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Analysis – US private energy producers tap into adequate financing as bank lines dry up by Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The sun is behind a crane pumping crude oil in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo/File Photo

Written by Shankar Ramakrishnan and David French

(Reuters) – Private U.S. oil and gas companies are increasingly turning to a specialized financing structure that securitizes their production, providing a means of financing for producers and owners as traditional sources become more expensive or simply dry up.

Known as PDP Asset-Backed Securitization (ABS), this product takes revenue generated from companies’ proven oil and gas operations, development, and production (PDP) and uses that cash flow as collateral for a bond that is sold to investors.

With pressure on banks by stakeholders to restrict loans to the oil and gas sector because of its environmental impact, private energy producers—who rely more on banking lines than their listed peers—can maintain access to external financing through this specialized product.

“This product resonates with private exploration and production companies that have relied primarily on handguns from commercial banks, but the availability of such financing has declined,” said Daniel Allison, partner and energy specialist at law firm Sedley Austin LLP.

While the first-rated PDP securitization was completed in September 2019 by Raisa Energy, volatile commodity prices and a wave of producer bankruptcies in 2020 hampered the initial application. However, in the past year or so, as commodity prices hit multi-year highs in 2022, companies and investors are increasingly taking notice.

More than $3.9 billion of energy-related ABS were sold in the public and private markets in 2022, compared to $1.2 billion in 2021, according to Guggenheim Securities. The investment bank helped, among other things, arrange the $750 million ABS that Jonah Energy sold in October — the largest securitization currently completed in PDP.

One such adopter is PureWest Energy, Wyoming’s largest producer, which sold two such deals: a $365 million paper in August, following a $600 million issue in November 2021.

Ty Harrison, PureWest’s chief financial officer, explained that PDP’s securitization ring fences off oil and natural gas wells so that the cash from them goes to debt service. A robust hedging strategy ensures that movements in commodity prices do not inhibit the ability to pay investors.

A fenced bond typically carries investment-grade ratings, which means energy producers, which can be rated junk, can raise money at lower costs: the interest rate is roughly 2 to 3 percentage points lower than traditional alternatives such as term loans or loans, Harrison said. The high-yield bonds.

There are also pricing advantages for investors, most commonly insurance companies, said one investor who did not wish to be named, since these PDP ABS pay at least 100-150 basis points more than comparable comparable corporate bonds with an investment grade rating.

growing appeal

In addition to financing day-to-day operations, private equity firms that own energy producers are exploring the use of PDP securities as a payday investor.

The attraction stems from the inability of acquirers to sell or list companies at a better valuation than simply collecting profits from rising commodity prices. The securitization effectively collects profits and distributes them to investors as a temporary bonus, allowing owners time to find another exit during the life of the ABS—usually three to five years.

Power Partners is one example. It is currently pursuing an ABS deal, after Reuters reported in May that owners Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors and Warburg Pincus were trying to sell the company.

“There will be more such deals in the future as private equity holders look to liquidate assets that have not achieved a reasonable sell valuation,” said Pete Bowden, global head of industry, energy and infrastructure at investment bank Jefferies.

The PDP ABS product is not for everyone: it requires oil and gas wells to produce at a consistent pace with low drop rates, which are typically older drilling sites. New shale wells have intense initial production, as hydrocarbons are released through the hydraulic fracturing process, before rapidly imploding.

Sidley’s Allison said there is plenty of appetite among those whose production is viable: half a dozen companies have approached his company this year to arrange PDP securitizations, with several others in early-stage talks.

“We will see further growth in the issuance of ABS next year, as upstream companies increasingly exploit the market as an important component of their capital structure,” said Cory Wishingrad, head of fixed income at Guggenheim Securities.

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Economic

We need to pay more attention to skewed economic signals

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The writer is chair of Queen’s College, Cambridge and advisor to Allianz and Gramercy

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world, especially for advanced economies that have a consequential impact on the global economy and markets.

The effects have been seen in declining living standards, increasing inequality, increasing borrowing costs, stock and bond market losses, and occasional financial mishaps (fortunately small and so far contained).

In this new year, recession, both actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driving seat of the global economy and is likely to replace it. It’s a development that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wide range of possible outcomes — something that a growing number of bond investors seem to be aware of more than their equity counterparts.

International Monetary Fund iYou will likely review soon Her economic growth forecasts again, predicting that “a third of the world will be hit by recession this year”. What is particularly notable to me about these worsening global prospects is not only that the world’s three major economic regions – China, the European Union and the United States – are slowing down together, but also that this is happening for different reasons.

In China, a chaotic exit from the wrong Covid-19 policy is undermining demand and causing more supply disruptions. Such headwinds to domestic and global economic well-being will continue as long as China fails to improve the coverage and effectiveness of its vaccination efforts. The strength and sustainability of the subsequent recovery will also require that the country more vigorously renew a growth model that can no longer rely on greater globalization.

The European Union continues to deal with energy supply disruptions as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Strengthening inventory management and reorientation of energy supplies is well advanced in many countries. However, it is not yet sufficient to lift immediate constraints on growth, let alone resolve long-term structural headwinds.

The United States has the least problematic view. The headwinds to growth are due to the Fed’s struggle to contain inflation after mischaracterizing rate increases as fleeting and then initially being too timid to adjust monetary policy.

The Fed’s shift to an aggressive front-load of interest rate hikes came too late to prevent the spread of inflation in the services sector and wages. As such, inflation is likely to remain stubborn at around 4 percent, be less sensitive to interest rate policies and expose the economy to greater risk for accidents from additional policy errors that undermine growth.

