weaker peso and higher inflation.

The government has also revised its foreign exchange rate assumptions for the period 2022-2024. It now expects the peso to trade against the US dollar at 54-55 in 2022 compared to a previous forecast of 51-53, at 55-59 in 2023, and at 53-57 in 2024, compared to a previous forecast of 51-55 for 2023. onwards.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said in a briefing that the growth target for 2024-2028 has been maintained at 6.5%-8.0%.

The peso has recovered slightly against the dollar after falling to a record low of 59 in recent weeks, thanks to a series of interest rate increases by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilpinas (BSP) to keep pace with the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening.

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It was trading at 55.73-55.88 on Monday.

Officials said the economy is on track to meet this year’s growth target of 6.5%-7.5%, faster than the 5.6% expansion in 2021, after the government removed nearly all COVID-19 restrictions and allowed more business activities to resume.

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India’s housing market to remain resilient, defying global downtrend: Reuters poll by Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a residential and commercial building in Kolkata, India on November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/File Photo

Written by Meloni Purohit and Indradeep Ghosh

BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s home prices will rise steadily in the next few years, roughly in line with overall economic growth, with low chances of a significant slowdown next year, real estate experts polled by Reuters said.

The findings highlight how the housing market, one of the largest employers in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people, is likely to remain a stable contributor to growth in Asia’s third-largest economy in the future.

Average house prices in India were expected to rise by 5.0% over each of the next three years, lagging behind the current rate of consumer price inflation, after rising by 7% in 2022, according to November-December. One survey of 11 experts in the real estate market.

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Projections for 2023 range widely between 1% and 13%.

But the outlook for India has been relatively stable compared to major housing markets in advanced economies, where prices are expected to mostly fall after a pandemic-driven boom with central banks aggressively raising interest rates.

“The growth trajectory is definitely to the upside, but expectations of higher interest rates, which could act as a temporary demand disrupter, may cause developers to hold back on price increases in 2023,” noted Rohan Sharma, Senior Director at JLL Research.

Graphic: Reuters Survey: India’s Housing Market https://www.reuters.com/graphics/INDIA-PROPERTY/POLL/zgvobmxmepd/chart.png

The RBI has also raised the repurchase rate, now at 5.90%, several times this year since May, by 190 basis points in total, with the potential for a few more hikes before a pause.

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The relatively modest interest rate risk partly explains why all but one of the 10 analysts who answered an additional question said the chances of a significant housing market slowdown over the next year were low.

A regional breakdown of the latest Reuters survey data showed that prices in Bengaluru, Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai are also expected to rise by an average of 5%-6% over the next three years, in line with the national average.

A steady increase in home prices—which have nearly doubled over the past decade—has worsened affordability, dampening the hopes of many aspiring first-time homeowners.

Home prices would have to fall an average of just 6.25% from peak to trough to make them affordable, according to the average response to an additional question, with the highest estimate at 17.5%.

Nine of the 11 respondents said an economic slowdown or price hikes would be the biggest challenge for first-time homebuyers.

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“While India … has been very resilient amid global turmoil, the chances of a slowdown in India cannot be ruled out,” said Anuj Puri, President of ANAROCK Property Consultants.

“If jobs are affected, the share of real estate purchases is likely to decline.”

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