The uncertainties facing each of these three economic areas suggest that analysts should be more careful in reassuring us that recessionary pressures will be “short and shallow”. They need to be open, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transient.

This is especially important because these diverse drivers of recessionary risk make financial fragility more threatening and policy shifts more difficult, including potentially Japan. Get out of interest rate control Policy. The range of possible outcomes is extraordinarily large.

On the one hand, a better policy response, including improving the supply response and protecting the most vulnerable populations, can counteract the global economic slowdown and, in the case of the United States, avert a recession.

On the other hand, additional policy errors and market turmoil can lead to self-reinforcing vicious cycles with rising inflation and rising interest rates, weakening credit and compressed earnings, and stressing market performance.

Judging by market prices, more bond investors are better understanding this, including by refusing to follow the Fed’s interest rate guidance this year. Instead of a sustainable path to higher rates for 2023, they believe recessionary pressures will lead to cuts later this year. If true, government bonds would provide the yield and potential for badly missed portfolio risk mitigation in 2022.

However, parts of the stock market is still weakly bearish pricing. Reconciling these different scenarios is more important than investors. Without better alignment within markets and with policy signals, the positive economic and financial outcomes we all desire will be no less likely. They will also be challenged by the risk of more unpleasant outcomes at a time of less economic and human resilience.

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Macro hedge funds end 2022 higher, investors say, while many others take big losses By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Svea Herbst Baylis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Some hedge funds betting on macroeconomic trends have boasted of double and even triple-digit gains for 2022, while other high-profile companies that have long been on technology stocks have suffered heavy losses in volatile markets, investors said.

Rokos Capital, run by Chris Rokos and one of a handful of so-called global macro companies, gained 51% last year. Fund investors this week, who asked not to be identified, said Brevan Howard Asset Management, the company where Rokos once worked, posted a gain of 20.14% and Caxton Associates returned 16.73%.

Haider Capital Management’s Haider Jupiter Fund rose 193%, an investor said.

Data from hedge fund research showed that many macro managers have avoided crumbling stock markets that have been rocked by rapid interest rate increases and geopolitical turmoil, including the war in Ukraine, to rank among the best performers in the hedge fund industry. The company’s macro index rose 14.2% while the general index of hedge funds fell 4.25%, its first loss since 2018.

Equity hedge funds, where the bulk of the industry’s roughly $3.7 trillion in assets are invested, fared worse with a loss of 10.4%, according to HFR data. And while that beat the broader stock market’s loss of 19.4%, some high-profile funds posted even bigger losses.

Tiger Global Management lost 56% while Whale Rock Capital Management ended the year with a 43% loss and Maverick Capital lost 23%. Coatue Management ended 2022 with a loss of 19%.

But not all companies that bet on technology stocks suffered. John Thaler JAT Capital finished the year with a 3.7% gain after fees after a 33% increase in 2021 and a 46% gain in 2020.

Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE::), where founder Dan Och is fighting the company’s current CEO in court over his salary increase, posted a 13% drop.

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, which bet that Elon Musk would be forced to buy Twitter, ended the year up 37% while Rick Sandler’s Eminence Capital rose 7%.

A number of so-called multi-manager companies where teams of portfolio managers bet on a variety of sectors also boast positive returns and have been able to deliver on their promise that hedge funds can deliver better returns in distressed markets.

Balyasny’s Atlas Fund (NYSE: Enhanced) gained 9.7%, while Point72 Asset Management gained 10%. Millennium Management gained 12% while Carlson Capital ended the year with a 7% gain.

Representatives for the companies either did not respond to requests for comment or declined to comment.

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German automakers point to easing supply chain problems

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Sales at BMW and Mercedes-Benz jumped in the final months of 2022 as the German premium auto brands indicated supply chain problems plaguing the industry were abating.

Automakers around the world have experienced parts shortages since the pandemic, especially semiconductors, leaving many of them with large fleets of incomplete vehicles that can’t be delivered to customers.

BMW and Mercedes each said their full-year vehicle deliveries fell last year by 4.8 percent and 1 percent, respectively, due to Suppliers Bottlenecks as well as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

But supply pressures eased in the last quarter of the year, as BMW recorded a 10.6 percent jump in sales, with 651,798 vehicles delivered, and Mercedes fulfilling 540,800 orders, up 17 percent from the same period in 2022.

BMW He said the main effects of supply chain bottlenecks and continued lockdowns were felt in the first six months of the year, adding that “sales were steadily picking up in the second half.”

Mercedes boss Ula Kallenius told the Financial Times last week that the list of problems in the auto supply chain was declining, but added that long waits for cars would continue into 2023.

“One chip is enough to be vital [ . . .] Missing, and then you can’t finish the car, even if you have everything else.

Both brands recorded strong sales growth electric car. Mercedes, which last week announced a plan to build 10,000 charging docks, said EV shipments grew 124 percent to 117,800 last year compared with its predecessor.

Similarly, BMW reported strong growth in electric vehicle sales, with deliveries of fully electric vehicles doubling last year to 215,755.

Analysts at Bank of America said that sales of electric vehicles, including hybrid cars, reached a historic peak last November, with 1.1 million units sold. They attributed this largely to the upcoming phase-out of customer subsidies in Germany.

Participate in Mercedes BMW and BMW prices held steady Tuesday morning as investors priced in an image of an improving showing.

Rolls-Royce, a subsidiary of BMW, announced Monday that sales have hit a 119-year record, driven by strong demand in the United States, its largest market.

The luxury brand has been largely unaffected by the semiconductor pressure, mainly because it makes relatively few compounds and therefore needs fewer chips.

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